Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Filo25

ProDave said:

I would say the cat has finished bouncing, about yesterday.

The markets have finally woken up to the fact Q2 GDP is going to be a LOT worse than the already bad Q1 GDP.

Is this the start of the REAL crash?

Given most of the value of companies value should be in the discounted value of future earnings I would view any big Q2 selloff on current quarter earnings as a good buying opportunity for many companies.

Easy to see why growth companies with strong enough balance sheets are doing pretty well in this, the likely discount rate for future earnings is even lower than it looked to be before the crisis.

BananaRepublic

port_of_spain said:

BananaRepublic said:

Regarding employment law, you might be surprised at how little we have.

...

It was originally one year of employment before you accrued any real rights but in 2012 it was increased to 2 years. What does surprise me is that the Labour party haven't promised to revert it back to one year.

You are badly informed. In their last general election manifesto, they were promising to give employees real rights from day 1 of employment.

You are correct, thanks.

BananaRepublic

MinuteNoodles said:

Bravepants said:

I often wonder what's on earth is it with Musk's self-destructive leanings.

You do know he's a junkie? Yes, that's right Elon does drugs and even did a video interview smoking a spliff. And as with all drug addicts they tend to have a self destructive bent to them and an inability to know when to keep their mouths shut. His recent no doubt drug fuelled twitter rant cost investors $14Bn.

Not so. According to Ashlee Vance's biography of Musk (on which Musk closely cooperated with the author), he is as “straight-laced” as they come and only occasionally drinks. He’s not known to dabble in mind-altering substances. The spliff incident you refer to was a one off recorded event, and rather ill advised. You don't create a string of highly successful companies (PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla and others) when addicted to drugs.

BananaRepublic

port_of_spain said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

Yet this self destructive, loudmouthed junkie is significantly more successful and better off than you are. Funny that.

So perhaps there's something very wrong with how success and wealth is doled out? That is what you were implying, right?

It isn't doled out. He works incredibly hard. He is by all accounts very clever. He employs some of the best people around. And he uses agile managment techniques which allow SpaceX for example to develop highly reliable satellite launchers far more quickly and cheaply than the competition such as Boeing. His success is fully deserved. Yes he is known to rant, and he can be a bully, witness his libelling the British caver.

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

port_of_spain said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

Yet this self destructive, loudmouthed junkie is significantly more successful and better off than you are. Funny that.

So perhaps there's something very wrong with how success and wealth is doled out? That is what you were implying, right?

It isn't doled out. He works incredibly hard. He is by all accounts very clever. He employs some of the best people around. And he uses agile managment techniques which allow SpaceX for example to develop highly reliable satellite launchers far more quickly and cheaply than the competition such as Boeing. His success is fully deserved. Yes he is known to rant, and he can be a bully, witness his libelling the British caver.

Creative people are best described as eccentric. Many wouldn't consider creating a self sustaining city on Mars a priority. At a time when the US has considerable social divisions and inequalities. Biden won't be as accomodating as Trump. 

themanfromamarillo

BananaRepublic said:

MinuteNoodles said:

Bravepants said:

I often wonder what's on earth is it with Musk's self-destructive leanings.

You do know he's a junkie? Yes, that's right Elon does drugs and even did a video interview smoking a spliff. And as with all drug addicts they tend to have a self destructive bent to them and an inability to know when to keep their mouths shut. His recent no doubt drug fuelled twitter rant cost investors $14Bn.

Not so. According to Ashlee Vance's biography of Musk (on which Musk closely cooperated with the author), he is as “straight-laced” as they come and only occasionally drinks. He’s not known to dabble in mind-altering substances. The spliff incident you refer to was a one off recorded event, and rather ill advised. You don't create a string of highly successful companies (PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla and others) when addicted to drugs.

I agree it's silly to claim Musk has any kind of drug problem based on one incident on a podcast. There is no evidence that he has any kind of drug habit.

