Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Another_Saver said:

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

Well, luck is defenitely one factor. But Research and the edge ahead of the game is more dominant I believe. For instance, If you get information such as government contract, IPO date of the stock that have predicted by many (almost all) analysts to explode, you read a company balance sheet, get profit report earlier than other people than you have the edge.

Nowadays many of this information is availbale for free. You could even read analysts prediction, eventhough you do not just rely on their own prediction without doing your own due diligence. Due diligence will avoid people to make mistake.

Also importanly you will need a some level of calculated risk, no risk no reward. That is what my money is doing afew years ago in saving account. I wish I had a courage to take a calculated risk much earlier.

Shocking_Blue

csgohan4 said:

adindas said:

csgohan4 said:

I am holding onto my CIne world shares, poured more money into them than IAG. Up on 80% on IAG and 30+% on CINE, happy with things have turned out, but as with individual stocks, tomorrow, the stock could halve, it's volatile and I accept that. 

CINEworld is it not the stock we are taking here before in this thread??

I just chek it my CINEworld has gone up to 60% . I have a small position in Easyjet, but unfortunately I have not managed to enter IAG. I have set up a limit order which wil be triggered once that price level is reached.

yeah, CINE ticker. 
I made mistakes on the way as I only entered investing a few months after covid. Could have made more I guess, those 27p CINE would have been useful, but hey ho,  they have potential to go up in the next 5 years. 

I hate the short sellers who make the price volatile, Glad I didn't pick up Rolls royce, that was a short sellers pipe dream

If it wasn't for the Covid, I probably would have dumped them into Tesla, SMT, Tencent

Sold CINE 10% up. Now wondering if to get back in. Also considering RR. Just small amounts, but looking at the pre Covid levels it surely makes sense?

Shocking_Blue

...Also, meant to mention Airbus. Not seen much mention of this

Another_Saver

csgohan4 said:

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

But research does reduce the risk, but not down to 0%, look at Nikola as a prime example, ANother Joe did his due diligence and didn't invest in itand look at where the company is heading. You want to at least try not to back the wrong horse. 

Returns are a different matter, research does help  with returns, but with speculation, your trying not to put money into a non starter or one that will be bankrupt very shortly

It would be folly to put money into debenhams a year ago looking at their balance sheets and the current consumer market as an example. Just because they are well known, doesn't mean they are good for investing. Another example would be BT 

I'm sceptical that an example of looking at something AJ probably understands well enough given some of his detailed posts on Tesla, bearing in mind Nikola is pretty obviously dodgy, is evidence that in general research has an impact on a portfolio. At the level of individual amateur retail investors, because of the smaller sums involved and the difference between "no knowledge" and "functional understanding", research obviously has more utility than for professionals trying to beat the market. Research cannot make the things you buy return more, just make you buy the things that return more, so on aggregate it's a zero sum game, but a necessary cost to have pride discovery for an efficient capital market

What I struggle to buy into is this myth -  I saw it mentioned a lot during the Telegraph Fantasy Fund that the winners won because of diligent research. A lot just picked miners and got lucky. A lot of vested interests in maintaining the myth to keep the investing industry in a job.
That is not a comment on the value finance professionals can bring in general.

That said, you could say my 1/3 FTSE 100 1/3 FTSE 250 1/3 global index funds portfolio is because of own research, if you consider that equivalent to individual stock research 🤷‍♂️

csgohan4

Another_Saver said:

csgohan4 said:

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

But research does reduce the risk, but not down to 0%, look at Nikola as a prime example, ANother Joe did his due diligence and didn't invest in itand look at where the company is heading. You want to at least try not to back the wrong horse. 

