Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

BrockStoker said:

When I first invested in AMRS back in June 2020 it was a very speculative company (bought 1200 @ ~$4.25), and ended up selling those for a slight loss, but jumped back in with 1000 @ $2.88 p/s in October. The share price peaked mid-march of 2021 @ $23.42 (around 686% gain), and it's been mostly all down from there till a few days back.

Back in June 2020 Amyris had just one operational manufacturing facility, if memory serves, but more importantly they had not yet proved that they could scale the manufacturing process. Today the story is very different. They have shown that they can scale manufacturing and make it profitable. They also have three manufacturing facilities, with a forth being planned.

The main problems as far as investors have been concerned are CEO Melo over promising and under-delivering. The market has basically priced AMRS as if it was a company that is not expected to deliver anything, but that is not the case. The delivery will be a little longer, that's all - hardly justification of driving the price back to levels not seen since I first bought. The other thing that made investors freak out was the cash burn, and Melo spending despite cautious monetary policy being the "order of the day".

There are always multiple ways to look at things. The market viewed the above two "crimes" as bad for investors, and while I don't like delays, they are not the end of the world, and actually, Melo making acquisitions at a time like this may not be such a bad idea, providing of course financing isn't going to be a problem, and I don't think it will! I think Melo is a very smart and focused CEO, who has said on at least one occasion that his aim is to build significant long term share holder value (possibly at the expense of the short term). His Achilles heal has been his over optimistic predictions, but he appears to be reigning those in now.

Going back to financing, Amyris is in a stronger position than markets appreciate. It's business revolves around a platform that spits out valuable molecules at a high rate (up to 4 per year) - the goose which lays the golden eggs as it were. It can pick/choose which molecules to license/sell off or if it wants to keep them for itself to use in it's own brands. It has proved it can successfully grow brands, turning them into very profitable assets. As it can control almost the entire supply chain, shareholder profits are maximized. Strategic partnerships/deals can quickly raise cash when needed without sacrificing much, and Melo says one such deal is already in the pipeline and should generate over $200m in cash in the next quarter or two.

So I think Amyris is actually in a very strong position going forward, and looks set to spearhead the synthetic biology revolution. Sustainability is rapidly becoming more important if we are going to survive as a species, and Amyris has part of the solution. The other day institutional investments in AMRS were at their highest ever level, 73%, after the massive rout, which got rid of many weak hands. Institutional investors include The Gates Foundation and John Doerr (also on the BOD).

One long term investor named Nadeem on the YHF message board for AMRS who always talks good sense recently had this to say:

"Over the weekend I thought a lot about "Why am I still invested in AMRS and is it worth the wait?" I came back with two solid reasons for my investment in this company: John Doerr and AMRS platform. Let me elaborate on both:
1) John Doerr: This billionaire is legendary, he was one of the initial investors in Google, when no body thought Internet would be this big and let alone Searching on the Internet will be a Billion dollar industry. He was on the board of Google, and literally mentored Sergey and Larry google co-founders into a successful business. He has repeated successes with Intel, Amazon and many more. Now his latest focus is on ESG and AMRS just so happens to be in his wheelhouse. Now he is not just throwing some money and watching from the sidelines, he actually quit other company boards (Amazon), to be more focused on AMRS board and few other companies. He installed John Melo to bring to light his vision, which is sustainability along with making money for him. Would he really let loose on 30% ownership of the company or would he protect and grow it? For him it's not just about making money but also on a mission to achieve ESG goals, no matter the price of it. Billionaires generally like to make a name for themselves and leave a legacy behind.
2) AMRS Platform: I know there were many discussions about if selling Biossance is a good idea or not. I think it's worth doing it, in fact that may have been the plan all along. The goal of Biossance is to enable the Beauty industry with Clean tech, I think Biossance already did a good job of that. It created awareness of Squalene and other clean ingredients so much that the competitors are also forced to use those ingredients, hence increasing the market for it and benefiting AMRS. The financial aspect of it also makes sense, it proves to the market that AMRS is in fact is the Golden Goose that can keep laying Golden Eggs that can grow into pretty darn huge eggs and can be sold individually.
So I am all for selling Biossance, the only caveat is Melo's timing is never perfect, he did grow Biossance into a Billion dollar business. However what may have been offered for Biossance 3 months back, may not be the same offer now. Macro economics have changed a lot recently. Every company is now in Cash preservation mode, so the initial offers can be re-negotiated, and AMRS does not exactly have a upper hand at the table. I am however a little hopeful about the $250 Million molecule monetization, that proves again how AMRS platform can be monetized as needed. Either sell established molecules or sell established brands, so they get the cash to re-invest in the Golden Goose their platform to churn out more. At this point the cash is better spent on increasing capacity in their plants. So looking forward to some first class execution on Bara Bonita and financial deals to clear the way..... Until then we just do what we always do, Hope and Hold!"

