Squeaky bum time!

[Deleted User]

Not sure printing money will help much. That’s treating the symptoms 

Thrugelmir

Deleted_User said:

Not sure printing money will help much. That’s treating the symptoms 

The wider debt issue was never addressed after the GFC. 

quirkydeptless

I have to say, with all the threads spawning about this crisis, that I love the title of this one the most

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZgD89VYkVc

DairyQueen

Decided on Monday that my blood pressure would benefit from not checking my portfolio for the foreseeable. No intention of buying or selling until the market has calmed and, even then, just to rebalance, so why be an anguished spectator?

On the plus side... 

Plenty of time now to take stock and ponder on the really important things in life. Apparently loo rolls head the list for a significant minority of the population (who would have thought?) but it's a great opportunity to assess attitude to risk, develop strategy and plan future rebalancing.

Either this is just another pot-hole on the investment road or we will all be dead. I know which my money is on.

[Deleted User]

DairyQueen said:

Decided on Monday that my blood pressure would benefit from not checking my portfolio for the foreseeable. No intention of buying or selling until the market has calmed and, even then, just to rebalance, so why be an anguished spectator?

On the plus side... 

Plenty of time now to take stock and ponder on the really important things in life. Apparently loo rolls head the list for a significant minority of the population (who would have thought?) but it's a great opportunity to assess attitude to risk, develop strategy and plan future rebalancing.

Either this is just another pot-hole on the investment road or we will all be dead. I know which my money is on.

Great little comment! I agree. Actually, there are a lot of pluses on days like Monday:
1. I can tell my sons that they're getting a 50% off sale in financial instruments compared to a month ago. Who doesn't want a bargain?
2. I'm 90% invested. Can book large losses in taxable accounts with immediate rebuys of something close enough that my asset allocation isn't affected. Cushioning the eventual pain I expect f
3. Having been largely patient as markets swung through the past few weeks, I am betting that there is more bloodbath in the markets to come and waiting to invest the remaining cash in 3 months.
4.  The Canadian pref market is getting that Oct-Dec 2008 feel, spreads blowing out, completely illiquid, and some investors clearly desperate either to raise cash or stop the pain. The yield had passed 8%. And it’s from the “can’t be allowed to fail” cornerstones of the economy. I bought some. It will go down before it goes up, but go up it will. 

5. Spring is in the air

OldMusicGuy

DairyQueen said:

Decided on Monday that my blood pressure would benefit from not checking my portfolio for the foreseeable. No intention of buying or selling until the market has calmed and, even then, just to rebalance, so why be an anguished spectator?
........
Either this is just another pot-hole on the investment road or we will all be dead. I know which my money is on.

You and I have been posting about retirement planning for a similar period and have some similar approaches. This has been an interesting test for me, because my portfolio was highly cautious and defensive to avoid sequence of returns risk, just like this event would have caused. My strategy appears to have worked, because as of this morning my portfolio is down around 12% compared to market drops that seem to be in excess of 30%. I also have plenty of cash in my SIPP so I don't need to sell any investments.

I've also been pleased that I have not checked my portfolio much and am not panicking. I had a strategy and it appears to be working for me and that is allowing me to stay calm, even though my paper losses are pretty big in absolute terms. We don't know what will happen in the future but I am certain there will be some form of recovery. If there isn't, then like you say we will not care about checking portfolios because we really will be in dire straits all round. 

I don't come on here much because the level of hysteria and ill-informed doom-mongering posts seems to have reached record levels. I don't find that helpful.   

Albermarle

We don't know what will happen in the future but I am certain there will be some form of recovery.

I am sure there will but I am not at all convinced it will be anything significant this year . As you say 'sitting on your hands ' seems a good a strategy as any .

crv1963

Albermarle said:

We don't know what will happen in the future but I am certain there will be some form of recovery.

I am sure there will but I am not at all convinced it will be anything significant this year . As you say 'sitting on your hands ' seems a good a strategy as any .

Although my personal pension is DB we have not deviated from the plans for Mrs CRV DC pots, we accept that they have fallen and hope they recover over the next two years when she hits 55, if not we also accept that at that point we either accept a lower income in retirement or work a bit longer. My own plans to NHS retire and return part time have now changed (yet again) because of the current situation changed to retiring then returning full time+ until not needed or the situation nationally returns to some sort of normality.

Other colleagues who have retired and returned and been forced to work part time are increasing their hours simply so we can continue to provide a service. One of these has been for the last 3 years been saving into a SIPP and is not panicking about the fall in the markets either "well I don't see why I should worry, we just need to do what we have too". 

On a completely different note I am enjoying a lovely sunny morning and plan spending some time talking to my seedlings in the greenhouse! 

m_c_s

Unemployment data will start to be released over the coming weeks. US data will certain drive markets and next week some provisional data will show how well companies are initially coping with the impacts from the virus. Numbers from some of the individual states are looking very worrying but we will have to wait for official figures to fully understand the likely depth of the recession in the US.
UK data will be published in April but I suspect May's data may give a better understanding of where the UK economy is heading over the next two or three quarters.  

[Deleted User]

Based on a medium size multinational...
Right now our clients are suspending major construction projects in N America. Redundancies will happen. There will be losses, except in certain very niche companies. 

Efforts ongoing to realign the business to focus on Covid 19 response. 

Next step - stimulus and flow of new money once the projects are restarted, profits will recover, possibly by Q4. 

In China and Singapore we are restarting project now. 

To me, the key question is if western governments can introduce coordinated response based on the Chinese model. 

And if they can, and if the secondary financial system effects and major bankruptcies are prevented, then the markets will recover by the end of the year.