Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Username999

If you like ITM and Ceres, check out Plug Power (PLUG on the Nasdaq).
Jeff Bezos invested in them in 2017.

Cus

Username999 said:

If you like ITM and Ceres, check out Plug Power (PLUG on the Nasdaq).
Jeff Bezos invested in them in 2017.

Couldn't you have told me before today's 9% jump? 😀

house_help

bowlhead99 said:

The market hopes there will be an improved offer, but realistically the large holders will accept it, especially those who topped up at 1.28 in mid June and know they're getting a good deal from Caesars compared to the prevailing market price before the offer. It did go a bit over 300p when the fact there were multiple bids came out, but that was before we learned that the Caesars one was the biggest by some margin and had a poison pill of them walking away from the JV if someone else bought the business.

Apollo probably won't offer more because they'll lose the US market penetration via Caesars if Caesars walk away from the venture, so for Apollo to pay more money than Caesars were offering they would need to have their own angle that they could easily bolt some other prospect on to WMH and add the same value to make up for that loss. I don't see that happening. And there are limited other suitors (especially if a bid hostile to Caesars is going to destroy value by making Caesars walk off).  Betfred's founder (a major shareholder in WMH) was reported in the weekend papers as saying he didn't want to take over the whole business; I assume it's easier for him to just buy off the high street shops that he wants once Caesars inevitably put them up for sale in due course.

I sold the rest of my holding yesterday at 278.6 which after dealing costs is comfortably more than waiting around for regulatory clearance etc just to get the 272, and eliminates that delay and any downside risk. If for some reason it goes up, que sera sera. A bird in the hand etc, there are always alternative options for the proceeds which could return more than any improved offer even if one should materialise.

I see Trump tanked the US markets this evening by tweeting (presumably while high on antivirals and horse tranquilisers) that he had ordered his cronies to stop negotiating with the democrats for any more corona relief funding "...until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill...".  Markets have had to get used to government policy being set via random drunken tweets over the last four years, but perhaps there will be some sense of normality restored if he eventually gets kicked out. People looking for 'speculative punts' might do well to hold back some dry powder for options post the election result one way or another. On a related note  William Hill have better odds on Biden than Betfair (8/15 vs 4/9) though most of my money has gone on at Betfair at higher rates before the events of the last week. A few thousand pounds of proceeds would serve as much-needed 'stimulus' to my pension once Biden sets about reversing tax cuts to pay for Covid (and running the country in general), which Trump would of course never want to do. So perhaps you could call it a hedge against the election outcome's effects on markets.

After reading through your logic (esp poison pill) and reading bit more about it I also sold yesterday at 282 so just over 2x my money after stamp duty and the 2 x trade fees. Thanks for your thoughts

Now to find a home for that original money that is in my allocated high risk/punt (gain has gone into my HSBC GS Dynamic / core). Will have to check out some the names in here.

csgohan4

I am feeling another drop in the market coming, US elections, brexit failure, another potential lockdown to be announced today.

Better get your cash ready to strike

BrockStoker

csgohan4 said:

I am feeling another drop in the market coming, US elections, brexit failure, another potential lockdown to be announced today.

Better get your cash ready to strike

Wall Street heavy hitters are saying the exact opposite:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-next-big-market-mover-according-to-wall-st-123145981.html

Personally I think vaccines are likely to disappoint, although other therapeutics will make up for it. Poor vaccine data might well "tank" the markets in November, at least temporarily, but I doubt it would last long, and the market recovery will likely quickly resume.

Thrugelmir

The larger Pharma's are distancing themselves from Trump's claims that a "cure" will be announced in early November. 

Bobziz

Thrugelmir said:

The larger Pharma's are distancing themselves from Trump's claims that a "cure" will be announced in early November. 

which will take longer, finding a 'cure' or agreeing the result of the election.....

AnotherJoe

Ok so I've just put the money I made on TSLA 50/50 into NET and BYND. 

Thrugelmir

Bobziz said:

Thrugelmir said:

The larger Pharma's are distancing themselves from Trump's claims that a "cure" will be announced in early November. 

which will take longer, finding a 'cure' or agreeing the result of the election.....

Vaccine by a distance. Cure, possibly never.  

Ciprico

Think just I've just experienced "Netcall" at Nationwide - you call with a banking problem where bac transfers don't work, you go on-line to find a solution, can't find, so you telephone. You're instantly referred back to website as it apparently contains all types of helpful information (red mist starts to rise), You're then asked to describe your problem, but you know their stock responses won't help, you ask to speak to a person, the bot politely asks you to repeat, blah blah, then asks if your enquiry is about a credit card, savings account or mortgage. ...also asks you to key in your account number, which you know you will have to repeat when you finally get through to a person....
At this stage you put phone on speaker, go make a coffee and resign yourself to a 5 minute wait whilst the robot "timeouts" - at which point it will eventually put you through to a real person who possibly can help....
Horrible product !