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BITCOIN
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Why lend money to El Salvador backed by Bitcoins when you can just buy Bitcoins?If the £1 billion worth of Bitcoins go to the moon then El Salvador pockets the difference between the return on Bitcoins minus the debt coupon. If they dump then El Salvador defaults on the debt and (best case scenario) hands back the Bitcoins. You get the downside and El Salvador gets the upside.(The scenario where Bitcoins dump but El Salvador doesn't default can be discounted given how reliant ElS is on Bitcoin staying up to pay their soldiers and civil servants.)If you were happy to take a punt on the prospect that El Salvador will, despite market expectations, repay its bonds in full, you might as well buy their conventional bonds and pocket the 24%pa yield, rather than buy "secured" bonds with a lower yield.Turns out it's more difficult to sell silly cargo cult tokens to international bond traders than to bros. Who knew.4
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I was never that interested in their bonds, but...Let's revisit and check on how those important bitcoin bonds are doing. Remember he is looking for $1 billion to replace conventional bonds and to fund the building of Bitcoin city.
Erm, yes - because they never went on sale. In other news, nobody has also bought time machines yet. What does this tell us?The total number of investors who have bought them is... drumroll... zero.
I think you need a course in bond math to understand how bond prices work. There is another, far more obvious way, which has caused their yields to blow out.As a result El Salvador is heading for a default with the yields on their conventional bonds now only beaten by Ukraine.
Also, the Bitcoin bond was never expressly slated to be used to repay their previous debts - so not sure why you are using 'as a result' here.
In a wet F1 race, when the track starts drying the first car to come in for slick tyres is a car towards the back of the pack. What does this tell us?El Salvador and Central African Republic, just the kind of countries Bitcoin needs for acceptance!
Neither of these countries are poster boys for success, but I have previously said in this thread that you should look for LatAm / African & SEA countries to adopt BTC first. Faith in fiat will begin to corrode with those that have not been a party to its success.
And lastly, this oldie but goodie;
Nobody uses it ...
Only criminals use it ...
Only geeks/libertarians use it ...
Only small companies use it ...
Only small countries use it
Ah, tell me you know nothing about investments without telling me you know nothing about investments....Why lend money to El Salvador backed by Bitcoins when you can just buy Bitcoins?
I'm not completely au fait with the bonds but I believe the original stipulation was that El Salvador would share half of any profit on the Bitcoin with the investors. Which would seem to render your argument here void and, of course, wouldn't be the first time you've made assumptions that aren't factually correct.Malthusian said:If the £1 billion worth of Bitcoins go to the moon then El Salvador pockets the difference between the return on Bitcoins minus the debt coupon. If they dump then El Salvador defaults on the debt and (best case scenario) hands back the Bitcoins. You get the downside and El Salvador gets the upside.
El Salvador has 1800 or so BTC acquired for about $80M I believe (above what they would trade for right now). Do you really think a country with a GDP of $25B is dependent on an investment or lump sum of $80M to pay its soldiers and civil servants?Malthusian said:(The scenario where Bitcoins dump but El Salvador doesn't default can be discounted given how reliant ElS is on Bitcoin staying up to pay their soldiers and civil servants.)
Or is this again a case of you failing to do basic math?
El Salvador aren't paying 24% interest on their debts. Its also not 24% per annum indefinitely. You do know these two things right? Or is this again you pretending to know how the bond market works without actually having a clue.Malthusian said:If you were happy to take a punt on the prospect that El Salvador will, despite market expectations, repay its bonds in full, you might as well buy their conventional bonds and pocket the 24%pa yield, rather than buy "secured" bonds with a lower yield.
Their 'secured' bonds (by which, I assume you mean the BTC bond) have an interest rate equal to 6% plus a quarter of whatever Bitcoin appreciates by in the next 5 years. If you're setting the line on that combination being equal to 24%, I would take the over every single time.
The bond market is very technical and math based; more so than regular markets. Its also intimately knowledgeable with the causes and consequences of QE and YCC. Some of the most bullish people I know on BTC work or worked in bond markets.Malthusian said:Turns out it's more difficult to sell silly cargo cult tokens to international bond traders than to bros. Who knew.
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Well time machines are imaginary, so not only are the benefits imaginary but, where they have been imagined, they have actually been detrimental to the wider society - ah, I get your point!darren232002 said:
Erm, yes - because they never went on sale. In other news, nobody has also bought time machines yet. What does this tell us?Reaper said:
The total number of investors who have bought them is... drumroll... zero.I don't care about your first world problems; I have enough of my own!2 -
Will you ever give up?darren232002 said:
I was never that interested in their bonds, but...Let's revisit and check on how those important bitcoin bonds are doing. Remember he is looking for $1 billion to replace conventional bonds and to fund the building of Bitcoin city.
