Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Thrugelmir

HHarry said:

ProDave said:

I would say the cat has finished bouncing, about yesterday.

The markets have finally woken up to the fact Q2 GDP is going to be a LOT worse than the already bad Q1 GDP.

Is this the start of the REAL crash?

But Q1 wasn’t as bad as predicted - a 2% drop rather than 2.6%.
And there can’t be any surprise that Q2 is going to be horrendous.

Trying to stay positive!

Then there's Q3 to come. 

BananaRepublic

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

ProDave said:

I would say the cat has finished bouncing, about yesterday.

The markets have finally woken up to the fact Q2 GDP is going to be a LOT worse than the already bad Q1 GDP.

Is this the start of the REAL crash?

A few of us have said this is more serious than the 2008 crash, and this is one of those times when I hope I am wrong. 

Very different times. This time it's going to impact many directly not the few. 

The last crash hit a lot of people, with unemployment skyrocketing, and property values falling significantly. Countless small businesses failed because they were unable to get business loans as credit dried up. Not only that, wages remained low and only recently caught up with pre-crash levels. The problem here is that the government are going to destroy large segments of the economy such as the sports and leisure industry. My local brewery can survive maybe a month more before going down. Almost half a million people work in pubs and bars, which are all closed.

NedS

No doubt the short term impact is/will be horrendous, with people losing their jobs, businesses, and who knows what else but people do generally recover from such events. But the long term effects are probably even more scary. We've only just (well, almost) exited austerity and now face the threat of stagnant wage growth, higher taxes and reduced spending for maybe a whole generation to pay for this. It's hard to comprehend the amount of debt the government is racking up and the kind of sacrifices needed to repay it.

blue_max_3

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Thrugelmir

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

blue_max_3

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

BananaRepublic

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

The US has a far more fluid job market. Outside of the unionised sectors , employment law doesn't exist as we know it. 

newatc

ColdIron said:

I think HL's cut off time is 08:00 AM so you have missed that. You should get the price at 09:00 PM tomorrow

The cut off time is 8.00 am to guarantee the deal at next valuation time (usually 12.00) but they will try to get anything before 9.00 am processed.

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

The US has a far more fluid job market. Outside of the unionised sectors , employment law doesn't exist as we know it. 

On my first day in a US job, the HR director told me we had a free will relationship.  They could get rid of me at any time and for any reason, and likewise, I could just walk away any time I wanted.  I wasn't sure it was 100% true (I did work a notice period) but it's hardly the sort or talk that is likely to motivate someone on day 1.