Tesla share price

Malthusian

Grabs39 said:

There’s an interesting idea (I read in a book about cycling and greener transport by Peter Walker), that once cars can drive themselves, and they can be summoned easily then people will stop owning their own cars.  Ownership will be via car clubs or hailed in an Uber-style app, you get in, it takes you where you need to go and you get out.  The car then picks up the next person.  This would negate the need for most people to own their own car, and the idea of having a hugely expensive asset, parked up for 95% of the time either at home or work doing nothing will seem a little silly.  This would massively reduce the number of cars out there (and in production) as one car could serve twenty families, taking 19 cars off the road.

Of course it may never happen, but the technology is there, it’s a cultural and legal change that would be needed.  Who knows in 20 years?  But Tesla’s car technology could be a double edged sword.

The technology is nowhere near at the moment. We have only just got to the point where self-driving cars can drive themselves round an artificial track while killing only a few humans. Coping with the chaos of an urban environment is a long way off.

A lot of people in urban areas already do without a car for the most part. If you only need to drive once a week it is easy for a taxi to be more efficient than car ownership, even with human drivers. The problem is with the few times a year you need to drive outside the taxi service area, given that taking a taxi somewhere else in the country costs hundreds of pounds. I'm not convinced it will be dramatically cheaper if the driver is eliminated. The main cost is not being driven there but paying for the car to be driven back empty, or to sit idle waiting for you.

Let's say I take a self-driving taxi to a cross country race in Devon. I'm not going to put up with waiting an hour for another self-driving taxi to drive out from an urban centre to pick me up when I've finished (nobody cares if new technology is super amazing and efficient if it makes your life worse) so it will have to wait. That's several hours of lost business which I'll have to pay for, even without a human driver twiddling his thumbs. Multiply that a few times and I may as well buy my own self-driving car, from Tesla or whoever. Those are my own circumstances but almost everyone's life gives them a reason to go somewhere that can't be accessed via public transport several times a year.

The fact that cars sit idle 95% of the time is not a big deal. My oven sits idle 99% of the time, it doesn't mean I'm being inefficient by not using Deliveroo to buy food from someone whose oven is on constantly. The oven and the car have option value even when they're not in use. Most matter on the planet is inactive most of the time, it's not a sin against nature for something to not be in constant use.

port_of_spain

Malthusian said:

We have only just got to the point where self-driving cars can drive themselves round an artificial track while killing only a few humans.

So long as it doesn't kill 99.5% of humans, surely that's an acceptable price to pay for economic progress — at least, according to fans of "herd immunity". It removes the weaker members of the herd, who would probably have died of something else soon anyway

BananaRepublic

Self driving cars sound good. However my modern car can’t even cope with the emergency braking system, it brakes spontaneously and unexpectedly fairly regularly. And we expect a car with huge numbers of sensors to perform reliably? It will undoubtedly appear, but at present there are huge problems to solve namely how to error correct. 

As regards Musk being a liability, it’s probably typical for a senior person. Steve Jobs was said to be nasty to staff. Bill Gates had a reputation for poor personal hygiene and bad interpersonal skills. I heard a story about Richard Branson I cannot repeat. It’s not big time nasty, but it involves unprofessional conduct (allegedly, I cannot prove it). Harvey Weinstein. Phillip Green. (I recently met an ex employee of Green’s, and she confirmed the stories about him, not a nice man.) And so on. These big personalities probably almost always have baggage. 

macman

In terms of self-driving technology, Tesla doesn't seem to have any real lead. You can buy a vehicle that steers, brakes, accelerates and parks itself , to a greater or lesser degree, from most of the major manufacturers now. Is their battery tech really any way ahead of their rivals either? Musk is a good salesman, just like Steve Jobs was, but sooner or later I think we are going to see the emperor's new clothes revealed for what they are.
The main restrictions to self-driving cars are the legal framework, the sensor infrastructure and the cultural adjustments needed-none of which are in the gift of any single manufacturer.

Username999

Self-driving technology:
Many are in this space including Google (WayMo), Intel, most major car manufacturers, a bunch of Chinese and many small startups. The hardwear/software is not that difficult (relatively speaking), the holy grail is Data. Tesla cars have been gathering and storing data in the 'cloud' for years and is the undoubted leader by a LONG way. Tesla has the most advanced Chip in their cars.
To turn on self driving in a Tesla is simply a soft wear upgrade, no hard wear change/modification needed.

Batteries: 
Tie up with Panasonic coming to an end. Tesla recently bought Maxwell. Possible solid state battery coming. One million mile battery life, 4,000 charge cycles. Reduced cost/weight.

Musk is a good salesman and a great innovator, recently Larry Ellison joined the board, he too is a great salesman/innovator.  
Musk wants other car manufactures to succeed, the market is big enough for many players. Their data can/will be sold to competitors (Researchers at McKinsey and Co estimate that the market for vehicle-gathered data will be worth $750 billion a year by 2030).
Musk has given permission for Tesla's Patents to be used by others for free.

Tesla's other major products include Solar and Giga-Factories.  
IMHO, DYOR.



The Insane Value of Tesla’s Data (Something Almost No One Mentions)
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/01/insane-value-teslas-data-something-almost-no-one-mentions/


Tesla, the data company
https://www.cio.com/article/3433931/tesla-the-data-company.html

Username999

Nice rise after hours and a good Q1 earnings report.
$800 up to $871.

Earnings letter: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795

Username999

Tesla applies to become UK electricity provider
https://news.sky.com/story/tesla-applies-to-become-uk-electricity-provider-11982381

Thrugelmir

No comment on Musk's tweet? 
Share price $701. Ouch!

Username999

What's to comment on, that's Elon Musk!
Probably quite a few directors have said similar, Nick Train?
The Tweet is mentioned in the link.

DiggerUK

Much bemusement has been generated by Elon's missive. Don't read too much that is  deeply  meaningful from his peccadillo with a quill.

There should be no puzzle as to why Gerald Ratner said what he said, there should be no puzzle as to why Clive Sinclair believed in the Sinclair C5, or why Wallace had the wool pulled over his eyes by a chicken disguised as a penguin.

Just get used to the idea that cult figures can have a brain fart as easily as any of us..._