Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

New article from SA entitled "Johnson & Johnson's JNJ-3989 News Could Propel Arrowhead Stock To New All-Time Highs":

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464828-johnson-and-johnson-jnj-3989-propel-arrowhead-stock-to-new-all-time-highs

Nothing there most of us didn't already know I'm guessing (going to read it in a minute), but nice to see excitement building! The stock is up around $17 over just 3 trading sessions on just "buy the rumor" - time to strap yourselves in case there is good news!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

New article from SA entitled "Johnson & Johnson's JNJ-3989 News Could Propel Arrowhead Stock To New All-Time Highs":

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464828-johnson-and-johnson-jnj-3989-propel-arrowhead-stock-to-new-all-time-highs

Nothing there most of us didn't already know I'm guessing (going to read it in a minute), but nice to see excitement building! The stock is up around $17 over just 3 trading sessions on just "buy the rumor" - time to strap yourselves in case there is good news!

Seem to be several possiblilities for P3 in the pipeline so looks good.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

New article from SA entitled "Johnson & Johnson's JNJ-3989 News Could Propel Arrowhead Stock To New All-Time Highs":

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464828-johnson-and-johnson-jnj-3989-propel-arrowhead-stock-to-new-all-time-highs

Nothing there most of us didn't already know I'm guessing (going to read it in a minute), but nice to see excitement building! The stock is up around $17 over just 3 trading sessions on just "buy the rumor" - time to strap yourselves in case there is good news!

Seem to be several possiblilities for P3 in the pipeline so looks good.

Should have at least two, and possibly up to four or five P3 trials initiated before the end of next year - moving towards being a late stage biotech is a big deal anyway, but multiple P3s should really stake Arrowheads claim.

Unfortunately Amyris has taken a pounding over the last few days. Melo needs to get his act together and not over promise like he did. To be fair, most of the miss can be blamed on supply chain issues, so I consider this a buying opportunity. The market is being very hard on companies that do not have glowing earnings right now, and the selling does seem very over-done. Now if the price can just stay depressed till the start of the next tax year.. I doubt it will, but anything is possible!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

New article from SA entitled "Johnson & Johnson's JNJ-3989 News Could Propel Arrowhead Stock To New All-Time Highs":

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464828-johnson-and-johnson-jnj-3989-propel-arrowhead-stock-to-new-all-time-highs

Nothing there most of us didn't already know I'm guessing (going to read it in a minute), but nice to see excitement building! The stock is up around $17 over just 3 trading sessions on just "buy the rumor" - time to strap yourselves in case there is good news!

Seem to be several possiblilities for P3 in the pipeline so looks good.

Should have at least two, and possibly up to four or five P3 trials initiated before the end of next year - moving towards being a late stage biotech is a big deal anyway, but multiple P3s should really stake Arrowheads claim.

Unfortunately Amyris has taken a pounding over the last few days. Melo needs to get his act together and not over promise like he did. To be fair, most of the miss can be blamed on supply chain issues, so I consider this a buying opportunity. The market is being very hard on companies that do not have glowing earnings right now, and the selling does seem very over-done. Now if the price can just stay depressed till the start of the next tax year.. I doubt it will, but anything is possible!

Bit hit today, BS, but the same for most biotechs and I still like ARWR.

Amazingly, I sold my remaining AMRS at $13.8 on the morning of its big crash.

However, that was pure luck and the only reason I did it was to buy more ARWR!

I'm seriously thinking of buying a few AMRS at this price with some money I still have in my ISA.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

New article from SA entitled "Johnson & Johnson's JNJ-3989 News Could Propel Arrowhead Stock To New All-Time Highs":

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464828-johnson-and-johnson-jnj-3989-propel-arrowhead-stock-to-new-all-time-highs

Nothing there most of us didn't already know I'm guessing (going to read it in a minute), but nice to see excitement building! The stock is up around $17 over just 3 trading sessions on just "buy the rumor" - time to strap yourselves in case there is good news!

Seem to be several possiblilities for P3 in the pipeline so looks good.

Should have at least two, and possibly up to four or five P3 trials initiated before the end of next year - moving towards being a late stage biotech is a big deal anyway, but multiple P3s should really stake Arrowheads claim.

Unfortunately Amyris has taken a pounding over the last few days. Melo needs to get his act together and not over promise like he did. To be fair, most of the miss can be blamed on supply chain issues, so I consider this a buying opportunity. The market is being very hard on companies that do not have glowing earnings right now, and the selling does seem very over-done. Now if the price can just stay depressed till the start of the next tax year.. I doubt it will, but anything is possible!

Bit hit today, BS, but the same for most biotechs and I still like ARWR.

Amazingly, I sold my remaining AMRS at $13.8 on the morning of its big crash.

However, that was pure luck and the only reason I did it was to buy more ARWR!

I'm seriously thinking of buying a few AMRS at this price with some money I still have in my ISA.

Glad to hear you made the right call just at the right time. I think you'd be justified to sell if you think you don't have enough Arrowhead - you can never have too much, at least not while the price is this low. There are too many good things going on right now to ignore.

The same thing could also be said for Amyris, but management lets it down slightly. I think that at the end of the day, money talks/bull $*£T walks, so even with slightly sloppy management (as long as it does not extend to other aspects of the company), Amyris will still rake it in and be a very profitable investment in the near future, so yes I'd also be tempted to buy more at this price. I suspect the price might stagnate further as WS shuns the stock so could be worth waiting, but no way to tell for sure - what the street thinks is overdone is likely a totally different thing to what you or I think is overdone.

On the other hand, holding as much ARWR as possible before the talks at the conference this November might be the way to go. I think the coming months could also play out very well for ARWR too, so may as well buy ARWR and stick with it.

I'm just thinking out loud here, and there is never an easy decision, but perhaps my thought process might help you a little.

BrockStoker

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

tom9980

BrockStoker said:

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

If you haven't joined the arwr discord server you should! 

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

What I don't understand is why the ARWR price has been falling all week after all the good news you have highlighted and I have also read on the YF and Discord forums.

BrockStoker

tom9980 said:

BrockStoker said:

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

If you haven't joined the arwr discord server you should! 

I don't suppose you could post an invite link here?

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

What I don't understand is why the ARWR price has been falling all week after all the good news you have highlighted and I have also read on the YF and Discord forums.

It's a paradox, but a pattern that gets repeated over and over. ARWR goes down on good news, but heads up later. It might be that people are waiting for Monday. I think we will see some upside then, but nothing is certain as always.