Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Did anyone read the Motley Fool ARWR piece? Whilst positive, the inaccuracies were as stunning as they were blatant! How they can get away with saying that the NASH/tumor data were poor I don't know!?

Either way, the good data continues to mount up, and BTDs, the pressure for the share price to go up will continue to build, and at some point it won't be able to hold back.

At the end of the day all that matters is what the FDA (or their equivalent) and Big Pharma says. The FDA grants the approvals, and along with BP, they get to see all the data available. So BTDs, BP moving trials to phase 3/pouring in billions, all of which are/will soon be happening are all undeniable signs that Arrowhead is on track. Pretty much EVERYTHING else is noise.

Between the near useless analysts/investors who don't do their DD it's obvious why there can be such a big disconnect between share price and actual progress, and frustrating, but well worth ignoring all the noise and hanging on/focusing on what matters.

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Did anyone read the Motley Fool ARWR piece? Whilst positive, the inaccuracies were as stunning as they were blatant! How they can get away with saying that the NASH/tumor data were poor I don't know!?

Either way, the good data continues to mount up, and BTDs, the pressure for the share price to go up will continue to build, and at some point it won't be able to hold back.

At the end of the day all that matters is what the FDA (or their equivalent) and Big Pharma says. The FDA grants the approvals, and along with BP, they get to see all the data available. So BTDs, BP moving trials to phase 3/pouring in billions, all of which are/will soon be happening are all undeniable signs that Arrowhead is on track. Pretty much EVERYTHING else is noise.

Between the near useless analysts/investors who don't do their DD it's obvious why there can be such a big disconnect between share price and actual progress, and frustrating, but well worth ignoring all the noise and hanging on/focusing on what matters.

The ARWR Chinese authorisation doesn't seem to have much impact, BS, with the YMB seeming to think there needs to be an announcement from Arrowhead or J&J. On the other hand AMRS seems to be moving up nicely at the moment before the Q2 results in early August.

Some of these biotech price movements are astonishing. I was looking at SAVA today and saw its price had gone up from about $18 to $118 this year. However, there are so many companies its like finding a needle in a haystack!

Moderna has obviously zoomed because of its covid vaccine but it seems to me that its still likely to sell lots more plus boosters will be needed for a long time as more variants emerge.

Among the tiddlers, what do you think of ACRX?

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Did anyone read the Motley Fool ARWR piece? Whilst positive, the inaccuracies were as stunning as they were blatant! How they can get away with saying that the NASH/tumor data were poor I don't know!?

Either way, the good data continues to mount up, and BTDs, the pressure for the share price to go up will continue to build, and at some point it won't be able to hold back.

At the end of the day all that matters is what the FDA (or their equivalent) and Big Pharma says. The FDA grants the approvals, and along with BP, they get to see all the data available. So BTDs, BP moving trials to phase 3/pouring in billions, all of which are/will soon be happening are all undeniable signs that Arrowhead is on track. Pretty much EVERYTHING else is noise.

Between the near useless analysts/investors who don't do their DD it's obvious why there can be such a big disconnect between share price and actual progress, and frustrating, but well worth ignoring all the noise and hanging on/focusing on what matters.

The ARWR Chinese authorisation doesn't seem to have much impact, BS, with the YMB seeming to think there needs to be an announcement from Arrowhead or J&J. On the other hand AMRS seems to be moving up nicely at the moment before the Q2 results in early August.

Some of these biotech price movements are astonishing. I was looking at SAVA today and saw its price had gone up from about $18 to $118 this year. However, there are so many companies its like finding a needle in a haystack!

Moderna has obviously zoomed because of its covid vaccine but it seems to me that its still likely to sell lots more plus boosters will be needed for a long time as more variants emerge.

Among the tiddlers, what do you think of ACRX?

