BITCOIN

Frequentlyhere

Indeed, @bugbyte_2.  Looking back to the first pages of this thread, the ever-changing "obvious truths" are that much more apparent. 

April 2021, just 18 months ago.

darren232002 said:

Buying Bitcoin will probably be the best investment of your life. Most people saying that Bitcoin isnt an investment and that it is gambling have very little idea why BTC is valuable. Look around, its not conspiracy theorists and rednecks buying Bitcoin, its rocket scientists, CEO's, institutions and computer programmers/STEM graduates. These guys know the way the world is going. JP Morgan in 2017 said BTC is a ponzi, in 2021 they are advising their clients to put a % of their portfolio in it and predicting prices in the $140k range. Citigroup threw out a $300k+ price prediction. These aren't idiots - they are the institutions you trust to manage your 'investments.' 

Lastly, if you know anything at all about the crypto space right now, you would know its possible to get 10% APY interest on stable coins very easily for gods sake. That is, coins denominated in USD. You deposit $10k now, you'll have $11k next year. No exposure to volatility and all denominated in USD. The only risk you have is (1) GBP/USD risk and (2) counter-party risk, which is almost negligible if you stick to the big providers. With a bit of work and knowledge, you can find 30% interest. I've been personally getting 100%+ APY interest paid and compounded daily for the last 3 months in one of the safest projects out there.

I'm not really interested in having a long discussion with people that are still babbling about ponzi's, tulips, intrinsic value or hexadecimal numbers in cyberspace. If you don't get it, I don't have time to explain it to you. But I would strongly encourage people to look in to this space because it will be the greatest wealth creation event of my generation. Its literally the internet version 2.0.

So, yes,  $140k bitcoin, $300k bitcoin. Not hearing so much of that these days.

You can "for gods sake" just earn 10% yield on stablecoins. Of course.

"Stick to the big providers" for "negligible counter party risk". That's worked out so well.

Bit of work and knowledge, you can find "30% interest"  - I wonder where he got that from, Celsius?

"Its literally the internet version 2.0" - A ridiculous statement which he was then politely challenged on and responded scornfully about semantics despite him expressing it as a literal fact.

This was all only 18 months ago, hardly back in the aeons of time.

Aside from Darren's comments specifically, reading back reminds me of just how and why I and many others (R/buttcoin at 145k members now) grew to really detest the crypto space.

You come curious to learn about whether crypto is actually a good thing to invest in or generally 'do'  ask a question or two, and fairly shortly end up being told to HFSP (that features in the very next post in the thread I think).

You ask what activites actually generate 30% yield as nothing can for no risk, and you're now " a boomer" for some reason.

Ask any awkward question? Well, you clearly need to do some research in vague unspecified areas.

To be fair, i think the space has changed a lot currently, the buttcoin crew have almost gone too far in gaining retribution. There are some very sad tales of people losing a lot of money in this space, and they don't all deserve mockery. 

On the other hand, how quickly would the "HFSP" attitude return if we see another boom for some reason? 

Frequentlyhere

Oh man, sorry, but this is just too entertaining.

darren232002 said:

Did you hear me say that I'm currently getting 100%+ APY on some of my money in crypto? Paid and compounded whenever I want (hourly if I choose). I think that counts as generating wealth.

I can loan out my crypto in decentralised finance protocols and those networks will pay me 80% of the profits they make from using my capital. Your bank currently has access to essentially free money from the central bank, charges people 3% (mortgages), 7-10% (personal loans) or 20%+ (CCs) and yet gives you 0.1% interest... All that profit the banks make - crypto is going to eat it all.

You might have thought that the very briefest inspection of the idea of being paid 100% interest off the back of lending your capital to a third party using it for 3% mortgages and 10% loans might raise a few red flags, no? 

But apparently not.

Adyinvestment

Unfortunately, this thread has for some time become quite toxic.

I very much doubt it will ever be a meaningful discussion of the thread title.

Frequentlyhere

On the contrary, I think it's quite useful in answering the question to look back and observe the revolving door of pro-bitcoin arguments.

From the sceptics side, it's also pretty noticeable that, in stark contrast, the arguments have remained largely consistent. I'm not particularly cherry picking the below.

November 2020:

BananaRepublic said:

Bitcoin is gambling. It has no intrinsic value and noone knows what it will do tomorrow, or next year. As far as I can see it is supported by a large group of speculators who use it as an investment rather than a means to buy goods. Doubtless there are also some criminals who like the anonymous nature of Bitcoin, but they are not the core Bitcoin owners.

On a related but important issue, Bitcoin has two severe flaws. The first is that mining, or the creation of new currency, consumes massive amounts of energy. The second is that because it uses a distributed leger, a transaction, or the buying and selling of Bitcoin, consumes huge amounts of energy. Basically it is totally impractical for real world use, and is an ecological disaster. So, if you want to become rich, or poor, and at the same time screw the planet, go ahead and invest gamble. See here for details:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48853230

It is a shame that Bitcoin unlike Ethereum couldn't at least have resolved the worst environmental aspects to it, especially in current circumstances.

