Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

DireEmblem said:

Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage.

By no means any guarantee, and highly risky in my opinion.

If you're after a speculative punt go ahead.  My latest acquisition is Ceres.  They design electric conversion technology and sell the production rights to manufacturers.  Bosch recently won an award with their technology building a hydrogen power plant in Germany, and there are talks about it being the next big thing in Singapore and rumours in the UK as well.

"By no means any guarantee"      Certainly.

, and highly risky in my opinion"      Defenitely

"If you're after a speculative punt go ahead.  My latest acquisition is Ceres.  They design electric conversion technology and sell the production rights to manufacturers."

Out of curiosity. You criticize people for making a risky speculative investment but at the same time you recommend “Ceres Acquisition Corp. (CERE)” This is your first speculative stock on this thread. Not many people ever heard about it. No single wall street analyst ever mention it. This is just one example

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CA/NEOE/CEREUSD/research-ratings

Any plausible explanation, for this?

Any investment will have a speculative element to some degrees as you might lose all your money. Even you invest in a well diversified index fund, mutual fund you are still not immune to market crash.

The only investment I will consider unspeculative is the product where you will never lose your initial outlay and guaranteed by the government such as saving, government bond.

"Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage."

Well, If you want to turn a company to become a monster of wall street you will need an IPO is it not? ALL of the current megacap on the wall streets will never become a monster without raising money in this way.

Vast majority (if not all) of technology companies (EV is not an exception) are a highly speculative investment. It is speculative because  you might lose all of your money, none of  technology companies are making profit in their infancy and you are relying on the upcoming revenue and growth prediction. But even the well establish long stading non technological companies on the S&P 500 many of them are currently making a loss due to pandemic.

I am not here to defend VGAC neither do I have intention to debate a highly speculative investment vs value investment. Each to their own, no right or wrong either way. Some people want to keep relying on saving, it is also fine. It is their own  money anyway, as long as you understand the reward you get that you are actually ending losing money (inflation).

When taking a calculated risk in speculative investment, what is important here is the rewards will need to be significantly higher than the risk. Also, it is important that you do your own due diligence to make your own decision.

I quoted what Warren Buffett said "Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing”

Thank for the suggestion about “Ceres Acquisition Corp. (CERE)”.

I will investigate further. But my initial hesitation is the use of hydrogen, if I understand it correctly.

About "hydrogen power station" I am not here to debate the hydrogen to be used as a fuel but I did research in the past regarding the profitability and feasibility of Hydrogen to be used as a fuel with regard to the competing option.

Many of analysts have made  a verdict that the use of hydrogen is less profitable and and feasible to supplement an electric vehicle. Let alone the investment needed to built the hydrogen network as a fuel station. In the meanwhile you could literaly convert any single home to become an EV charging station with very limited cost.

You will probably need to research what the ARK invest research team and other analysts are saying about the use of hydrogen as a fuel to supplement to make a hybrid EV. Here is what US department of Energy is saying.

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html

"The primary challenge for hydrogen production is reducing the cost of production technologies to make the resulting hydrogen cost competitive with conventional transportation fuels"

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

what's going on with NIO and Xpeng, they have had large drops

Sometimes valuations move ahead of commercial reality. 

csgohan4

Thrugelmir said:

csgohan4 said:

what's going on with NIO and Xpeng, they have had large drops

Sometimes valuations move ahead of commercial reality. 

To be fair the same could be said of why they had such gains initially, didn't make sense. Will keep on my watch list

Ciprico

adindas said:

DireEmblem said:

Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage.

By no means any guarantee, and highly risky in my opinion.

If you're after a speculative punt go ahead.  My latest acquisition is Ceres.  They design electric conversion technology and sell the production rights to manufacturers.  Bosch recently won an award with their technology building a hydrogen power plant in Germany, and there are talks about it being the next big thing in Singapore and rumours in the UK as well.

"By no means any guarantee"      Certainly.

, and highly risky in my opinion"      Defenitely

But is there any investment not a speculative ?. Any investment will have a speculative element to some degrees as you might lose all your money. Even you invest in a well diversified index fund, mutual fund you are still not immune to market crash.

The only investment I will consider unspeculative is the product where you will never lose your initial outlay and guaranteed by the government such as saving, government bond.

"Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage."

If you want to turn a company to become a monster of wall street you will need an IPO is it not? ALL of the current megacap on the wall streets will never become a monster without raising money in this way.

Vast majority (if not all) of technology companies (EV is not an exception) are a highly speculative investment. It is speculative because  you might lose all of your money, none of  technology companies are making profit in their infancy and you are relying on the upcoming revenue and growth prediction. But even the well establish long stading companies on the S&P 500 many of them are currently making a loss due to pandemic.