Yes, BTD seems to have been overlooked, at least for the moment. It's effectively money on the bank though. Will be interesting to see what happens when the FDA BTD gets a PR in the next few days.
AMRS has been making nice moves again hasn't it! Hopefully the start of the next leg up - looking forward to earnings, and the growth we can expect over the next year or two.
SAVA looks very risky, but possibly big potential, so understandable why it's gone up a fair bit. It's easy to look at something that's gone up a lot and wish you were there, but you have to keep in mind that that the biggest SAVA winners had probably endured huge swings for years before it started to gain traction, and if there's a slip up now, it could crash. ARWR has also gone up considerably over the last few years, but we have so much more to fall back on than SAVA if something were to go wrong, so I know where I'd rather have my money. That and I'm fairly sure altzhiemers is high on the list of potential targets for Arrowhead.
I quite like the look of ACRX after a quick look at what it's about. Could be worth a punt, and seems like now wouldn't be a bad time to buy some. It can seem a bit of a haystack at times, but I think most of the hay can be removed relatively easily. Out of my original 20 or so stocks, at least 8 have gone on to at least triple, and only one would have lost me a significant amount if I'd held them all till now. If I hadn't sold them all (apart from AMRS and ARWR and a couple of others) I'd probably be up a good bit more mainly thanks to BCRX, MRNA, CRSP, and TXG, but from a long term view, I'm happy with what I'm holding currently.
Finding the good companies seems quite easy from my perspective, but it's the timing that is harder to get right, which is why you have to take the long term view and try to stick with great (rather than "good") companies. I believe at least some of the companies mentioned in your/this post might just be "quick flashes in the pan" in comparison to ARWR or AMRS, which is why I think these two in particular would make a great core holding in a portfolio, with perhaps a couple more smaller punts, as I have done.
Either way it's a wild ride, but focusing on a few companies that you know very well (and trust) has to be the way to go since it takes quite a bit of time effort to keep up with just one busy company, so I can't see how it's possible to keep a proper eye on so many balls (unless you have very little else to do). I suppose everyone will have their own sweet spot, and in my own case (to keep things in perspective) I prefer most of my invested cash to go into managed funds, leaving professional money managers to do the hard work.

adindas

BrockStoker said:

Did anyone read the Motley Fool ARWR piece?

Motley fool is there to fool people. In some cases, they might get funded bribed by the HFs to write an article for the hedgies interest.

Look at about their coverage about the AMC and/or GME. Almost in each of their article  keep talking about fundamental of these companies. Try to split the apes by splitting apes to short other stocks which are mostly owned by the HFs.

Fortunately, many of the apes are not so gullible, and know that AMC and GME is not about fundamental but for momentum play. The apes keep united and they do not buy what is written in the motley fool article which is likely get funded by the hedgies doing shorting these stocks and likely to get squeezed.

tom9980

EVFM sure know how to bend over their shareholders. A lot depends on what they say with results, unfortunately the identity of the celebrity doesn't seem to be anyone significant. They need to lay out the plan for the new shelf offering other than paying the wages of employees who are not adding value.

Cus

Arrowhead not looking good recently.  Profit on the punt I took now almost gone...

moneyfoolish

Cus said:

Arrowhead not looking good recently.  Profit on the punt I took now almost gone...

Lucky you! I'm down around 30% on Arrowhead and the same on Amyris. If you add in the 10% down on Avacta my biotechs have been a disaster up to now. With the odd exception biotechs are well out of favour at the moment.

Moe_The_Bartender

I wonder how many of those who bought ARWR but for an amateur punter plugging it on here. I doubt that any would have even heard of it.

As for EVFM, don’t get me started……..

Cus

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I wonder how many of those who bought ARWR but for an amateur punter plugging it on here. I doubt that any would have even heard of it.

As for EVFM, don’t get me started……..

Well I can confirm one person for arrowhead - me 😁

It was like hearing some bloke in the pub having a dead cert in the 3.20 at aintree... Couldn't resist...

moneyfoolish

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I wonder how many of those who bought ARWR but for an amateur punter plugging it on here. I doubt that any would have even heard of it.

As for EVFM, don’t get me started……..

Arrowhead has a great pipeline of possibilities and partnerships but like any small biotech company its price can fluctuate wildly. Just look at the list below and tell me that this isn't a company with great prospects.

https://arrowheadpharma.com/pipeline/