I think it might just be one of the best opportunities in the history of this thread. How many other companies in completely new industries have been mentioned? While it does still qualify as speculative, AMRS is now close to the inflection point where it either proves to the market it can go cash positive, or not. The next two quarters are crucial and we will see one way or the other.

I currently have 17.5K of AMRS @ around $4.50 average per share. Given that Melo has a long term focus, and markets don't (?), I'm not going to expect a smooth ride from here, but this is one stock which could easily go ballistic, as Friday's trading session demonstrated - +38% @ 3x average volume on a moderately green market day. I believe that was a clear change in sentiment, and AMRS has seen the bottom.

HSBC recently gave AMRS a $9 PT and said:

"Feeling the burn: Amyris is the clear product leader in synbio and clean beauty. The platform works beyond doubt, it can manufacture products at commercial scale, it can build brands and scale them too."

Just be aware AMRS just released their Q1: 2022-05-10 Earnings

Result: EPS of -$0.34 misses by $0.04 | Revenue of $57.71M (-67.37% Y/Y) misses by $7.74M

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509715-amyris-inc-amrs-ceo-john-melo-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

In this current environment the market is very hostile toward the unprofitable company. Let alone missing the EPS target, they will be severely punished. It does not matter how good they are. The reasonable way for the stock  price to move up is a strong catalysts. Otherwise they will be moving sideways or even keep dropping until the bear market is over as the people do not like to throw their money in the current market environment.

In average the bear market take about 10 months. But the longest bear market took 61 months. Let alone the high inflation and the war in Ukraine which effect the supply chain, food and energy supply.

Also I just skim their fundamental and the analyst PT.  The analysts PT were made early November before the market downturn has started 2021, so it has not taken into consideration the current bear market, as well as missing the Q1 2022 earning

Their debt level although is not that pristine and still their debt is higher than their equity.

I have  seen many biotech companies worse that this manage to survive. 

A good company should have D/E ratio much lower than 1. But this is slightly negated by current ratio which is 1.77 (higher than 1)  indicating that they still have enough current  asset to cover their current liability in case they go into administration.

In the last 12 months there are more insiders are selling their shares rather than buying

The good things is their future Growth potential scored 5 out of 6

Also but who knows when they have successful test or product approved by authority it is not uncommon they will jump 100-200%+ in just one day.

BrockStoker

Thrugelmir said:

BrockStoker said:

Thrugelmir said:

BrockStoker said:

My one worry right now is: Are the current market conditions in danger of pushing many small/fast growing companies, which would otherwise go on to thrive, toward bankruptcy?

Are you referring in particular to US smaller companies with a listing on the Nasdaq?  Rather the broader picture which includes private companies. 

Well it's small to mid-caps on the NASDAQ which make up the bulk of my individual share holdings, so that is the area which concerns me most, but I'm also curious as to how the ripples will affect other markets - probably limited impact I suspect. I'm not overly worried, but my individual share holdings have become quite substantial now, so I remain on alert and will proceed with caution from here, not wanting to have any "nee-jerk" reactions.

Like the end of the Dot Com era. Focus will return to companies that actually making a profit. Or will do so in a relatively short period of time. Rapidly rising US interest rates will result in a guaranteed no risk return being available. Depressing the share prices of companies where profitability is currently a distant dream. Investors are again going to demand a sizable premium to invest speculatively. The only people that have benefitted from some of the listings are the management team, their private equity backers and the investment banks.

