Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

Prism

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close tp 50% as was slightly down. ut if y0u look back on September 4, 200 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

Its no longer the 4th September so not much point in selecting that date so from the low point on the 23rd March the S&P return is still under 50%. Also, most people on this site would be investing in GBP not dollars which puts the S&P 500 return at about 29%. Even then the results of an index are often influenced by a very small selection of stocks which do well, especially when that small selection are huge companies like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. Year to date the majority of US companies in the S&P are still negative.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. 

I do now reflect and wonder why a choose such a poorly performing company to invest in. Was a bad decision. I'll look forward to your share recommendations in future. 

Sailtheworld

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

50% return since March as a benchmark - I wish!

84% is an excellent return but it needs to be put into context. It's a speculative punt thread where the amounts being put at risk are backed by the last of the DB pensions and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

It's a bit of fun with 'play' money to alleviate the boredom. I'd be very cautious about reading anything into the logic behind the picks as well. Even on  a thread like this notice how you're focused on a poster's main winner rather than asking how their fun fund is doing overall? Success bias at play.

Sailtheworld

I hope anyone into Nikola as a speculative punt only put fun money into it - going to be an exciting day!

I can't help thinking it might make people look at Tesla's P/E and start to wonder...

barnstar2077

Sailtheworld said:

I hope anyone into Nikola as a speculative punt only put fun money into it - going to be an exciting day!

I can't help thinking it might make people look at Tesla's P/E and start to wonder...

I am very glad that I decided not to invest and to stick to my passive investing guns when that report broke! 

noClue

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

.... and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

How much is miniscule portion in this case?

like 0.5% of overall investment?

noClue

bowlhead99 said:

123mat123 said:

Well, of the small punts I've made in last 6 months (in total less than 1% of total holdings...)
ITM power  -14%
Wisdom tree cloud -5%
Ceres Power +11%
Ishares gold  +10% (sold), gold went up with equities, disproving everything I thought I knew about gold
Nio Inc SPON  +2.75 %
overall result - no gain / no loss, but made life interesting, but still optimistic for longer term....

The ones I have at >50% over the last 6 months:

...

@bowlhead99

What do you mean by "at >50%"?

Prism

noClue said:

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Current best smallish punt is Avon Rubber at 84% (of those at the March dip).  Worst is Exelon at -13%. Though much of this is an exchange rate loss. 

Well if you boughtt shares during the market crash around 3rd/4th weeks of March, 84% is not a good return. Unless they are directly effected by COVID-19 such as Cruises, Airlines, Travel Agents, Banks, most stocks will give you  a return of 50%+ to this date while they are recovering from the COVID-19 stock arket crash.

You are saying that most stocks from late March have returned 50%+ ? That is clearly not true as most stocks, although have recovered somewhat have returned much less than that. Some examples that have not are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon in GBP terms. The majority of UK stocks are nowhere near. 84% is a great return.

S&P 500 Close to 50% as was slightly down. But if you look back on September 4, 2020 (50%+)

S&P 500 vs FTSE 100

A return of 50%+ low risk vs 84% with much high risk with individual share ? I agree this is subject to interpretation.

.... and represent a miniscule portion of the punters net worth.

How much is miniscule portion in this case?

like 0.5% of overall investment?

Mine is worth about 1.5% of my SIPP. Net worth is a pointless stat so don't use that.

bowlhead99

noClue said:

bowlhead99 said:

123mat123 said:

Well, of the small punts I've made in last 6 months (in total less than 1% of total holdings...)
ITM power  -14%
Wisdom tree cloud -5%
Ceres Power +11%
Ishares gold  +10% (sold), gold went up with equities, disproving everything I thought I knew about gold
Nio Inc SPON  +2.75 %
overall result - no gain / no loss, but made life interesting, but still optimistic for longer term....

The ones I have at >50% over the last 6 months:

...

@bowlhead99

What do you mean by "at >50%"?

"at >50% over the last 6 months" meaning "the ones that are showing a return of greater than 50% over the last 6 months"   

For example including the ones that  returned 77% or 91% or 62% or 94% or 53% etc., where my holdings had been added to within the last 6 months. But not also listing the ones with more modest returns of e.g. 10% or 20% or 35% bought in the same timescale, because OP's thread was not about listing stocks with the potential for good returns over a longer time period, but aiming to return multiples of an initial investment to 'double it a few times' when going 'all in on a few investments'.

The 6 months period was only because 123mat123 had mentioned that time period in the post above it; obviously as it included mid-March to early April there were a number of 'bargains' around which were no longer available by the time this thread started which is why I put the dates as an indication.