BITCOIN

Gary1984

The thing I just don't get is that absolutely any non-zero price is too high. There's nothing to measure it against to suggest when the price may be 'about right'. 

I guess with actual currencies there's also a supply demand dynamic. The dollar is high right now as it's seen as a safe haven. Is this just like bitcoin in reverse? The difference is you can buy things with dollars such as goods, services, bonds, other investments or just pay tax in them if a US citizen. People want dollars as they think they'll perform relatively well but you can also DO things with your dollars. If you can't actually do anything with a bitcoin except maybe convert it back to an actual currency then what's the point? Why does it have value?

hallmark

What I think is strange is the lack of price movement for the last two months. Very uncharacteristic and during a news cycle that's offered lots of opportunities for large falls.  Tesla has more or less halved in the same period  Just my opinion but it looks to me like the BTC price is being propped up by a bunch of Crypto institutions that have nothing to lose by buying more as they're gonna go bankrupt anyway if it falls much more.

Crypto still looks like a Jenga Tower to me.

Frequentlyhere

hallmark said:

What I think is strange is the lack of price movement for the last two months.
Crypto still looks like a Jenga Tower to me.

That explainer thread I posted above explains why that is. In short, the big boys trade discreetly in a way that doesn't affect that price. As you say, the apparent stability doesn't really make sense otherwise.

Silvergate going under may disrupt that, but as there's still some incentive for them to collude, it's anyone guess as to whether it'll have a material impact on the spot price.

GazzaBloom

hallmark said:

What I think is strange is the lack of price movement for the last two months. Very uncharacteristic and during a news cycle that's offered lots of opportunities for large falls.  Tesla has more or less halved in the same period  Just my opinion but it looks to me like the BTC price is being propped up by a bunch of Crypto institutions that have nothing to lose by buying more as they're gonna go bankrupt anyway if it falls much more.

Crypto still looks like a Jenga Tower to me.

Tesla stock price can be valued against measures, for example the price to earnings, which is still 34 times earnings after the latest drops, so you can make a case for it being still notably overvalued.

How do you value Bitcoin? How do you know if it over or under valued?

Frequentlyhere

Gary1984 said:

The thing I just don't get is that absolutely any non-zero price is too high. There's nothing to measure it against to suggest when the price may be 'about right'. 

If you can't actually do anything with a bitcoin except maybe convert it back to an actual currency then what's the point? Why does it have value?

There's a few things:

1) As per the explainer above, the price we see is pretty much faked. There's no real liquidity there. If you had and tried to sell 1000 bitcoins on the open market it would crash badly.

2)  Anything can have value if a set of people feel it does. Gamestop shares still trade at 1000% higher than in 2020. That amount of people has shrunk drastically recently in this case, but there are still many die-hard bitcoin fans who truly believe it is the future of money and that now is just a buying opportunity. 

3) Linked to 1), vested interests. You have people like Michael Saylor who might be forced to liquidate all of his thousands of bitcoins if the price falls too far.

4) Crime. There is genuine usage of bitcoin for money laundering, drugs etc etc.

5) An arguable marginal use case for countries with currency problems e.g. Turkey, Ukraine, Venezuala etc if they're restricted from converting to other currencies for whatever reasons. Of course hardly ideal when your currency saviour itself falls 75% in a year.

There are of course a whole host of other BS reasons which don't really stand up - future of money/inflation proof/store of value/bank the unbanked/digital gold and on and on.

hallmark

Good link.  If that kind of poorly understood stuff is happening behind the scenes and possibly about to implode, it might explain why the US Regulators are suddenly making the point of warning on crypto contagion..

DannyCarey

There's Bitcoin and there's everything else..

Scottex99

Well well well, hello chaps. It's been a while.

Only scanned the last 6 pages and no idea when I last posted or what I'm doing back but seems the discussion is still alive.

I was very much part of the BTC to $100k crew as it rose past $20k in December 21? In hindsight, rampant inflation was obvious after all the money printing but I wasn't expecting macro to be so bad and equities to tank bad too. Plus War and whatever else.

LUNA collapse was a shock to me, UST peg wasn't difficult to break but I got sucked in by the UI/UX of the Terrastation which was very slick. 

Obviously that rekt Celsius, then 3AC, recently FTX and now Genesis having problems and Huobi in trouble too. Tough times for crypto firms. We've been regulated with full asset segregation from the beginning and traded about $400m in November and December, will be looking to Series A in 12-18 months, so there are still good players out there.

Recession due 2023? I wouldn't expect the markets to recover much next year but I do expect another crypto bullrun within a couple of years and BTC to get well past $100k in the long term.

Cheers

Scott

Hexane

Welcome back Scott, interesting to have your viewpoint on it. How's the weather down there?

masonic

Scottex99 said:

Well well well, hello chaps. It's been a while.

Only scanned the last 6 pages and no idea when I last posted or what I'm doing back but seems the discussion is still alive.

I was very much part of the BTC to $100k crew as it rose past $20k in December 21? In hindsight, rampant inflation was obvious after all the money printing but I wasn't expecting macro to be so bad and equities to tank bad too. Plus War and whatever else.

LUNA collapse was a shock to me, UST peg wasn't difficult to break but I got sucked in by the UI/UX of the Terrastation which was very slick. 

Obviously that rekt Celsius, then 3AC, recently FTX and now Genesis having problems and Huobi in trouble too. Tough times for crypto firms. We've been regulated with full asset segregation from the beginning and traded about $400m in November and December, will be looking to Series A in 12-18 months, so there are still good players out there.

Recession due 2023? I wouldn't expect the markets to recover much next year but I do expect another crypto bullrun within a couple of years and BTC to get well past $100k in the long term.

Cheers

Scott

@Scottex99 good to see you are alive and well. A lot of people had been trying to @ you around June last year without success, so you did have us wondering. Something about making good on a promise.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78313839/#Comment_78313839

Scottex99 said:

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

I'd never say never but at this stage with big corps getting in and JPM, Citi etc etc all having a look I'd say highly unlikely now.

Wait, what? JPM and Citi are holding crypto?

Lol, and it all starts making sense....

Do you think we just make stuff up? Everyone with half a brain has/is going to try to buy BTC

Nope, i just wanted a link to an article that spelt out that actually, JPM and Citi arent buying crypto, but are actually simply offering crypto as an investment vehicle to clients. A whole world of difference.
No different really than them offering clients soy bean futures. It doesnt mean they are bullish on the futures of soybeans.

Scottex99 said:

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin could go to any price $100K, $1m, anything which still would not prove it isn't just a bubble and might go to $0

Hahaha, well thats pretty fckn boring and we need a timescale to have this bet too.
By 01/01/2023 if BTC hasn't gone to $0, you pay my charity £1k, I do the same for you if it does

Make the date 2033, and the target price no higher than it is today. Id take that.

You honestly think that giant banks are offering BTC to clients and not taking a position in it themselves? The fastest growing asset of all time? The hardest form of decentralised money that that there is? Cool.

I dont mind coming back here to gloat at any time but i'd draw the line at 12 years from now. 

I'll make it easier then, BTC goes under $20k ever again, someone just @ me here and I'll give a grand to charity. I'll probably do similar at $100k too, just for fun