Squeaky bum time!

Thrugelmir

Albermarle said:

Bravepants said:

As I understand it the Chinese need to keep working at staving off the second wave of infections.

The defining parameter will be how well the hospitals are  coping , especially the intensive care capacity. 

As far as our local hospital is concerned. Plenty of bed capacity generally with non essential surgery cancelled. Staffing is more of an issue, as those with symptoms are required to self isolate for 14 days.  A&E interestingly has quietened down. Seems as if the current crisis has changed behaviour and reduced the need for so many people to use it's facilities. 

[Deleted User]

Today China had 13 new cases, only one transmitted locally. That’s down from thousands and thousands in February. 

We are only in March. Sure seems like there is a path to quick elimination through drastic measures over a short period of time. Would it not be better than having this drag forever through half-measures? 

Now, China could be lying. They sure did early on. I think the leadership was taught a lesson and we have seen accurate info from China since. 

China also has the means of making people follow orders which we don’t. Still, most people are now on board with implementing drastic action. The few that don’t have to be forced to comply. 

Same with the countries. The virus could be reimported from places where the drastic measures have not been executed. Such countries have to be isolated; there is a lot of world wide isolation now anyway. 

I think all of this is happening anyway, step by step, as people are getting more and more scared. 

Economically a short and sharp recession resulting from the shut down is a lot better than having a slightly milder one drag for ever. Bankruptcies can be delayed if it’s a couple of months but losing lots of money for a year isn’t sustainable. 

And if we let this drag, the novelty will ware off and people will get tired

Why does it have to be a year? What am I missing? 

[Deleted User]

Bill Ackman is pleading to shut down the country for 30 days. I think that’s what the market wants. Except essentials like hospitals and food

Thrugelmir

Deleted_User said:

Why does it have to be a year? What am I missing? 

Vaccine availability. The whole process takes time. 
Interestingly appears the UK is close to creating a test to detect those that have immunity after having had the virus. Means that at least part of the economy will be able to operate safely without exposing others. 

[Deleted User]

If vaccine takes 18 months under the current system of half measures, the financial system will collapse. A months of aggressive shut downs, so that millennials (not at risk to themselves but to hated boomers) can’t go to the beaches, seems like a more palatable option. 

michaels

The model says that it will come back if we end the shutdown until either there is a vaccine or there is herd immunity so the shutdown has to last until the middle of next year - I guess China will tell us whether the model is right.

[Deleted User]

michaels said:

The model says that it will come back if we end the shutdown until either there is a vaccine or there is herd immunity so the shutdown has to last until the middle of next year - I guess China will tell us whether the model is right.

Yeah, I don’t get this model. Once eliminated SARS, H1N1 never came back. Ok, maybe it has to be 2 months rather than 1. Still better than neither here nor there for a year.  Of course I am no expert; just seems weird

fizio

Vaccine will be a lot quicker that 12-18month given the huge ww effort and that normal cycle of testing etc will be drasticaly reduced - Decent chance of getting it done before winter from what I am reading - though could easily be wrong..

ffacoffipawb

Base rate cut to 0.1% wow

Thrugelmir

More QE. Heading for negative yields.