Suggestions for a speculative punt?

AnotherJoe

Sold my Tesla (punt shares, still hold the main tranche, and Nio today. Both up about 15% from where I bought.

ElephantBoy57

I bought some Virgin Money shares today, I would have bought them a few months ago, if I had the cash.

They went from 90  the last week or two, I bought at 75

I do fear more declines in the market, but what do I know 

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

It's a bit of fun with 'play' money to alleviate the boredom. I'd be very cautious about reading anything into the logic behind the picks as well. Even on  a thread like this notice how you're focused on a poster's main winner rather than asking how their fun fund is doing overall? Success bias at play.

I don't invest for fund. Never have done. Your attempted belittling becomes very tedious. 

Sailtheworld

noClue said:

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

.... and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

How much is miniscule portion in this case?

like 0.5% of overall investment?

Well you'd have to ask the guy who made 84% on it. It's in the eye of the beholder but probably neither here nor there whether they win or lose. Impact on quality of life either way probably zero. Just a bit of fun.

Sailtheworld

Prism said:

noClue said:

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

.... and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

How much is miniscule portion in this case?

like 0.5% of overall investment?

Mine is worth about 1.5% of my SIPP. Net worth is a pointless stat so don't use that.

It depends. Someone having a speculative punt of a few hundred pounds when backed up by a paid off house plus state & DB pensions is one thing; someone betting the farm is another. The latter is always more interesting.

However noclue is asking the wrong questions in their quest for someone with an investment edge. The best performing stock in someone's portfolio and its % don't really help. 

Malthusian

Sailtheworld said:

It depends. Someone having a speculative punt of a few hundred pounds when backed up by a paid off house plus state & DB pensions is one thing; someone betting the farm is another. The latter is always more interesting.

Very true but it's funny that all three things you listed are not usually counted within "net worth". Not for this purpose anyway. For estate planning your primary residence does come under net worth, for retirement / lifestyle planning it does not. (Legal / regulatory definitions of "high net worth" never include the primary residence, for example.)

A DB pension should of course be counted for risk exposure purposes as it does alter capacity for loss, but it often isn't due to investors' tendency to compartmentalise. Especially once in payment, when there is usually no cash-in value. (And this one isn't counted under net worth for estate planning as it isn't part of the estate and expires without value on death, or that of spouse / dependents.)

A State Pension is, as has recently been pointed out to the WASPI 419ers, a state benefit and not an asset of any kind as there is no contractual right to it, therefore not part of net worth.

"1.5% of net worth" may be a pointless stat but "1.5% of my SIPP" is even more pointless. At least with the first option you could make a guess at what the poster meant by "net worth" and its significance to their finances.

Prism

Malthusian said:

Sailtheworld said:

It depends. Someone having a speculative punt of a few hundred pounds when backed up by a paid off house plus state & DB pensions is one thing; someone betting the farm is another. The latter is always more interesting.

Very true but it's funny that all three things you listed are not usually counted within "net worth". Not for this purpose anyway. For estate planning your primary residence does come under net worth, for retirement / lifestyle planning it does not. (Legal / regulatory definitions of "high net worth" never include the primary residence, for example.)

A DB pension should of course be counted for risk exposure purposes as it does alter capacity for loss, but it often isn't due to investors' tendency to compartmentalise. Especially once in payment, when there is usually no cash-in value. (And this one isn't counted under net worth for estate planning as it isn't part of the estate and expires without value on death, or that of spouse / dependents.)

A State Pension is, as has recently been pointed out to the WASPI 419ers, a state benefit and not an asset of any kind as there is no contractual right to it, therefore not part of net worth.

"1.5% of net worth" may be a pointless stat but "1.5% of my SIPP" is even more pointless. At least with the first option you could make a guess at what the poster meant by "net worth" and its significance to their finances.

Agreed, 1.5% is a pointless stat to anyone but me. The fact its 1.5% of my SIPP is only important to me. I was answering a bit of a vague question with a vague answer. 

Prism

Sailtheworld said:

Prism said:

noClue said:

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

.... and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

How much is miniscule portion in this case?

like 0.5% of overall investment?

Mine is worth about 1.5% of my SIPP. Net worth is a pointless stat so don't use that.

It depends. Someone having a speculative punt of a few hundred pounds when backed up by a paid off house plus state & DB pensions is one thing; someone betting the farm is another. The latter is always more interesting.

However noclue is asking the wrong questions in their quest for someone with an investment edge. The best performing stock in someone's portfolio and its % don't really help. 

I certainly don't have a knowledge of investing in equities to give me an edge as you refer to it - certainly not enough to do more than dabble with the odd riskier bet. I find some reliable fund managers to do that for me 

bowlhead99

bowlhead99 said:

csgohan4 said:
I am surprised William hill has gone up, didn't think they had such as online presence.

Their overall net revenue for the first half of the year was down about a third from previous year with the collapse of sporting events and people not being able to go into shops for a bit, but online net revenue wasn't down at all, picking up some of the slack from the stores and more people gambling while bored in lockdown, so online revenue was 67% of the (reduced) total. They became Caesars' exclusive sports betting partner in the US within the last couple of months, and then announced a co-exclusivity deal with Caesars and ESPN this week.

The share price quartered from the beginning of the year to the March bottom so has quadrupled since then to get back up over 200p, and I invested about half way up. I realise I must have put the wrong date on my post above, accidentally the same as Restaurant Group, but can't check the date now as AJBell is down for maintenance this weekend.

I see William Hill is up over 33% from this lunchtime's announcement responding to press speculation, that they had an offer from a PE firm a month ago and have since had a further offer from them and once from Caesars.  

End of day share price on 2 January: 195p
End of day share price at the bottom of the slump on 19 March: 36.7p
Price when I bought 14 May: 114p exdiv
Price a few minutes ago 25 Sep: 295.2p

I've sold some at 290 and will keep the rest to see if they end up doing a deal.

Moe_The_Bartender

Had a discussion with a mate about the respective merits of ITM and Ceres Power which ended with us each putting a grand into our choice with a small side bet as to which turns out the better in 12 months time. I went for Ceres.