Adyinvestment

  Facepalm

Millyonare

Bitcoin is down -77% from its all-time peak 1 year ago (in Nov 2021). That's one of the biggest and fastest collapses of any major money / currency in history. It feels a bit like the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar in the 2000s. Some Bitcoin bagholders may never see a profit, even if they hold for the next 50 years.

fwor

Millyonare said:

Bitcoin is down -77% from its all-time peak 1 year ago (in Nov 2021).

While that's true, it's also true that 2 years ago it was almost exactly where it is now, so if you bought any more than 2 years ago you would still be up (or a few months earlier than that, if accounting for inflation).

Having said that, it seems that "psychological barriers" are important to the price, and it has just sagged significantly below the $16,000 "barrier". It makes me wonder whether the forced liquidation of FTX's crypto assets is to an extent the cause of the current dip - in which case the dip may not be very long-lived.

Frequentlyhere

fwor said:

Millyonare said:

Having said that, it seems that "psychological barriers" are important to the price, and it has just sagged significantly below the $16,000 "barrier". It makes me wonder whether the forced liquidation of FTX's crypto assets is to an extent the cause of the current dip - in which case the dip may not be very long-lived.

I mean, who knows, but I'd say that there's a good chance that the knock-on impacts of FTX collapsing still have a good way to go.

It's now reported that Genesis may go bankrupt (after having initially declared no impact from FTX) which itself might have further knock on impacts that ultimately hit the price.  Genesis is in the same group as Grayscale BTC trust which holds 633,000 BTC  (ticker GBTC) and is now trading at a huge discount to it's theoretical value in the bitcoin it holds.

This is why I was saying the other day that it seems to me one of the worst times ever to buy bitcoin. At least back from June -> October the price was just trundling along without direction, but now there's an ongoing contagion amongst crypto firms and the BTC price has not fallen particularly far. There's a lot of downside risk there.

But again, who knows, the 'degen mentality' could see some perverse boom for all I know.  But I genuinely think it looks an incredibly risky time to buy if you're at all interested in the price.  Just because something falls in price by 75%, there's absolutely no reason it can't fall 75% again (talking generally here, not making a prediction).

User232002

Frequentlyhere said:

A totally outrageous set of claims is made out of line with all known reality, refuted quite simply, and then you receive a response where both your refutation and the original claim are altered. But then multiplied over several points so that it would take hours just to defuse the most patently ludicrous scenarios.

Interesting because I'm the only one posting numbers, calculations and data. Everyone else wants to hand wave these away with words and not engage with them.

Frequentlyhere said:

I'm also just not a fan of the incredulous tone. It's one thing having 'out there' views, but I'm finding it wearing for these being expressed as not only an opinion, but an inevitable truth that should be obvious (obvious!) to anyone with eyes. I mean of course the $ is going to collapse under the weight of impossible to control inflation, of course!

I'm not here to convince you to buy Bitcoin. I'm here to point out that Bitcoiners want to create a parallel financial system that will lead to better prosperity for all because the current system is broken. Its baffling to me that people take such an issue with that and seek to choke it off; I'm not turning up to flat earther events insistently telling them that the earth is round, my attitude is 'let them be.'

I'm also here, as I've said several times, to point out that you all had the chance to invest at reasonable levels and chose not to. So I hope you take responsibility for your own mistake later on and don't come asking for 'windfall taxes' on the people that had the incredulity to figure this out before you.

Frequentlyhere said:

So, yes,  $140k bitcoin, $300k bitcoin. Not hearing so much of that these days.

Those price predictions came from JP Morgan and Citigroup.

Frequentlyhere said:

You can "for gods sake" just earn 10% yield on stablecoins. Of course.

You could. And now you can't, as I made clear in a reply a few days ago. But it was there and it was very profitable.

And yes, stablecoins have no exposure to volatility. That's kind of the point; but it does show how you continue to misuse my statements and present them as something they are not.

Frequentlyhere said:

"Stick to the big providers" for "negligible counter party risk". That's worked out so well.

I've only ever talked in depth here about Coinbase, Binance & Uniswap. All three of which have always been and are still functioning. 

Frequentlyhere said:

Bit of work and knowledge, you can find "30% interest"  - I wonder where he got that from, Celsius?

Nope.

Frequentlyhere said:

You ask what activites actually generate 30% yield as nothing can for no risk, and you're now " a boomer" for some reason.

Except I didn't. I actually posted exactly where the yield came from. Several times. Unfortunately, the people involved had no idea what contango or backwardation was and so thought it was magic. 

Frequentlyhere said:

Oh man, sorry, but this is just too entertaining.

darren232002 said:

Did you hear me say that I'm currently getting 100%+ APY on some of my money in crypto? Paid and compounded whenever I want (hourly if I choose). I think that counts as generating wealth.

I can loan out my crypto in decentralised finance protocols and those networks will pay me 80% of the profits they make from using my capital. Your bank currently has access to essentially free money from the central bank, charges people 3% (mortgages), 7-10% (personal loans) or 20%+ (CCs) and yet gives you 0.1% interest... All that profit the banks make - crypto is going to eat it all.