Erm, yes - because they never went on sale. In other news, nobody has also bought time machines yet. What does this tell us?The total number of investors who have bought them is... drumroll... zero.
I think you need a course in bond math to understand how bond prices work. There is another, far more obvious way, which has caused their yields to blow out.As a result El Salvador is heading for a default with the yields on their conventional bonds now only beaten by Ukraine.
Also, the Bitcoin bond was never expressly slated to be used to repay their previous debts - so not sure why you are using 'as a result' here.
In a wet F1 race, when the track starts drying the first car to come in for slick tyres is a car towards the back of the pack. What does this tell us?El Salvador and Central African Republic, just the kind of countries Bitcoin needs for acceptance!
Neither of these countries are poster boys for success, but I have previously said in this thread that you should look for LatAm / African & SEA countries to adopt BTC first. Faith in fiat will begin to corrode with those that have not been a party to its success.
And lastly, this oldie but goodie;
Nobody uses it ...
Only criminals use it ...
Only geeks/libertarians use it ...
Only small companies use it ...
Only small countries use it
Ah, tell me you know nothing about investments without telling me you know nothing about investments....Why lend money to El Salvador backed by Bitcoins when you can just buy Bitcoins?
I'm not completely au fait with the bonds but I believe the original stipulation was that El Salvador would share half of any profit on the Bitcoin with the investors. Which would seem to render your argument here void and, of course, wouldn't be the first time you've made assumptions that aren't factually correct.Malthusian said:If the £1 billion worth of Bitcoins go to the moon then El Salvador pockets the difference between the return on Bitcoins minus the debt coupon. If they dump then El Salvador defaults on the debt and (best case scenario) hands back the Bitcoins. You get the downside and El Salvador gets the upside.
El Salvador has 1800 or so BTC acquired for about $80M I believe (above what they would trade for right now). Do you really think a country with a GDP of $25B is dependent on an investment or lump sum of $80M to pay its soldiers and civil servants?Malthusian said:(The scenario where Bitcoins dump but El Salvador doesn't default can be discounted given how reliant ElS is on Bitcoin staying up to pay their soldiers and civil servants.)
Or is this again a case of you failing to do basic math?
El Salvador aren't paying 24% interest on their debts. Its also not 24% per annum indefinitely. You do know these two things right? Or is this again you pretending to know how the bond market works without actually having a clue.Malthusian said:If you were happy to take a punt on the prospect that El Salvador will, despite market expectations, repay its bonds in full, you might as well buy their conventional bonds and pocket the 24%pa yield, rather than buy "secured" bonds with a lower yield.
Their 'secured' bonds (by which, I assume you mean the BTC bond) have an interest rate equal to 6% plus a quarter of whatever Bitcoin appreciates by in the next 5 years. If you're setting the line on that combination being equal to 24%, I would take the over every single time.
The bond market is very technical and math based; more so than regular markets. Its also intimately knowledgeable with the causes and consequences of QE and YCC. Some of the most bullish people I know on BTC work or worked in bond markets.Malthusian said:Turns out it's more difficult to sell silly cargo cult tokens to international bond traders than to bros. Who knew.0 -
Only when the fat lady sings...........tebbins said:
Will you ever give up?darren232002 said:
I was never that interested in their bonds, but...Let's revisit and check on how those important bitcoin bonds are doing. Remember he is looking for $1 billion to replace conventional bonds and to fund the building of Bitcoin city.
Erm, yes - because they never went on sale. In other news, nobody has also bought time machines yet. What does this tell us?The total number of investors who have bought them is... drumroll... zero.
I think you need a course in bond math to understand how bond prices work. There is another, far more obvious way, which has caused their yields to blow out.As a result El Salvador is heading for a default with the yields on their conventional bonds now only beaten by Ukraine.
Also, the Bitcoin bond was never expressly slated to be used to repay their previous debts - so not sure why you are using 'as a result' here.
In a wet F1 race, when the track starts drying the first car to come in for slick tyres is a car towards the back of the pack. What does this tell us?El Salvador and Central African Republic, just the kind of countries Bitcoin needs for acceptance!
Neither of these countries are poster boys for success, but I have previously said in this thread that you should look for LatAm / African & SEA countries to adopt BTC first. Faith in fiat will begin to corrode with those that have not been a party to its success.
And lastly, this oldie but goodie;
Nobody uses it ...
Only criminals use it ...
Only geeks/libertarians use it ...
Only small companies use it ...
Only small countries use it
Ah, tell me you know nothing about investments without telling me you know nothing about investments....Why lend money to El Salvador backed by Bitcoins when you can just buy Bitcoins?
