Suggestions for a speculative punt?

bowlhead99

adindas said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I suspect that DireEmblem was referring to Ceres Power Holdings (CWR).

Well, I just have a look on many analysist prices targets Ceres Power Holdings (CWR) “from various sources”. Many of them (In fact all them what I have manage to observe) have the price target much lower than the current price. I might want to spend time investigating it when the price is already below the analysts’ current target price.

I believe more on Analyst opinion rather then random people on the forum. But I do not blindly following or believing in them as I also do my own due diligence.

They don't have heavy analyst coverage and some price targets may be somewhat stale, given about a year ago they were in in the 250p range and now more like 850p.  Perhaps interest in them as a punt among casual investors was buoyed by them being featured in a few paragraphs by the Times a couple of days ago (Tempus column). They noted that recent developments and partnerships look favourable. As yet, they make some gross profits but overall net losses and the market cap of over a billion is obviously a lot more than the £20m revenue for the year to June.  As there's no EPS or dividend, the valuation is driven by optimism about ability to win share in a market that will be worth (according to estimates by some consultancies) several tens of billions per year within the next 5-10 years.  The piece ended "Based on its success rate and the sheer prospects for this market, this is a high risk proposition but one that also seems feasible. Speculative, but interesting".

Of course as you always say, do your own research rather than take tips from random people on the forum but presumably this thread is about starting points for research rather than just whatever 'analysts' such as Jim Cramer (or actual analysts) are talking about this week.

One UK very smallcap I've been following with interest is Ince group - legal services. I bought in at 29p at the start of July and they had drifted down to about 20p by early last month, almost revisiting their March covid lows. The interims for the 6 months to September were issued yesterday and were good, with revenues up overall, increasing in all their overseas practices with the UK revenue in recent months not far behind last year despite the Covid headaches. On the back of the results they closed at 40p yesterday (which was a doubling from their recent low a month ago); after the analyst / investor presentation yesterday evening, they've fallen back 10% or so today but still nicely in positive territory if you bought in at the beginning of this thread.

They did a placing in Feb at 45p before the impact of Covid was forseen, but I think the interims show they could go on to higher levels next year and they're optimistic about being able to announce a dividend with full year results. Of course, anything with a £30m market cap qualifies as a 'speculative punt'!

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

Thrugelmir said:

csgohan4 said:

what's going on with NIO and Xpeng, they have had large drops

Sometimes valuations move ahead of commercial reality. 

To be fair the same could be said of why they had such gains initially, didn't make sense. Will keep on my watch list

Potential. Manufacturing and establishing a product brand takes time. NIO became more valuable than General Motors, but sells a fraction of the number of cars. Delivered a record 5,291 vehicles in November. In comparison VW sold over 10,000 ID3's in Europe. 

adindas

csgohan4 said:

what's going on with NIO and Xpeng, they have had large drops

"Congress has cleared bill to ban trading in Chinese firms that does not comply withthe US requirement"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/congress-clears-bill-to-ban-trading-in-chinese-firms-that-thwart-us-auditors-442362

"The legislation would require foreign companies to provide access to U.S. auditors to inspect their financial reports or else risk being prohibited from trading on any U.S. stock exchange or over-the-counter market."

"Congress also directed that the SEC rules require new disclosures from these companies, including whether they are under government control, have Chinese Communist Party officials on their corporate boards, and have any shares owned by governmental entities."

If they do not comply with the US requirement they have up to three years to comply.

I fully believe that the chinese stock own by big companies like Alibaba,  Nio, XPeng, JD, Tencent will comply given three years time is long enought. But the market have reacted negatively following this news and will impact on your return on these stocks.

What I have been doing sofar is to trim my position to reduce my exposure and taking some profit to chinese stocks. I will try to reeenter or adding my position back  again when the market has been stabilized and there is a news/declaration that they have complied with the US requirement.

It will be costly to reeenter but imho it is better rather than watching your profit is eaten day by day.

But at the same time it might be a good entry point for those who wanted to have a chinese stock exposures. After they have been cleared you will be rewarded. But do it with your own risk.