Returns are a different matter, research does help  with returns, but with speculation, your trying not to put money into a non starter or one that will be bankrupt very shortly

It would be folly to put money into debenhams a year ago looking at their balance sheets and the current consumer market as an example. Just because they are well known, doesn't mean they are good for investing. Another example would be BT 

I'm sceptical that an example of looking at something AJ probably understands well enough given some of his detailed posts on Tesla, bearing in mind Nikola is pretty obviously dodgy, is evidence that in general research has an impact on a portfolio. At the level of individual amateur retail investors, because of the smaller sums involved and the difference between "no knowledge" and "functional understanding", research obviously has more utility than for professionals trying to beat the market. Research cannot make the things you buy return more, just make you buy the things that return more, so on aggregate it's a zero sum game, but a necessary cost to have pride discovery for an efficient capital market

What I struggle to buy into is this myth -  I saw it mentioned a lot during the Telegraph Fantasy Fund that the winners won because of diligent research. A lot just picked miners and got lucky. A lot of vested interests in maintaining the myth to keep the investing industry in a job.
That is not a comment on the value finance professionals can bring in general.

That said, you could say my 1/3 FTSE 100 1/3 FTSE 250 1/3 global index funds portfolio is because of own research, if you consider that equivalent to individual stock research 🤷‍♂️

Research is subjective, it could have been  something you read in the Daily Fail, or from  a FT article. 

Take our resident ARWR fan, Brockstocker, they clearly did their research and their portfolio for this stock is up significantly, with an avg share of 37p. Could buying in early be research or luck?

Would you have dared to put your money in Nio when it was only a few dollars worth? and poured a significant amount to make it worth while? if you did, it would be worth X10 by now. 

Luck is randomly picking a ticker and putting your money in, research is when you read in a bit more detail what the company does, financials, viability and sustainability. 

however at the moment Value investor was a no brainer, alot of stock a few months ago you know will shoot up with the vaccine. IAG JDW, EZJ, BP,RDSB e.t.c. 

however as mentioned individual stocks are and will always be volatile, looking as I speak the CINE stocks are now sky rocketing, I don't know why, there's no new news for CINE, Maybe short sellers wanting in, or more people want to be part of the value investors. Who knows. But I am glad I am in the green and made the right choice. 

The market is fickle and does funny things. CINE was 43p only last month. Kicked myself for not buying it then, but bought it at 48p the day before and down 10% already at the time, we can try to time the market, but we may not always be right. 

However if I Just picked a well known company and hoped for the best, like BT, might as well flush my money down the drain

CINE is not without risks as mentioned, huge debts and overheads and not making any money at present. Even with Wonder Woman 1986 coming, they may not open for that

Shocking_Blue

csgohan4 said:

Another_Saver said:

csgohan4 said:

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? Aside from the bare minimum to avoid dumb things I think it's more down to luck or sticking to what you know. You're suggesting that returns are correlated with skill, a statement with as much evidence behind it as the predictive power of horoscopes.

But research does reduce the risk, but not down to 0%, look at Nikola as a prime example, ANother Joe did his due diligence and didn't invest in itand look at where the company is heading. You want to at least try not to back the wrong horse. 

Returns are a different matter, research does help  with returns, but with speculation, your trying not to put money into a non starter or one that will be bankrupt very shortly

It would be folly to put money into debenhams a year ago looking at their balance sheets and the current consumer market as an example. Just because they are well known, doesn't mean they are good for investing. Another example would be BT 

I'm sceptical that an example of looking at something AJ probably understands well enough given some of his detailed posts on Tesla, bearing in mind Nikola is pretty obviously dodgy, is evidence that in general research has an impact on a portfolio. At the level of individual amateur retail investors, because of the smaller sums involved and the difference between "no knowledge" and "functional understanding", research obviously has more utility than for professionals trying to beat the market. Research cannot make the things you buy return more, just make you buy the things that return more, so on aggregate it's a zero sum game, but a necessary cost to have pride discovery for an efficient capital market

What I struggle to buy into is this myth -  I saw it mentioned a lot during the Telegraph Fantasy Fund that the winners won because of diligent research. A lot just picked miners and got lucky. A lot of vested interests in maintaining the myth to keep the investing industry in a job.
That is not a comment on the value finance professionals can bring in general.

That said, you could say my 1/3 FTSE 100 1/3 FTSE 250 1/3 global index funds portfolio is because of own research, if you consider that equivalent to individual stock research 

however as mentioned individual stocks are and will always be volatile, looking as I speak the CINE stocks are now sky rocketing, I don't know why, there's no new news for CINE, Maybe short sellers wanting in, or more people want to be part of the value investors. Who knows. But I am glad I am in the green and made the right choice. 