I'm not completely au fait with the bonds but I believe the original stipulation was that El Salvador would share half of any profit on the Bitcoin with the investors. Which would seem to render your argument here void and, of course, wouldn't be the first time you've made assumptions that aren't factually correct.Malthusian said:If the £1 billion worth of Bitcoins go to the moon then El Salvador pockets the difference between the return on Bitcoins minus the debt coupon. If they dump then El Salvador defaults on the debt and (best case scenario) hands back the Bitcoins. You get the downside and El Salvador gets the upside.
El Salvador has 1800 or so BTC acquired for about $80M I believe (above what they would trade for right now). Do you really think a country with a GDP of $25B is dependent on an investment or lump sum of $80M to pay its soldiers and civil servants?Malthusian said:(The scenario where Bitcoins dump but El Salvador doesn't default can be discounted given how reliant ElS is on Bitcoin staying up to pay their soldiers and civil servants.)
Or is this again a case of you failing to do basic math?
El Salvador aren't paying 24% interest on their debts. Its also not 24% per annum indefinitely. You do know these two things right? Or is this again you pretending to know how the bond market works without actually having a clue.Malthusian said:If you were happy to take a punt on the prospect that El Salvador will, despite market expectations, repay its bonds in full, you might as well buy their conventional bonds and pocket the 24%pa yield, rather than buy "secured" bonds with a lower yield.
Their 'secured' bonds (by which, I assume you mean the BTC bond) have an interest rate equal to 6% plus a quarter of whatever Bitcoin appreciates by in the next 5 years. If you're setting the line on that combination being equal to 24%, I would take the over every single time.
The bond market is very technical and math based; more so than regular markets. Its also intimately knowledgeable with the causes and consequences of QE and YCC. Some of the most bullish people I know on BTC work or worked in bond markets.Malthusian said:Turns out it's more difficult to sell silly cargo cult tokens to international bond traders than to bros. Who knew.1 -
darren232002 said:I'm not completely au fait with the bonds but I believe the original stipulation was that El Salvador would share half of any profit on the Bitcoin with the investors. Which would seem to render your argument here void and, of course, wouldn't be the first time you've made assumptions that aren't factually correct.Citation needed. I looked at a few reports, and there is no indication that El Salvador will pay investors a share of any profit on the Bitcoin it holds. What may have confused you is that El Salvador has committed to using half the money raised to buy Bitcoin and the other half to invest in its volcano brodome. It plans to start selling that Bitcoin after five years to pay the previously agreed coupon (6.5%). No part of that involves sharing the profits with bondholders.Even if you're correct and El Salvador is paying 6.5% plus half the gains on the Bitcoin held (which, as half the money is going to Bitcoin, would mean 25% of the rise in Bitcoin * amount invested * % discount or premium over the issue price), it still doesn't answer the question of why you would lend money to El Salvador and let them have half the upside instead of buying Bitcoins yourself and taking all the upside.6.5%pa for lending money to a country whose bonds trade at yields of 24%+ certainly isn't a good reason.El Salvador has 1800 or so BTC acquired for about $80M I believe (above what they would trade for right now). Do you really think a country with a GDP of $25B is dependent on an investment or lump sum of $80M to pay its soldiers and civil servants?No. They're dependent on the IMF not cutting up their credit card. Unless Bitcoin goes to the mewn or they can persuade enough bros to pay $100,000 for an El Salvadorean passport. This is the fundamental issue with El Brosidente's Operation You Only Live Twice.2
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Bitcoin down over 10% ($) today. Are the cracks finally appearing and herd is beginning to stampede for the exits......0
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Haha
S&P500 Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): 3400
S&P500 Now: 4000
+17%
FTSE 250 Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): 21800
FTSE 250 Now: 19300
-12%
Bitcoin Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): £6800
Bitcoin Now: £25000
+267%
Its like you guys don't have access to a calculator.
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Well done for plucking some suitable dates out of the air and not responding to the specific -10% in the last message which doesn’t even need a calculatordarren232002 said:Haha
S&P500 Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): 3400
S&P500 Now: 4000
+17%
FTSE 250 Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): 21800
FTSE 250 Now: 19300
-12%
Bitcoin Pre-Pandemic (March 2020): £6800
Bitcoin Now: £25000
+267%
Its like you guys don't have access to a calculator.0 -
Interval entertainment!The pretend gold rush overwhelmed the Ethereum bLoCkChAiN, which meant that another bro spent $3,300 in transaction fees to buy this 8-bit clip art picture of a goat in a bowl of soup, priced at $25.The future of money!Yes, I know, "the thread title says Bitcoin, what's this got to do with Bitcoin". Simple. Every $ that goes into trying and failing to buy 8-bit clip art pictures is a $ that can't go into Bitcoin to be cashed out by the disenfranchised. The proliferation and fragmetation of crypto money games helps to explain why Bitcoin is in a 53% dump, despite the turmoil on real asset markets and the headlines about nuclear war and the cost of living crisis, which in theory makes this the ideal time for a pump.2
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