You might have thought that the very briefest inspection of the idea of being paid 100% interest off the back of lending your capital to a third party using it for 3% mortgages and 10% loans might raise a few red flags, no? 

But apparently not.

Oh dear. Are you not able to understand that those two statements clearly aren't referring to the same thing? That's why they are presented in different paragraphs. You realise that '80% of profits' doesnt mean '80% APR,' right? 

How on earth you can take the above paragraph and interpret it in any way shape or form to be akin to me saying 'they are charging 10% but giving me 100% profit and this is sustainable,' is absolute madness.

The project that paid out 80% of profits was AAVE. Its still running, liquidates loans according to code and has experienced no insolvency issues. The loan/deposit rate is variable and has never been anywhere close to 100%. 

The project I was referring to getting 100% on was CAKE, which I bought at $2 - $3, got 100%+ APR on for something like 9 months, before selling it around $20. 

User232002

bugbyte_2 said:

Yes governments print money. However, Bitcoin literally blinked into existence by 'printing' itself, and continues to 'print' itself to this day.
  

Governments print money when a group of men in a room agree its the right thing to do. Bitcoin's monetary issuance is determined by code and known to all. It only changes if a majority of people on the network agree for it to change.

These are not the same thing. The former is far more susceptible to abuse.

bugbyte_2 said:

Yes printing money is inflationary and leads to a higher debt to GDP ratio. But as MSE is a UK site, this ratio is currently 98% (Sept 2022) - not 130% +. 

The discussion is logically and intellectually consistent because I've also been using US expenditure and revenue figures. The USD is actually in the best position out of all fiat currencies; king fiat. The EUR & JPY are worse. GBP somewhere in the middle. The math all ends the same way.

bugbyte_2 said:

You may note that 98% is less than half the ratio found in the late 40's, early 50's, just before the 'white heat of technology boom' which meant my parents generation had the greatest increase in living standards ever. Not at all bad really.
  

Because those governments took on debt to build infrastructure. Not to bail out unprofitable businesses, mail it to people to stay inside or pay their heating bills. Plus, completely different demographics with an aging, retiring boomer generation seeking to claim their increasing medical costs and unfunded pension liabilities from younger generations that have already been screwed over financially.

Technology hasn't helped the situation; its created more wealth inequality, not less.

bugbyte_2 said:

Have governments inflated debt away before? Of course they have, and they will do so again in the future. Yes the value of your £ goes down but only if you do not do something about it, like buying inflation proof assets.
  

People on here will tell you that the stock market and real estate aren't guaranteed returns. So what are these inflation proof assets that come with no risk? They don't exist.

Why should a person have to take on risk just to preserve their purchasing power of money that they have rightfully earned due to the fruits of their labour? This fiat system just serves to keep us all on a treadmill where you have to continually invest (read: take on risk) or produce. 

bugbyte_2 said:

And anyway, who owns that debt? Our government (who we 'own') sells debt to the Bank of England (who we also own) - Approximately a third of the UK National Debt is owned by the British government due to the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme, so approximately a third of the cost of servicing the debt is paid by the government to itself. 
  

Handwaving economics. Having a money printer that you've called something else, cloaked in a thin veneer of 'independence' doesnt change the de facto status quo, which is that governments print their own money. We know this is false because it breaks at scale. If this is true, how about we just print several trillion GBP and make everyone a millionaire? Its Ok, we 'own' the debt. Everything will be dandy.

The problem is going to come when market participants start to realise this and price in default risk. At which point, the government will need to implement YCC. JPY and EUR is already there. GBP getting there. Of course some market particpants can't 'realise' this due to mandates ie. pension funds - but you're just trading one problem for another because the government will have to print their shortfalls rather than tell millions of pensioners that they will have to go without.

bugbyte_2 said:

And finally - Here is a list of countries with very low Debt to GDP ratio. Of the 20 countries listed, most of them (bits of China, Russia, Middle East countries) I definitely would not like to live in due to human rights violations / lack of freedom and the rest are so small they are not comparable, and will probably be under water very soon anyway. 
  

These countries will do very well over the next few decades. Reduced dependence on the west (disposing of treasuries), hard assets (gold), positive trade balances (we buy more from them than they do from us) and an array of natural resources that Europe doesn't have. These countries have little incentive to sign up to a reserve currency system that doesn't benefit them; Russia is essentially telling the west that they don't want printed fake money in return for their natural resources. 

bugbyte_2 said:

Oh the fun of being a reserve currency. 
  

This is vile. 

The 'fun' of being a reserve currency is that you get to plunder the wealth of, usually incredibly poor, people that have saved in your currency (by dilution) because it happens to be safer than their local basket case currency. Its the Cantillon effect on a country wide level. That's not fun; its subjugation.

But yet, you are so self righteous incessantly banging on about climate change and human rights.

Like most people in the west nowadays you have no interest in fairness, only what preserves your status and wealth at the expense of the rest of the world.