The market is fickle and does funny things. CINE was 43p only last month. Kicked myself for not buying it then, but bought it at 48p the day before and down 10% already at the time, we can try to time the market, but we may not always be right.

CINE is not without risks as mentioned, huge debts and overheads and not making any money at present. Even with Wonder Woman 1986 coming, they may not open for that

This was one of the reasons I sold CINE when up. Can't understand why they're skyrocketing.

Thrugelmir

Another_Saver said:

Old_Lifer said:

Investing in individual shares is risky  but research lessens the risk.   The more research you do , the less the risk becomes but since the unexpected can always happen you can by no means eliminate the risk.    Research  beforehand  has often stopped me making costly mistakes.   Research should be ongoing.  It may indicate that a share is worth buying but may also indicate a time to sell a share.  

Doing more research lessens the risk? 

One can then make a more reasoned judgement. If the intention is to hold the share for the longer term rather than speculate on short term price movements. All shares have bull and bear points. Including sometimes the entry price point. Knowing what not to buy can be a usefull tool. 

Moe_The_Bartender

You can argue this stuff all day long. Personally, nothing would persuade me to put a penny in the likes of Cineworld. You might as well have a punt on the 3.30 at Doncaster.

My only speculative punt this year has been Ceres Power (CWR) which is currently up 30% since I bought it a few weeks ago. I only bought it because a friend who owns ITM was very persuasive about the merits of fuel cell technology and has made a bundle on ITM - about 700% over a couple of years. Worst case is that I lose a grand.

My most profitable individual stock purchase this year has been Vestas Wind (VWS) where I am up about 80%. For me, there was nothing speculative about it - it was a complete no brainer. One of the world’s biggest manufacturers of wind turbines sitting right next to the North Sea where massive wind farms are being installed at a rate of knots. I might not be able to fully understand a set of accounts but I think I’m not bad at spotting mega trends - hence my investments in Cloud Computing, Esports and Gaming ETFs and Hipgnosis Songs when COVID lockdowns started.

I’m not trying to give myself toffee, but just making the point that whilst investing will never be without risk, it is possible to reduce that risk by using a bit of common sense. Some of the suggestions on this thread for speculative punts made my jaw drop and were nothing more than bets, most likely losing ones.

adindas

Shocking_Blue said:

This was one of the reasons I sold CINE when up. Can't understand why they're skyrocketing.

I believe becuase of vaccine approval by the UK government. Vaccination will start soon and they will start making money. Many of Hollywood blockbusters movie launching have been postponed.

With the signal like this it is very high chance the price will keep going up. But Certainly there is always small chance go down or even go bancrupt if we are unlucky.

There will be some noise in the market due to extreme traders such as day Trader, Short sellers, etc. But you keep ignoring this noise, there is a good chance there will be bouncing back to pre COVID-19, the time where you might consider selling it.

csgohan4

adindas said:

Shocking_Blue said:

This was one of the reasons I sold CINE when up. Can't understand why they're skyrocketing.

I believe becuase of vaccine approval by the UK government. Vaccination will start soon and they will start making money. Many of Hollywood blockbusters movie launching have been postponed.

With the signal like this it is very high chance the price will keep going up. But Certainly there is always small chance go down or even go bancrupt if we are unlucky.

There will be some noise in the market due to extreme traders such as day Trader, Short sellers, etc. But you keep ignoring this noise, there is a good chance there will be bouncing back to pre COVID-19, the time where you might consider selling it.

I do agree with Moe, however there's a difference to value investing which CINE, IAG are to investing to diversify and expanding your portfolio. Clearly renewables are the future and there's no dispute on this 

CINE is purely speculative and a higher risk for sure than Moe's punts. But nevertheless if you got in early the windfall is still substantial if you sell in the short to medium term. 

If there wasn't covid I probably would have had renewable sector in my portfolio, but with an 80+% gain on IAG, it was too good to miss out and alot of others on here have made a quick coin as well on the recovery value investing, I think BH has the best so far with rock-bottom William hill prices and potentially got 7x value

Short of investing in an unknown SPAC which is more risky, getting that return in 6 months is Highly unusual and the chances of William hill collapsing is unlikely