CashMoney

Hi people,
Looking to diversify my portfolio so thinking of adding an EV company. I missed out on Tesla way back when it was around 290 per share and was now looking at Nio and Nikola. Which of these are the better option to invest in?
Thanks

Apodemus

I'm afraid, if you are asking that sort of question, you might be best to avoid putting money into this sort of stock.  I certainly wouldn't advise you to invest much on the say-so of random people on the internet.

csgohan4

CashMoney said:

Hi people,
Looking to diversify my portfolio so thinking of adding an EV company. I missed out on Tesla way back when it was around 290 per share and was now looking at Nio and Nikola. Which of these are the better option to invest in?
Thanks

neither, unless you have money to spare and don't mind losing this

bowlhead99

CashMoney said:

Hi people,
Looking to diversify my portfolio so thinking of adding an EV company. I missed out on Tesla way back when it was around 290 per share and was now looking at Nio and Nikola. Which of these are the better option to invest in?
Thanks

Apodemus said:

I'm afraid, if you are asking that sort of question, you might be best to avoid putting money into this sort of stock.  I certainly wouldn't advise you to invest much on the say-so of random people on the internet.

This is just like the earlier question of someone who wanted to get exposure to oil so they were just going to pick Shell or BP because they were companies in the sector that they'd heard of, and might go up in value, and wanted to know 'which is best', without having any opinions for themselves.

If you've taken note of AnotherJoe's posts over the last few months (including on this thread) you will know that he feels Nikola is a fraud built on lies, while you can see that NIO has already gone up in value 10x within the space of the last 6 months, so if you apply the same 'I missed out on Tesla when it was $x' logic you would also say you've missed out on the easy money in Nio and may expect the gains from here to be tougher.

There is never any certainty in investing money speculatively into individual stocks, but you at least have a chance of controlling your risks and understanding what you're getting into if you do some thorough research for yourself. If you rely on someone else telling you what they would do, you're on the back foot.  Of the two, I don't hold Nikola. But my remaining Nio shares were essentially 'free' having sold enough a while back to get my original cost back out, and I don't plan to buy any more. I may sell some more to use up some CGT allowance if they are still holding onto their value later in the tax year.

csgohan4

I agree research is a must, from reliable sources, not motley Fool. 
You could consider  lower risk renewable investments, such as ETF's, INRG has been mentioned here. 

As mentioned before on here, today's winners can be tomorrow's losers as shown with Nikola in freefall 
The best time to invest was 10 years ago, the second best time is now. 

If you sit on the fence you may have a lost opportunity. I know I did with SMT and Tesla when they were cheap. But hindsight is wonderful

Username999

CashMoney said:

Hi people,
Looking to diversify my portfolio so thinking of adding an EV company. I missed out on Tesla way back when it was around 290 per share and was now looking at Nio and Nikola. Which of these are the better option to invest in?
Thanks

To even think of 'investing' in Nikola suggests to me that you have done zero research into the current EV sector.
Nio has a future, Nikola does not.
But if I were you I'd get 'EV exposure' by investing in SMT (Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust).
IMHO

Shocking_Blue

richtips86 said:

123mat123 said:

richtips86 said:

Another_Saver said:

richtips86 said:

Is anybody here looking at Zoetic International (ZOE) a UK listed but predominantly USA based CBD firm?! They just announced their first potentially company making RNS signing an agreement with AATAC.

ABF are getting into that too (could see that as the speculative element) while being a consumer staple co (food, agri, sugar  and brands) and owning Primark,whichyou could see as a value recovery play - they'll do ok of a recession as people shop down, and well in a recovery, focused on a comprehensive fashion/home/lifestyle in-person retail offering.
Valuation is reasonable, in normal times the div yield was 2% with 3x cover (the UK average is about a 2/3 payout ratio or 1.5x cover, implying if ABF were paying out the same the yield would be an average 4% for a quality co) and majority owned  by a family and foundation which to me indicates good governance and management (though I haven't researched it well enough to buy it, it is a co I would buy if index funds weren't available).

Yeah it’s definitely a hyped area. There’s a lot of governance stuff coming in over the next few months regarding novel foods and only those that have necessary licenses will be able to continue as a going concern.

My speculative punt is Kistos which was launched yesterday headed up by Andrew Austin of RRE fame!

Did you invest in Kistos, what was the motivation, not much info around to base a decision on, but they are up 7% today....

I have yeah, bought in yesterday at 112. Couldn’t on Wednesday because II didn’t have the stock available. Mainly due to my experiences with RRE and it’s the same guy running the show but starting with a higher cash float and that he’s invested £10m as well. Us lowly retail pi were treated pretty well first time around. 

You can’t base future returns on history so this really is a punt, but I’m happy with it. 

Just wondered if there were any updated opinions on Kist?