Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

I'm still very bullish on AMRS too, with the new factory coming on leaps and bounds, and a revival in the prospects of their super-dense bio jet-fuel, but perhaps not so bullish on EVFM - there's no point selling now, I'll just let it ride, and hope that it will come good eventually.

EVFM is down 25% since this was posted less than four weeks ago. I take no joy in seeing someone losing money but you can’t say you weren’t warned. As for AMRS………

Yes, and (EVFM) still getting battered. I've certainly learned some hard lessons and will be a lot more picky in future when it comes to companies with questionable management, even if the idea behind the company is sound.

I really don't think AMRS is in quite the same league as EVFM in terms of bad management. Certainly management isn't perfect, and that has let the stock down somewhat, but I don't think it will be enough to derail AMRS in the same way it has EVFM.

Either way, the above mentioned stocks have not impacted my overall portfolio too much thanks to being underweight them/overweight ARWR, and (once again) it's not over till it's over - lets see where they all are in 5-10 years.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

More of the same. Down nearly 10% on great news. I'm not going to let it phase me one bit. The real money, as was always the case, is in approvals (Edit: or rather approvals and what follows as well as milestones). Was it "Gooseman" on discord who said biotechs will always be volatile till the money starts to roll in? He's spot-on IMHO.

I do think we will get analyst upgrades which should help the share price, and wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying this dip.

Regarding discord, seems fine to me although I have to admit I have yet to have a proper look around.

The problem now is that even many of the positive posters are talking in years before they see a P3 completion and see that as the only way the share price will rise significantly. Previously, many had marked the announcements this week as the time of a significant jump forward.

Well I think best case for p3 completion was always going to be late 2022/early 2023, so it's not really a huge deal if you're holding for 5-10 years. Most programs are still on track, and there might well be more BTDs declared which the market should like. Of course it's still a bit disappointing that we had no jump forward with the recent data, but sooner or later that will come.

All that said, yesterday was certainly a significant turn of events which took everyone by surprise, and now there is one less RNAi player to distract from Arrowhead - not a bad thing, and hopefully it'll become clearer to the market just how much Arrowhead has to offer compared to the dregs that are left.

You surely must be disappointed in the ARWR situation, BS, as you forecast a price of $200 by the end of this year in a post in April?  

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

More of the same. Down nearly 10% on great news. I'm not going to let it phase me one bit. The real money, as was always the case, is in approvals (Edit: or rather approvals and what follows as well as milestones). Was it "Gooseman" on discord who said biotechs will always be volatile till the money starts to roll in? He's spot-on IMHO.

I do think we will get analyst upgrades which should help the share price, and wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying this dip.

Regarding discord, seems fine to me although I have to admit I have yet to have a proper look around.

The problem now is that even many of the positive posters are talking in years before they see a P3 completion and see that as the only way the share price will rise significantly. Previously, many had marked the announcements this week as the time of a significant jump forward.

Well I think best case for p3 completion was always going to be late 2022/early 2023, so it's not really a huge deal if you're holding for 5-10 years. Most programs are still on track, and there might well be more BTDs declared which the market should like. Of course it's still a bit disappointing that we had no jump forward with the recent data, but sooner or later that will come.

All that said, yesterday was certainly a significant turn of events which took everyone by surprise, and now there is one less RNAi player to distract from Arrowhead - not a bad thing, and hopefully it'll become clearer to the market just how much Arrowhead has to offer compared to the dregs that are left.

You surely must be disappointed in the ARWR situation, BS, as you forecast a price of $200 by the end of this year in a post in April?  

It would have been nice to see $200 by EOY for sure (it might have gotten there if JnJ has uttered the words "functional cure"), but the short term matters little to me in the great scheme of things. Even if Arrowhead had made it there I wouldn't be selling - not even close. As long as Arrowhead is doing all the right things (which they are as far as I can see) I'm not really disappointed. You just have to look at Moderna. Everything came together for them thanks to covid, and they went from $18.38 (when I bought) to over $497 a few months back (wish I'd held on longer!). If anything ARWR is a better company with less competition, and a potentially larger market.

It has somewhat sucked to not be in covid stocks the last 6 months or so, and seems much of the investment has gone that way at the expense of non-covid stocks - I think that's true across the biotech sector. Just the way it is, and we are probably artificially low at this point in time due to that at least in part. I'm more than happy to wait patiently till Arrowhead gets to show the world what it can really do

BrockStoker

Another day and another top-tear pharma partner for Arrowhead. The GSK deal for NASH could be worth up to ~$1B in milestones (including over $100M upfront) + royalties. Deals like this are a solid foundation on which to build on, in order to propel Arrowhead to the next level, and they are coming thick and fast.

How many other companies out there are striking these kind of deals, while still remaining below the radar and relatively small?! Only a matter of time till Arrowhead is a household name IMHO.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Another day and another top-tear pharma partner for Arrowhead. The GSK deal for NASH could be worth up to ~$1B in milestones (including over $100M upfront) + royalties. Deals like this are a solid foundation on which to build on, in order to propel Arrowhead to the next level, and they are coming thick and fast.

How many other companies out there are striking these kind of deals, while still remaining below the radar and relatively small?! Only a matter of time till Arrowhead is a household name IMHO.

Yes. This looks like more good news, BS, and, for a change, it sent the price up after the news! As you will know, Arrowhead now has partnerships with 5 big pharma companies and an ever increasing pipeline. Some people were hoping for a takeover with Arrowhead now the last of the RNAi candidates after Dicerna going but others believe the company will end up as a huge company by standing alone. Unlike yourself, my horizon is only for a maximum of 2 to 3 years so I'm hoping for a good price increase within that timeframe!

BrockStoker

2-3 years is a big ask from any investment in a single company, but I don't see why ARWR can't make it into at least low triple digits by then.

There are even more hints that ARWR's potential is beginning to be recognized by the larger players, and that RNA based therapies are going to be the next big thing. That should start to make a big difference to share price over the coming months/years.

Leaked note from HC Wainwright to their "favored clients": “Leading RNAi TRiM Platform on track to generate peak annual revenues of more than $20B; Reiterate buy”

doe808

Any UK domiciled funds with significant holdings in ARWR?

BrockStoker

doe808 said:

Any UK domiciled funds with significant holdings in ARWR?

None that I'm aware of sadly. I had hoped either Polar Capital Biotechnology or Worldwide Healthcare Trust (both of which I hold) bought a significant position, but instead most biotech/healthcare funds seem to have jumped on the Alnylam Bandwagon.

However it might be worth checking here if something might be suitable which I've overlooked.

BrockStoker

To add to my post above, I think holding ARWR shares directly is always going to be the better option. Even if you found a fund holding it at a significant weighting, there's no guarantee that the position is not cut down or gone a few months later, when it's likely that the largest share price appreciation will happen over the next 5-10 years IMHO. You'd also likely be holding 90%+ of stocks you probably don't want to hold as well.

Just don't set a stop loss, be prepared for further volatility (hold cash - don't blow it all in one big buy), and learn all you can about Arrowhead/RNAi while you wait for it to grow.

Voyager2002

Time to buy Amyris?
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202112230700PR_NEWS_USPRX____SF16161-1

or
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amyris-and-minerva-foods-complete-joint-venture-and-license-agreements-to-scale-low-carbon-protein-production-platform-301450267.html