I am not here to defend VGAC neither do I have intention to debate a highly speculative investment vs value investment. Each to their own, no right or wrong either way. Some people want to keep relying on saving, it is also fine. It is their own  money anyway, as long as you understand the reward you get that you are actually ending losing money (inflation).

When taking a calculated risk in speculative investment, what is important here is the rewards will need to be significantly higher than the risk. Also, it is important that you do your own due diligence to make your own decision.

I quoted what Warren Buffett said "Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing”

Thank for the suggestion about Ceres. I will investigate that. But my initial hesitation is the use of hydrogen, if I understand correctly.

About "hydrogen power plant" I am not here to debate the hydrogen to be used as a fuel but I did research in the past regarding the profitability and feasibility of Hydrogen to be used as a fuel with regard to the competing option.

Many of analysts have made  a verdict that the use of hydrogen is less profitable and and feasible to supplement an electric vehicle. Let alone the investment needed to built the hydrogen network as a fuel station.

You will probably need to research what the ARK invest research team and other analysts are saying about the use of hydrogen as a fuel to supplement to make a hybrid EV. Here is what US department of Energy is saying.

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html

"The primary challenge for hydrogen production is reducing the cost of production technologies to make the resulting hydrogen cost competitive with conventional transportation fuels"

Hydrogen can also be seen as energy storage - for example ITM Power (who are often talked about in the same conversation as Ceres) use excess solar power to make Hydrogen via electolysis. So in that context hydrogen is used to store energy.
Hydrogen also may have a purpose in industry, ie fueling steelworks, so don't be too sidetracked by Hydrogen and issues with EV's.
Ceres' product is not exclusive to H2, it can use natural gas. Fuel cells in their simplest form can be considered as devices that efficiently convert gas to electricity in a chemical process (as opposed to mechanical/generator). Obviously H2 is a much sexier gas than natural gas these days....

adindas

123mat123 said:

Hydrogen can also be seen as energy storage - for example ITM Power (who are often talked about in the same conversation as Ceres) use excess solar power to make Hydrogen via electolysis. So in that context hydrogen is used to store energy.
Hydrogen also may have a purpose in industry, ie fueling steelworks, so don't be too sidetracked by Hydrogen and issues with EV's.
Ceres' product is not exclusive to H2, it can use natural gas. Fuel cells in their simplest form can be considered as devices that efficiently convert gas to electricity in a chemical process (as opposed to mechanical/generator). Obviously H2 is a much sexier gas than natural gas these days....

Indeed Hydrogen can also be seen as energy storage. But the same things goes to with EV, where  you store it in the Battery. Nowadays EV companies try to develop a technology or EV design on how to swap the battery easily.

I have digged in the past regarding the profitability and feasibility of Hydrogen to be used as a fuel with regard to the competing option. Many of analysts have made  a verdict that the use of hydrogen is currently less profitable and less feasible to supplement an electric vehicle. Let alone the investment needed to built the hydrogen network as a fuel stations. In the meanwhile you could literaly convert any single home to become an EV charging station with very limited cost. Same with conventional fuel.  Not many will be crazy to store H2 fuel in their home in large quantity or to do electolysis processing in their home.

This chemical reaction has been known even by ordinary people since a few centuries. Producing hyddrogen from water

2 H2O → 2 H2 + O2.

Those scientists who could do that in commercial scale  should have become the richest man on earth by now. In the very long run might be when the cost of doing this become much cheaper. But the debate like this will never end. But I am not here to debate whether H2 could be done commercially. I am doing a speculative investment where I believe my money could work harder based on my own due diligence.

You will probably need to research what the ARK invest research team and other analysts are saying about the use of hydrogen as a fuel to supplement to make a hybrid EV. Here is what US department of Energy is saying.

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html

The primary challenge for hydrogen production is reducing the cost of production technologies to make the resulting hydrogen cost competitive with conventional transportation fuels"

Moe_The_Bartender

adindas said:

DireEmblem said:

Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage.

By no means any guarantee, and highly risky in my opinion.

If you're after a speculative punt go ahead.  My latest acquisition is Ceres.  They design electric conversion technology and sell the production rights to manufacturers.  Bosch recently won an award with their technology building a hydrogen power plant in Germany, and there are talks about it being the next big thing in Singapore and rumours in the UK as well.

"By no means any guarantee"      Certainly.

, and highly risky in my opinion"      Defenitely

"If you're after a speculative punt go ahead.  My latest acquisition is Ceres.  They design electric conversion technology and sell the production rights to manufacturers."

