Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

bowlhead99

kinger101 said: 

On my first day in a US job, the HR director told me we had a free will relationship.  They could get rid of me at any time and for any reason, and likewise, I could just walk away any time I wanted.  I wasn't sure it was 100% true (I did work a notice period) but it's hardly the sort or talk that is likely to motivate someone on day 1.

Very likely to be true - nearly all states have 'at will' employment as standard - you're working for them at your own free will, and they are employing you at their will, and if either side doesn't want to continue, you stop being employed. There can be exceptions for wrongful termination for some types of discrimination or retaliation - but without evidence of that, the employer can just say, "yeah, they weren't working out". There is basically no protection for the employees as standard and a contract with an actual notice period is something that might happen at senior executive level but not for the other 95%. 

In at-will states there is generally a 'customary' two weeks notice period, which may be in the contract, whereby if you don't give them two weeks notice when you decide to walk away, you won't be eligible for re-hire. Which many employees won't care about if they already have a job lined up, because they won't ever intend to be re-hired there. The only reason to do it is because other employers when looking at your CV may ask 'would you be eligible for re-hire' as a precaution of hiring someone who jumps ship on a complete whim without telling them.  Our firm has people on 3 months notice or more in the UK and Europe, but only 2 weeks in the US in an equivalent role - or zero if they choose to walk off and simply not give the notice - which is not a length of time in which you could recruit and hand over the reins to a replacement. So it's difficult for stability of the business but fortunately we give UK-style annual leave entitlement which helps with retention vs US rivals.

It is a different mindset over there, where if you told hiring managers you wanted to put a mid-level employee on a 3 month contract, they would say: are you crazy, if someone wants to go and work for a competitor and doesn't like you any more, you want them to stick around and look after your work product and customer and supplier relationships and do their very best for you?

So, the US job market will see changes in employment levels very rapidly when business sentiment changes, and companies can be pretty flexible to do what they want to control costs. It feeds into levels of company valuations and M&A activity too - large corporations find the US much more fluid compared to somewhere like France where you might take over a business and then realise you have a big workforce of employees who have these things called 'rights' which you can't just overrule and get rid of them.

kinger101

^^
I must say, there are occasions here when I'd have liked to get rid of someone in two weeks.  One disruptive or under-performing employee can drain quite a bit out of a team.

Sailtheworld

I'm on my 6th consecutive week of gains having modified precisely nothing in 2020. Surely the cat should have been gently decomposing by now?

BananaRepublic

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

The US has a far more fluid job market. Outside of the unionised sectors , employment law doesn't exist as we know it. 

I'm not arguing with your assertion that people will soon be rehired, we are in agreement. It's the future impact of the virus on the economy that concerns me.

Regarding employment law, you might be surprised at how little we have. In the first few years of a 'permanent' job in the UK, the employee has pretty much zero rights. They can be dismissed at any time without a reason. About four years ago I was bullied by a colleague who regularly verbally abused me while I was talking to other people. My mistake was to ask her not to sing in the office, a habit that drove everyone up the wall, but the others were frightened of her. I had been there 18 months and I was told to resign, or be sacked. (The director who in effect sacked me left a few months later, which I believe was due to the management finding out what was really going on. But that's a side point.)

Once you have done two years, your employer cannot dismiss you without following due process. They can dismiss you on the spot for gross misconduct (which must be proven), and dismiss you for misconduct after a final written warning.

IMO this gives bad and incompetent employers carte blanche to mistreat staff. In practice most people are decent and would not mistreat staff, but many are not.

coyrls

Plus Wall Street loves lay offs, if a company is doing badly and they lay off a chunk of people, the share price generally rises.

blue_max_3

coyrls said:

Plus Wall Street loves lay offs, if a company is doing badly and they lay off a chunk of people, the share price generally rises.

You would hope that employing a worker generates income for the company - as that's the whole point!
Less workers means less profit being generated. Unless there was a lot of waste and inefficiency of course.

Bravepants

blue_max_3 said:

coyrls said:

Plus Wall Street loves lay offs, if a company is doing badly and they lay off a chunk of people, the share price generally rises.

You would hope that employing a worker generates income for the company - as that's the whole point!
Less workers means less profit being generated. Unless there was a lot of waste and inefficiency of course.

Fewer workers means greater profit when there is less demand for the company's product(s). It is demand and supply that drives the economy and affects economic decisions such as the prices of goods and services, and how many people to employ. Fewer things/services sold equals lower income, and so less money spent on wages equals greater profit, or at least the liquid cash to pay rent and equipment leases.

Thrugelmir

Bravepants said:

blue_max_3 said:

coyrls said:

Plus Wall Street loves lay offs, if a company is doing badly and they lay off a chunk of people, the share price generally rises.

You would hope that employing a worker generates income for the company - as that's the whole point!
Less workers means less profit being generated. Unless there was a lot of waste and inefficiency of course.

Fewer workers means greater profit when there is less demand for the company's product(s). 

More often or not it's to reduce the cost base to stop the company falling into loss. Bottom line profit per employee head isn't as great you'd expect in many industries. 

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

The US has a far more fluid job market. Outside of the unionised sectors , employment law doesn't exist as we know it. 

Regarding employment law, you might be surprised at how little we have. 

Changed a lot of the years. My first experience of US culture in the UK was decades ago. When contracts were terminated with dealt with by providing the individual with an extremely large cheque (above statutory limits), the keys to the company car and their P45. Then walking them to the front door of the building. 

LHW99

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

Probably on less money in more precarious circumstances. 

That is the nature of crashes. It took ages for wages to recover after the last crash.

Thrugelmir said:

blue_max_3 said:

36 million people out of work in America. That's gonna weigh heavily on the markets. That's like a dead weight around the ankles of the economy.

Many will soon be rehired. Such is the hire and fire nature of employment over the pond. 

They will be. But the virus will continue to make an impact for a long while. And the amount of debt we are incurring is big, really really big as Trump might say. The last crisis had so called austerity to pay it off. One or two people weren't happy about that.

The US has a far more fluid job market. Outside of the unionised sectors , employment law doesn't exist as we know it. 

Regarding employment law, you might be surprised at how little we have. 

Changed a lot of the years. My first experience of US culture in the UK was decades ago. When contracts were terminated with dealt with by providing the individual with an extremely large cheque (above statutory limits), the keys to the company car and their P45. Then walking them to the front door of the building. 

In certain cases not even allowing them to clear their desk.