Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Michael121

What i find interesting is all the 2020 new investors, YTbers , youngsters have had the same idea. I was one of them, should see my play money portfolio up 100s of percent from last year when i started investing. Im glad i didn't invest real money now because i may have done a lot less learning last year and instead thought i knew it all and continue to invest in my ideas that i thought were my own. 

I honestly don't know what made me pick some of the stocks i chose, some i just thought would eventually make a comeback like travel, but because i didn't know exactly what i was doing i avoided gambling with my money.

Thrugelmir

snooloui said:

Price targets are mostly meaningless as is most stock market commentary. 

There's some 4,000 micro and smaller company shares listed on European markets. If you evaluated one a day it would 20 years to get through them all. Unlike Amazon which is covered continually by 54 full time individual analysts. Some are covered by just one investment house . Without stock market commentary you'd spend a lot of wasted time.  Anyone can spot a good business. Can you spot a good investment?  Very different things. 

Thrugelmir

underground99 said:

benbay001 said:

So, from your link, the top mutual fund holding is "Growth Fund Of America Inc" who, had you bought them in 2000 at the peak of 35usd, you would have seen negative returns when adjusted for inflation until 2018 when it hit 55usd.
(inflation over that period was 59% https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html) 
So, remind me again how professional these people are?

The decade from 2000 was a poor one for US stocks, and a lot of US-focused growth funds had not recovered from the dot-com collapse and made much in real terms before the global financial crisis hit towards the tail end of the decade.  Still, from 31/12/00 to 31/12/20 the fund would have turned an investor's $10k into $54.6k nominal

If you had bought the Nasdaq as an index tracker in 2000 (as a US investor). It would have taken until 2013 to just return to positive territory. That's without inflation.  I suspect most people would have moved their money elsewhere in the intervening period. Into the more long standing and stable S&P 500.  Boring but consistent. The old ideas never die. 

adindas

It seems those who are taking risk are now rewarded, is it not ? Oh I love volatility 

NedS

adindas said:

It seems those who are taking risk are now rewarded, is it not ? Oh I love volatility 

With great risk comes great potential for loss. The first rule of investing states don't lose your capital.

sevenhills

adindas said:

It seems those who are taking risk are now rewarded, is it not ? Oh I love volatility 

I bought some i3 Energy shares a couple of weeks ago, up 20% now. I might hang on for more increases.

adindas

NedS said:

adindas said:

It seems those who are taking risk are now rewarded, is it not ? Oh I love volatility 

With great risk comes great potential for loss. The first rule of investing states don't lose your capital.

That is Warren Buffet rule of investing.  "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."

You do not blindly take the risk for nothing.  You will only take the risk when you believe the reward is much higher then the risk you are taking. Any investment will always involve some level of risks.

justworriedabit

How do people feel about ITV? My husband wanted to buy ITB sub 100p at about 70p. I said don't due to the uncertainty surround Covid, risk of etc. He has tried his hand in ITV a few years ago and made a few hundred pounds within a month.
I said to him the number of tv stations popping up its only a matter of time before almost everyone has one. Then you have online, nowtv, netflix, apple, cbs, youtube, rouketv and hundreds more and no dividends.
Thanks.

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

There's some 4,000 micro and smaller company shares listed on European markets. If you evaluated one a day it would 20 years to get through them all. Unlike Amazon which is covered continually by 54 full time individual analysts. Some are covered by just one investment house . Without stock market commentary you'd spend a lot of wasted time.  Anyone can spot a good business. Can you spot a good investment?  Very different things. 

Is it the way people screen the stocks to target? Well, no wonder, they have missed a lot of opportunities.

People with common sense in investing will never do that to screen the stocks. Have you heard about stock screeners, social Media before start investing your own valuable time ??

Of course, investing in Mega cap large cap blue chip stocks such as AMAZON, AAPL, FB, MSFT, Alphabet, NVIDIA, AMD, etc will carry very little risk. But do not you already have these stocks as part of your Mutual/Index fund ? So why do you need to waste time to form the same ETF consist of these stocks?. If you have not got one why not just pay people to do that for you for a very small fee ?

I trade in the stocks like this but only for swing purposes when I see the dip, and that dip due to non-fundamental issue. I will sell it back when they reach all time high. But to track their lifetime performance I already have Mutual/Index fund for this.

adindas

underground99 said:

What was the share price of Enron or Worldcom in 1999 or 2000? And then by 2003? Was the fact they had been on the stock market for 10 years not enough evidence that the price in 2000 was fair?  I guess you were not an investor learning the markets on a free trading app in 2000.

Comparing Enron with a company like Tesla which grow like an Octopus maintaining control of the business ecosystem show severe lack of understanding. From  previous posts people just know that TESLA is just about an EV company, with recent uptake of  Bitcoin. But if it is your view, I suggest you spend time to study their business model, where the revenue come from.

Also was Enron, Lehman Brothers are not a good company before getting trouble? Could people not see the serial of trouble and had sufficient time to pull out before it was too late?? If so the people like that should never be getting involved investing in individual stock in the first instance. These people should stick to Index/Mutual funds and/or Bonds, saving accounts.

There are enough mature well established companies have destiny like that. So, it is even more evidence that focusing the current financial state alone is not an accurate prediction of the future performance, especially if you do not take the growths in revenue into account.

It is a simple logic, growth companies will focus more on growing business and therefore reinvesting that profit.

The Executives in energy companies like Enron are full with people with short term interest. Just have a look on their executive pays, bonuses, etc. They got incentive to maximise the short-term performance to earn bonuses. If the company collapse in the future they are already out the system and enjoy their retirement. You find many of these short of companies in Oil, traditional Banking sectors. Just th opposite with tech companies where many of  the CEO are the founders, the owners, are the majority shareholders in the companies, so they will keep doing their best to save their own companies.

Also, in the investing world some institutions, retail investor wants to see a price of specific stock to fall because they have “short position” so their perosnal interest to scare people to sell their stocks they already have and/or stop people buying stock like this. But History has shown those who bets against Tesla got squeezed and lost money the most.

I know some people here feel bitter because they have missed the boat try to impose their own beliefs to other people. But demonising people who disagree with them calling them idiots is not the way to go.

In their opinion the people who have position in compnay like Tesla are a bunch of idiots. But this idiot has made made a few hundred percents in just a few months just from Tesla alone. I do not lose money in swing trading even during this recent market correction, using the method I mention in my previous posts.

I have posted my other stocks in the previous posts have a look of it. What about you then?? Rely on index/mutual funds. Well I also have it. Having both of them will allow you to take advantage of both worlds.

I am not here to convince people we do our own way. Let keep this thread alive.