Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

benbay001 said:

Steve182 said:

benbay001 said:

If you bought Tesla today, the company is worth $570 billion.
If you were expecting a 20% return per year for the next 10 years (i think thats fair, considering the risk youre taking on) then Tesla would need to be worth $3.5 trillion in 2031.
Lets assume Tesla then trades at a PE of 20x and then have profit margins of 14% which is double what the car industry historically have, Tesla would need $1.2 trillion in Revenue.
$1.2 trillion is 6x greater than Volkswagens revenue from 2019. 
And i think ive been generous to Tesla here

• Their market cap has recently taken a big tumble, it was previously alot higher. 
• Lets face it, most people holding Tesla are probably expecting gains much higher than 20% per year.

A big part of the appeal of buying a Tesla is the uniqueness and the fashion statement. That appeal wont exist if Tesla are selling enough cars to have a 40% market share and therefore i hypothesise that they will simply never be able to grow that big. Plus, literally every manufacturer is chucking billions at developing next generation EVs.

I'm not convinced that those "in the know" are investing in Tesla because of their cars.

Youre right, i didnt account for the bitcoin growth.

It is a fundamental mistake if you think that Tesla is just about an EV makers.

Similarly, with bitcoin. Keep in mind Bitcoin is just new and people have been investing in Tesla before they start doing bitcoin.

I suggest you study their business model and business ecosystem.

Many analysts have made that mistake in the past comparing Tesla with traditional car makers doing an EV such as Ford Motors, GE, VW, etc. They put their price target of $200 (before 1 for 5 split) so it equates to $40 with the current stock price. With the recent TSLA price they are ashamed that their price prediction is so wrong.

But they later acknowledged that mistake and some of them have amended their price target.

Alexland

adindas said:

Many analysts have made that mistake in the past comparing Tesla with traditional car makers doing an EV such as Ford Motors, GE, VW, etc. They put their price target of $200 (before 1 for 5 split) so it equates to $80 with the current share. With the recent TSLA price they are ashamed that their price prediction is so wrong.

With a share like Tesla how is an analyst really supposed to calculate how crazy high people will keep pushing it? I don't know why Tesla bothers beating metal into cars (seems very old fashioned to me) when the future is clearly teleportation. There must be a thematic tracker for companies doing that maybe IGO2.

snooloui

Price targets are mostly meaningless as is most stock market commentary. If they knew what was going to happen they'd be billionaires and not salaried employees.

adindas

Alexland said:

With a share like Tesla how is an analyst really supposed to calculate how crazy high people will keep pushing it?

They do not calculate based on how crazy high people will keep pushing it.

Alexland said:

I don't know why Tesla bothers beating metal into cars (seems very old fashioned to me) when the future is clearly teleportation. There must be a thematic tracker for companies doing that maybe IGO2.

I think you watch science fiction or play video game too much.

We probably need more magicians such as the Mask Magician (Val Valentino) than scientists, engineers.

adindas

snooloui said:

Price targets are mostly meaningless as is most stock market commentary. If they knew what was going to happen they'd be billionaires and not salaried employees.

It is a prediction, forecast so It is not 100% accurate. People always say "past performance is not a guarantee of future performance”, the market/stock price could go up and down at any time irrespectively of what the wall street analysts have been saying.

But it is not the same with saying them meaningless.

Bobziz

As observed by someone else on a another forum, didn't Enron's share price do what Tesla's did yesterday just before the dot com bubble burst....

csgohan4

seems the market correction is mostly over and other investors taking advantage of the low prices, SMT, INRG etc recovering a bit

Steve182

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

Steve182 said:

benbay001 said:

If you bought Tesla today, the company is worth $570 billion.
If you were expecting a 20% return per year for the next 10 years (i think thats fair, considering the risk youre taking on) then Tesla would need to be worth $3.5 trillion in 2031.
Lets assume Tesla then trades at a PE of 20x and then have profit margins of 14% which is double what the car industry historically have, Tesla would need $1.2 trillion in Revenue.
$1.2 trillion is 6x greater than Volkswagens revenue from 2019. 
And i think ive been generous to Tesla here

• Their market cap has recently taken a big tumble, it was previously alot higher. 
• Lets face it, most people holding Tesla are probably expecting gains much higher than 20% per year.

A big part of the appeal of buying a Tesla is the uniqueness and the fashion statement. That appeal wont exist if Tesla are selling enough cars to have a 40% market share and therefore i hypothesise that they will simply never be able to grow that big. Plus, literally every manufacturer is chucking billions at developing next generation EVs.

I'm not convinced that those "in the know" are investing in Tesla because of their cars.

Youre right, i didnt account for the bitcoin growth.

It is a fundamental mistake if you think that Tesla is just about an EV makers.

Similarly, with bitcoin. Keep in mind Bitcoin is just new and people have been investing in Tesla before they start doing bitcoin.

I suggest you study their business model and business ecosystem.

Many analysts have made that mistake in the past comparing Tesla with traditional car makers doing an EV such as Ford Motors, GE, VW, etc. They put their price target of $200 (before 1 for 5 split) so it equates to $80 with the current share. With the recent TSLA price they are ashamed that their price prediction is so wrong.

But they later acknowledged that mistake and some of them have amended their price target.

Thank-you for explaining my earlier point about people not investing in Tesla (mainly) because of their cars. I deliberately made my comment vague to see who would respond with replies about Bitcoin and who would explain the actual reason why informed people invest. 

benbay001

I dont need to investigate Tesla further to know its overpriced.
Whatever you buy Tesla for, be it a taxi company, and charging company, a car company or a bitcoin holding company, i can guarantee its overpriced.
If something appears at first glance to be wildly overpriced then simply move on.
As i have said before, i think Tesla is a wonderful company and i really hope they succeed, but likewise id hate to be in a world where 40% of cars are Teslas and cannot see that happening anyway.
If you can provide vague numbers for where you think Tesla will get to in terms of sales and profit over the next 5-10 years then go ahead, but ive never actually seen a Tesla bull show any figurework to justify the price.

adindas

benbay001 said:

I dont need to investigate Tesla further to know its overpriced.
Whatever you buy Tesla for, be it a taxi company, and charging company, a car company or a bitcoin holding company, i can guarantee its overpriced.
If something appears at first glance to be wildly overpriced then simply move on.
As i have said before, i think Tesla is a wonderful company and i really hope they succeed, but likewise id hate to be in a world where 40% of cars are Teslas and cannot see that happening anyway.
If you can provide vague numbers for where you think Tesla will get to in terms of sales and profit over the next 5-10 years then go ahead, but ive never actually seen a Tesla bull show any figurework to justify the price.

Well, your personal opinion you are entitled to. The same thing with those people who put their money into saving accounts paying less than 1%. It is their own money they are investing, so nothing wrong with it. But I myself allocate some money to target a growth company when they were still in infancies before not many the hedge fund managers pay attention to them. Once they get involved, all you need to do is to sit down nicely and let them ride/push the price up. Also, no one duty here to convince other people. Due your own DDs, make your own decision you are happy with.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/holders?p=TSLA

But these top hedge fund managers managing fund  in Vanguard Group, Inc, Blackrock Inc, Baillie Gifford and Company, JP Morgan Chase etc will definitely disagree with you as they have invested millions of dollars in TSLA..