Suggestions for a speculative punt?

bowlhead99

house_help said:

bowlhead99 said:

bowlhead99 said:

csgohan4 said:
I am surprised William hill has gone up, didn't think they had such as online presence.

Their overall net revenue for the first half of the year was down about a third from previous year with the collapse of sporting events and people not being able to go into shops for a bit, but online net revenue wasn't down at all, picking up some of the slack from the stores and more people gambling while bored in lockdown, so online revenue was 67% of the (reduced) total. They became Caesars' exclusive sports betting partner in the US within the last couple of months, and then announced a co-exclusivity deal with Caesars and ESPN this week.

The share price quartered from the beginning of the year to the March bottom so has quadrupled since then to get back up over 200p, and I invested about half way up. I realise I must have put the wrong date on my post above, accidentally the same as Restaurant Group, but can't check the date now as AJBell is down for maintenance this weekend.

I see William Hill is up over 33% from this lunchtime's announcement responding to press speculation, that they had an offer from a PE firm a month ago and have since had a further offer from them and once from Caesars.  

End of day share price on 2 January: 195p
End of day share price at the bottom of the slump on 19 March: 36.7p
Price when I bought 14 May: 114p exdiv
Price a few minutes ago 25 Sep: 295.2p

I've sold some at 290 and will keep the rest to see if they end up doing a deal.

I bought some 1 June @ 140p. Have not sold any yet. Slightly odd situation now that recommended offer price from Caesars is 272p but the share price is sitting at 280p. Suggests that market still think Apollo may come with higher bid and / or hedge funds buying up shares above the 272 to stop Caesars buying shares (they cannot buy above 272) and push them to increase the current offer before they accept and help get the numbers they need. A few analysts have said its worth more plus also it went over 300p on the day of the confirmed bids. Think I will just hold and see what happens - either higher bid will come in, caersars offer goes through  at 272 or if shareholder reject I guess there is downside risk it will slip back down well below the offer price again - I am OK with that and keep as long term hold as I think their position in US is valuable and will bring rewards in longterm.

The market hopes there will be an improved offer, but realistically the large holders will accept it, especially those who topped up at 1.28 in mid June and know they're getting a good deal from Caesars compared to the prevailing market price before the offer. It did go a bit over 300p when the fact there were multiple bids came out, but that was before we learned that the Caesars one was the biggest by some margin and had a poison pill of them walking away from the JV if someone else bought the business.

Apollo probably won't offer more because they'll lose the US market penetration via Caesars if Caesars walk away from the venture, so for Apollo to pay more money than Caesars were offering they would need to have their own angle that they could easily bolt some other prospect on to WMH and add the same value to make up for that loss. I don't see that happening. And there are limited other suitors (especially if a bid hostile to Caesars is going to destroy value by making Caesars walk off).  Betfred's founder (a major shareholder in WMH) was reported in the weekend papers as saying he didn't want to take over the whole business; I assume it's easier for him to just buy off the high street shops that he wants once Caesars inevitably put them up for sale in due course.

I sold the rest of my holding yesterday at 278.6 which after dealing costs is comfortably more than waiting around for regulatory clearance etc just to get the 272, and eliminates that delay and any downside risk. If for some reason it goes up, que sera sera. A bird in the hand etc, there are always alternative options for the proceeds which could return more than any improved offer even if one should materialise.

I see Trump tanked the US markets this evening by tweeting (presumably while high on antivirals and horse tranquilisers) that he had ordered his cronies to stop negotiating with the democrats for any more corona relief funding "...until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill...".  Markets have had to get used to government policy being set via random drunken tweets over the last four years, but perhaps there will be some sense of normality restored if he eventually gets kicked out. People looking for 'speculative punts' might do well to hold back some dry powder for options post the election result one way or another. On a related note  William Hill have better odds on Biden than Betfair (8/15 vs 4/9) though most of my money has gone on at Betfair at higher rates before the events of the last week. A few thousand pounds of proceeds would serve as much-needed 'stimulus' to my pension once Biden sets about reversing tax cuts to pay for Covid (and running the country in general), which Trump would of course never want to do. So perhaps you could call it a hedge against the election outcome's effects on markets.

csgohan4

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

ElephantBoy57

csgohan4 said:

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

My punt was Virgin Money UK plc at around 98, they went down to 75, so I bought some and they are now at 81.