As an aside. There's been comment that Musk's approach to Twitter is simply a smokescreen to liquidate some Tesla shares why the going is good. Would be typical of the cynical attitude that prevails in the US Corporate world. 

As long as the market is not hell bent on trashing a company which is becoming profitable for the first time, and growing it's profits at a healthy clip, then I'm not at all concerned. It does look like the markets are starting to become a little more rational.

I can kind of sympathize with Musk. If I had his holdings I'd certainly want to lock in some profit/diversify my investments. Quite a predicament to find ones self in, but I'm sure he'll do fine come what may!

BrockStoker

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

When I first invested in AMRS back in June 2020 it was a very speculative company (bought 1200 @ ~$4.25), and ended up selling those for a slight loss, but jumped back in with 1000 @ $2.88 p/s in October. The share price peaked mid-march of 2021 @ $23.42 (around 686% gain), and it's been mostly all down from there till a few days back.

Back in June 2020 Amyris had just one operational manufacturing facility, if memory serves, but more importantly they had not yet proved that they could scale the manufacturing process. Today the story is very different. They have shown that they can scale manufacturing and make it profitable. They also have three manufacturing facilities, with a forth being planned.

The main problems as far as investors have been concerned are CEO Melo over promising and under-delivering. The market has basically priced AMRS as if it was a company that is not expected to deliver anything, but that is not the case. The delivery will be a little longer, that's all - hardly justification of driving the price back to levels not seen since I first bought. The other thing that made investors freak out was the cash burn, and Melo spending despite cautious monetary policy being the "order of the day".

There are always multiple ways to look at things. The market viewed the above two "crimes" as bad for investors, and while I don't like delays, they are not the end of the world, and actually, Melo making acquisitions at a time like this may not be such a bad idea, providing of course financing isn't going to be a problem, and I don't think it will! I think Melo is a very smart and focused CEO, who has said on at least one occasion that his aim is to build significant long term share holder value (possibly at the expense of the short term). His Achilles heal has been his over optimistic predictions, but he appears to be reigning those in now.

Going back to financing, Amyris is in a stronger position than markets appreciate. It's business revolves around a platform that spits out valuable molecules at a high rate (up to 4 per year) - the goose which lays the golden eggs as it were. It can pick/choose which molecules to license/sell off or if it wants to keep them for itself to use in it's own brands. It has proved it can successfully grow brands, turning them into very profitable assets. As it can control almost the entire supply chain, shareholder profits are maximized. Strategic partnerships/deals can quickly raise cash when needed without sacrificing much, and Melo says one such deal is already in the pipeline and should generate over $200m in cash in the next quarter or two.

So I think Amyris is actually in a very strong position going forward, and looks set to spearhead the synthetic biology revolution. Sustainability is rapidly becoming more important if we are going to survive as a species, and Amyris has part of the solution. The other day institutional investments in AMRS were at their highest ever level, 73%, after the massive rout, which got rid of many weak hands. Institutional investors include The Gates Foundation and John Doerr (also on the BOD).

One long term investor named Nadeem on the YHF message board for AMRS who always talks good sense recently had this to say:

"Over the weekend I thought a lot about "Why am I still invested in AMRS and is it worth the wait?" I came back with two solid reasons for my investment in this company: John Doerr and AMRS platform. Let me elaborate on both:
1) John Doerr: This billionaire is legendary, he was one of the initial investors in Google, when no body thought Internet would be this big and let alone Searching on the Internet will be a Billion dollar industry. He was on the board of Google, and literally mentored Sergey and Larry google co-founders into a successful business. He has repeated successes with Intel, Amazon and many more. Now his latest focus is on ESG and AMRS just so happens to be in his wheelhouse. Now he is not just throwing some money and watching from the sidelines, he actually quit other company boards (Amazon), to be more focused on AMRS board and few other companies. He installed John Melo to bring to light his vision, which is sustainability along with making money for him. Would he really let loose on 30% ownership of the company or would he protect and grow it? For him it's not just about making money but also on a mission to achieve ESG goals, no matter the price of it. Billionaires generally like to make a name for themselves and leave a legacy behind.
2) AMRS Platform: I know there were many discussions about if selling Biossance is a good idea or not. I think it's worth doing it, in fact that may have been the plan all along. The goal of Biossance is to enable the Beauty industry with Clean tech, I think Biossance already did a good job of that. It created awareness of Squalene and other clean ingredients so much that the competitors are also forced to use those ingredients, hence increasing the market for it and benefiting AMRS. The financial aspect of it also makes sense, it proves to the market that AMRS is in fact is the Golden Goose that can keep laying Golden Eggs that can grow into pretty darn huge eggs and can be sold individually.
So I am all for selling Biossance, the only caveat is Melo's timing is never perfect, he did grow Biossance into a Billion dollar business. However what may have been offered for Biossance 3 months back, may not be the same offer now. Macro economics have changed a lot recently. Every company is now in Cash preservation mode, so the initial offers can be re-negotiated, and AMRS does not exactly have a upper hand at the table. I am however a little hopeful about the $250 Million molecule monetization, that proves again how AMRS platform can be monetized as needed. Either sell established molecules or sell established brands, so they get the cash to re-invest in the Golden Goose their platform to churn out more. At this point the cash is better spent on increasing capacity in their plants. So looking forward to some first class execution on Bara Bonita and financial deals to clear the way..... Until then we just do what we always do, Hope and Hold!"

I think it might just be one of the best opportunities in the history of this thread. How many other companies in completely new industries have been mentioned? While it does still qualify as speculative, AMRS is now close to the inflection point where it either proves to the market it can go cash positive, or not. The next two quarters are crucial and we will see one way or the other.

I currently have 17.5K of AMRS @ around $4.50 average per share. Given that Melo has a long term focus, and markets don't (?), I'm not going to expect a smooth ride from here, but this is one stock which could easily go ballistic, as Friday's trading session demonstrated - +38% @ 3x average volume on a moderately green market day. I believe that was a clear change in sentiment, and AMRS has seen the bottom.

HSBC recently gave AMRS a $9 PT and said:

"Feeling the burn: Amyris is the clear product leader in synbio and clean beauty. The platform works beyond doubt, it can manufacture products at commercial scale, it can build brands and scale them too."

Just be aware AMRS just released their Q1: 2022-05-10 Earnings

Result: EPS of -$0.34 misses by $0.04 | Revenue of $57.71M (-67.37% Y/Y) misses by $7.74M

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509715-amyris-inc-amrs-ceo-john-melo-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

In this current environment the market is very hostile toward the unprofitable company. Let alone missing the EPS target, they will be severely punished. It does not matter how good they are. The reasonable way for the stock  price to move up is a strong catalysts. Otherwise they will be moving sideways or even keep dropping until the bear market is over as the people do not like to throw their money in the current market environment.

In average the bear market take about 10 months. But the longest bear market took 61 months. Let alone the high inflation and the war in Ukraine which effect the supply chain, food and energy supply.

Also I just skim their fundamental and the analyst PT.  The analysts PT were made early November before the market downturn has started 2021, so it has not taken into consideration the current bear market, as well as missing the Q1 2022 earning

Their debt level although is not that pristine and still their debt is higher than their equity.

I have  seen many biotech companies worse that this manage to survive. 

A good company should have D/E ratio much lower than 1. But this is slightly negated by current ratio which is 1.77 (higher than 1)  indicating that they still have enough current  asset to cover their current liability in case they go into administration.

In the last 12 months there are more insiders are selling their shares rather than buying

The good things is their future Growth potential scored 5 out of 6

Also but who knows when they have successful test or product approved by authority it is not uncommon they will jump 100-200%+ in just one day.