He does however have a habit of saying things that don't fit well with being a company CEO. Storming off in the huff during a call with bondholders, casually tweeting about taking the company private and then after being wrapped on the nuckles by the SEC for that going out and commenting on the company's share price. Markets trade on information about publicly listed companies. Hence being the CEO of such a company doesn't mesh well with randomly opining on the share price on twitter. If he carries on like he's been doing he might end up with a harsher punishment from the SEC

waveydavey48

Thrugelmir said:

Creative people are best described as eccentric. 

Indeed. The original Nikola Tesla after whom Musk named his company was a genius, but as nutty as a fruitcake..

port_of_spain

BananaRepublic said:

port_of_spain said:

So perhaps there's something very wrong with how success and wealth is doled out?

It isn't doled out. ...............

Good grief, I just happened to use  phrase "doled out", I wasn't implying anything specifically by it

However, since you mentioned some ideas about how success and wealth are "doled out", or "distributed" if you prefer, I'll reply briefly.

I think your ideas could be fairly summarized as:

- hard work and skill

That is not wrong, but it's very incomplete. I would add:

- luck, especially the "ovarian lottery"

- line of work (e.g. the laziest, least competent CEOs (not Musk) are paid vastly more than the most hard-working and skilled care workers)

I'd also add that the distribution of wealth is, regardless of whether the "right" people are doing better, too unequal, because:

- many of the poorest (especially globally, and almost every country is part of the global economy nowadays) are left without necessities

- very great wealth is used to corrupt politics (in both democratic and non-democratic countries)

kinger101

waveydavey48 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Creative people are best described as eccentric. 

Indeed. The original Nikola Tesla after whom Musk named his company was a genius, but as nutty as a fruitcake..

For your information, it is believed Tesla at the very least suffered from OCD.  Please don't use terms like "nutty as a fruitcake" to stigmatize mental illness.

BananaRepublic

port_of_spain said:

BananaRepublic said:

port_of_spain said:

So perhaps there's something very wrong with how success and wealth is doled out?

It isn't doled out. ...............

Good grief, I just happened to use  phrase "doled out", I wasn't implying anything specifically by it

However, since you mentioned some ideas about how success and wealth are "doled out", or "distributed" if you prefer, I'll reply briefly.

I think your ideas could be fairly summarized as:

- hard work and skill

That is not wrong, but it's very incomplete. I would add:

- luck, especially the "ovarian lottery"

- line of work (e.g. the laziest, least competent CEOs (not Musk) are paid vastly more than the most hard-working and skilled care workers)

I'd also add that the distribution of wealth is, regardless of whether the "right" people are doing better, too unequal, because:

- many of the poorest (especially globally, and almost every country is part of the global economy nowadays) are left without necessities

- very great wealth is used to corrupt politics (in both democratic and non-democratic countries)

My response was in the context of remarks about Musk, not success and wealth in general, you quoted me somewhat out of context.

In a more general context (since you brought it up) those who succeed tend to be the more assertive and confident males (most are indeed male) and most tend to come from well to do backgrounds, a private education is far more common than expected by chance. They are the sort who overestimate their own abilities relative to others. Those who rise up through the ranks in big companies don't need to be so creative, sharp elbows do help, Fred Goodwin is a good example. Those who create a small company that does well, such as Musk, or Dyson, are perhaps different, such people need to be more creative, and to inspire staff. Many if not most will be risk takers, witness Goodwin. Musk was at one time sleeping in a friends house as he was putting his money into his company. He took a huge risk. He is obsessive, as are many such people eg Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos. Many are narcissists. If you've never met a narcissist, you are very lucky. Many are sociopaths (which share some traits with narcissists including a lack of empathy ie they don't give a hoot about other people).

Of course luck is very important. The luck of being born to the 'right' parents is probably key.

Of course wealth can corrupt politics. It also goes hand in hand with politics, like it or not a country needs a healthy economy.