AnotherJoe

csgohan4 said:

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

10th July I started this ? Or by "on here" did you mean the investment forum?

csgohan4

AnotherJoe said:

csgohan4 said:

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

10th July I started this ? Or by "on here" did you mean the investment forum?

I lied was nov 2018 in the savings forum, although Bowelhead mentioned it in Nov 17 even, bet they got a handsome profit by now

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/75075226#Comment_75075226

Thrugelmir

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Share prices rise and fall. That's the nature of markets. 

bowlhead99

csgohan4 said:

AnotherJoe said:

csgohan4 said:

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

10th July I started this ? Or by "on here" did you mean the investment forum?

I lied was nov 2018 in the savings forum, although Bowelhead mentioned it in Nov 17 even, bet they got a handsome profit by now

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/75075226#Comment_75075226

I mentioned it much earlier than 2017, as have been using it for over a decade, so yes, handsome profits. Here's an example from summer 2013
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/62641553#Comment_62641553

It's returned a nice round 500% since that post in 2013. However, from back then to the pre-Covid, mid-February peak this year it was 'only' up 300%, and then it's literally shot up by another half in under eight months. 

I must admit to selling some in early March being wary of how fast a concentrated equities play like SMT could fall in uncertain times, although it's obviously done well since then and with hindsight the other things I put the proceeds into haven't grown any faster than it, so I could have just left it (at least, not the ones which were collective investments; there have been some nice returns on individual stocks bought at low prices).

csgohan4

bowlhead99 said:

csgohan4 said:

AnotherJoe said:

csgohan4 said:

Cus said:

Great thread. Just went back through the last 10 pages or so, checked out the current share price of quite a few suggestions from early September onwards and tbh most have gone down.

Of course this is a speculative thread after all but there are a few gems on here that were mentioned last Dec, SMT being one of them, more than doubled in price since then. Not to mention Tesla, Apple going up

10th July I started this ? Or by "on here" did you mean the investment forum?

I lied was nov 2018 in the savings forum, although Bowelhead mentioned it in Nov 17 even, bet they got a handsome profit by now

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/75075226#Comment_75075226

I mentioned it much earlier than 2017, as have been using it for over a decade, so yes, handsome profits. Here's an example from summer 2013 (https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/62641553#Comment_62641553) 
It's returned a nice round 500% since the post in 2013. However, from back then to the pre-Covid, mid-February peak this year it was 'only' up 300%, and then it's literally shot up by another half in under eight months. 

I must admit to selling some in early March being wary of how fast a concentrated equities play like SMT could fall in uncertain times, although it's obviously done well since then and with hindsight the other things I put the proceeds into haven't grown any faster than it, so I could have just left it (at least, not the ones which were collective investments; there have been some nice returns on individual stocks bought at low prices).

Are you a friend of Warren Buffet? Things are much easier in hindsight, wished I jumped on the SMT gravy train earlier , I had my button set on SMT but I chickened out with the Passive investor in me to get me to put it into my global tracker and fear of a tech bubble collapse, which hasn't happened yet, albeit a blip on 7/9. 

My buy order on 860 is still sitting dormant sadly

Ciprico

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Had a discussion with a mate about the respective merits of ITM and Ceres Power which ended with us each putting a grand into our choice with a small side bet as to which turns out the better in 12 months time. I went for Ceres.

Both ITM and Ceres up 5% today - go and serve yourself and your mate a pint...
I bought Ceres after seeing this, which may or may not be a good reason. Since the video was shot Bosch have bought a chunk of Ceres. I bought ITM after a tip on this forum, and a bit of my own research. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCs9OOHP-0o   
Video also answers the question - "Whatever happend to Kriton off Red Dwarf", the answer, he became a green power envangelist !

Thrugelmir

123mat123 said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Had a discussion with a mate about the respective merits of ITM and Ceres Power which ended with us each putting a grand into our choice with a small side bet as to which turns out the better in 12 months time. I went for Ceres.

Both ITM and Ceres up 5% today - go and serve yourself and your mate a pint...
I bought Ceres after seeing this, which may or may not be a good reason. Since the video was shot Bosch have bought a chunk of Ceres. I bought ITM after a tip on this forum, and a bit of my own research. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCs9OOHP-0o   
Video also answers the question - "Whatever happend to Kriton off Red Dwarf", the answer, he became a green power envangelist !

Bosch is investing hard cash for further equity. To maintain a decent holding you'll need to buy more shares in the open market to avoid getting diluted. Ceres is burning cash. Will continue to do so until it has a commercial proposition.