Out of curiosity. You criticize people for making a risky speculative investment but at the same time you recommend “Ceres Acquisition Corp. (CERE)” This is your first speculative stock on this thread. Not many people ever heard about it. No single wall street analyst ever mention it. This is just one example

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CA/NEOE/CEREUSD/research-ratings

Any plausible explanation, for this?

Any investment will have a speculative element to some degrees as you might lose all your money. Even you invest in a well diversified index fund, mutual fund you are still not immune to market crash.

The only investment I will consider unspeculative is the product where you will never lose your initial outlay and guaranteed by the government such as saving, government bond.

"Just a thought, but if Richard Branson is able to make so much money, why does he need to raise funds?  Instead he is asking for others to contribute to a business proposition his group will manage."

Well, If you want to turn a company to become a monster of wall street you will need an IPO is it not? ALL of the current megacap on the wall streets will never become a monster without raising money in this way.

Vast majority (if not all) of technology companies (EV is not an exception) are a highly speculative investment. It is speculative because  you might lose all of your money, none of  technology companies are making profit in their infancy and you are relying on the upcoming revenue and growth prediction. But even the well establish long stading companies on the S&P 500 many of them are currently making a loss due to pandemic.

I am not here to defend VGAC neither do I have intention to debate a highly speculative investment vs value investment. Each to their own, no right or wrong either way. Some people want to keep relying on saving, it is also fine. It is their own  money anyway, as long as you understand the reward you get that you are actually ending losing money (inflation).

When taking a calculated risk in speculative investment, what is important here is the rewards will need to be significantly higher than the risk. Also, it is important that you do your own due diligence to make your own decision.

I quoted what Warren Buffett said "Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing”

Thank for the suggestion about “Ceres Acquisition Corp. (CERE)”.

I will investigate further. But my initial hesitation is the use of hydrogen, if I understand it correctly.

About "hydrogen power station" I am not here to debate the hydrogen to be used as a fuel but I did research in the past regarding the profitability and feasibility of Hydrogen to be used as a fuel with regard to the competing option.

Many of analysts have made  a verdict that the use of hydrogen is less profitable and and feasible to supplement an electric vehicle. Let alone the investment needed to built the hydrogen network as a fuel station. In the meanwhile you could literaly convert any single home to become an EV charging station with very limited cost.

You will probably need to research what the ARK invest research team and other analysts are saying about the use of hydrogen as a fuel to supplement to make a hybrid EV. Here is what US department of Energy is saying.

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html

"The primary challenge for hydrogen production is reducing the cost of production technologies to make the resulting hydrogen cost competitive with conventional transportation fuels"

I suspect that DireEmblem was referring to Ceres Power Holdings (CWR).

Apodemus

Adindas, I'm not sure when you last did due diligence on the Hydrogen sector, but things are moving very fast and some of your comments seem not to take account of recent developments.  There is currently a clamour to get on board and there is a gold-rush feel to some of the stock listings in the sector.  Almost certainly some of these companies will fall by the wayside and some of the nascent technologies will get overtaken by other technology.  The smaller players definitely meet the "speculative punt" definition, but there are some big players in the field, too, where the Hydrogen component is currently just a small part of their overall business.  

Old_Lifer

Much of the thinking with hydrogen at present is directed towards fleets of commercial vehicles and trains, rather than your private motorist.

Sometimes hydrogen is produced as a 'waste product' of a process  but it is a product which is increasingly having value.

Sadly, other countries are in many respects  way ahead of us when it comes to hydrogen.

Apodemus

Old_Lifer said:

Much of the thinking with hydrogen at present is directed towards fleets of commercial vehicles and trains, rather than your private motorist.

Perhaps, but Hydrogen use as any form of transport fuel is likely to be dwarfed by the volumes that might be used if (or more likely when) it takes over from natural gas as the piped gas supply. There is also potentially a big market for fixed, hydrogen-powered electricity generators (for back-up power or off-grid use) and we might see these becoming common long before we see hydrogen trucks. However Wrightbus in Northern Ireland are about to have a hydrogen-powered bus in service in Aberdeen where Royal Mail have also introduced their first hydrogen-powered delivery vehicle.

adindas

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I suspect that DireEmblem was referring to Ceres Power Holdings (CWR).

Well, I just have a look on many analysist prices targets Ceres Power Holdings (CWR) “from various sources” as a starting point. Many of them (In fact all them what I have manage to observe) have the price target much lower than the current price. Not a good start f you want to invest  time in investigating them. I might want to spend more time investigating it when the price is already below the current analysts’ price target.

Many people believe more in analyst's opinion rather then random people on the forum. But I do not blindly following or believing in them as I also do my own due diligence.