Well aware of the slightly negative earnings AMRS recently posted. I think investors realize that there will be less cash burn over the rest of the year, which will mean the next earnings/cash position should look much better. It looks like institutional buying is continuing - either way the share price seems to be continuing a strong recovery (with good volume) today. Weather or not that reverses if the markets get jittery again is another question. My bet is that we have probably seen the bottom for AMRS, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it dip back down there again, if markets go south.

adindas

Timing the Market during the BEAR MARKET is not uncommon, HFs managers are doing that all the time, contrarians are doing that, Warren Buffet is doing that. But keep in mind these people are mainly investing in individual stocks, not index fund or globally diversified funds. Also they have tools, good understanding of fundamental analysis, technical analysis the first people to know various news regarding the stock market to gauge the best time to strike. They do not get it 100% right but they just need 50%+ right to beat the other alternative e.g not timing the market. This is just one examples of many HF managers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofgTKLRmnc8

(We're still 50% in cash, and I wish we would've stayed at 70%, says Loup Ventures' Gene Munster)

For ordinary people investing in blue chip good stock or fund containing a lot of high growth stocks DCA especially during the read days will normally beat Lump sum during the  BEAR MARKET. I have posted statistics about this previously.

Just imagine those who threw lump-sum £100k+ in either day during November 2021 to April 2022 especially in tech high growth stocks or fund containing a large number of high growth stocks. What happen with their money now, going down 50%-70% ??

This is the statistics about average cash level of fund managers.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13302671/extremely-bearish-fund-managers-take-cash-to-highest-levels-since-911-attacks

Thrugelmir

Selectively purchasing stocks is rather different to timing the "market".  It's a strategy worth adopting in times of high volatility. 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

Selectively purchasing stocks is rather different to timing the "market".  It's a strategy worth adopting in times of high volatility. 

Sensible investors will always selective when buying any asset. It is nothing to do with timing the market. People don't just blindly buy a stock just because many people are buying it.

Selective buying will always be criteria, it does not really matter whether it is a bear or bull market, whether it is a high or low volatility environment. That is what DYORs, DDs is for to determine which stock to buy.

Earning season for instance, it does not care, it is a bull or bear market it always come every quarter. When a company misses the target they will get punished by Mr. market.

This is just one example, Walmart (WMT) a defensive Blue-chip stock in a sector which supposed to be performing well (e.g Staple food), but get punished by the market, down 20%+ in 2 days by missing EPS of 16c

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Selectively purchasing stocks is rather different to timing the "market".  It's a strategy worth adopting in times of high volatility. 

Sensible investors will always selective when buying any asset. It is nothing to do with timing the market. People don't just blindly buy a stock just because many people are buying it.

Selective buying will always be criteria, it does not really matter whether it is a bear or bull market, whether it is a high or low volatility environment. That is what DYORs, DDs is for to determine which stock to buy.

Earning season for instance, it does not care, it is a bull or bear market it always come every quarter. When a company misses the target they will get punished by Mr. market.

This is just one example, Walmart (WMT) a defensive Blue-chip stock in a sector which supposed to be performing well (e.g Staple food), but get punished by the market, down 20%+ in 2 days by missing EPS of 16c

I'd suggest that people do. No shortage of investors that buy the fund of the moment. SMT, INRG immediately spring to mind in recent times. No thought to what's in the tin. Some investors , myself included, are prepared to spend considerable time researching and building sizable stakes in individual companies. Simply giving examples such as Walmart on the cuff is somewhat meaningless. 

adindas

S&P500 is officially already in bear Market today May 20, 2022 down to 20.7% below its January record.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sp500-stocks-bear-market-nasdaq-recession

NASDAQ is already in bear Market since March 2022

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

S&P500 is officially already in bear Market today May 20, 2022 down to 20.7% below its January record.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sp500-stocks-bear-market-nasdaq-recession

NASDAQ is already in bear Market since March 2022

There's a universe of investments outside the USA,,,,,,,,

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

S&P500 is officially already in bear Market today May 20, 2022 down to 20.7% below its January record.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sp500-stocks-bear-market-nasdaq-recession

NASDAQ is already in bear Market since March 2022

There's a universe of investments outside the USA,,,,,,,,

Bear market in the US will have global impact due to the size of US stock Markets.

Many companies listed in NASDAQ composite are global companies.

It also includes many foreign stocks listed as American depositary receipts (ADRs).