We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum... Read More »
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far
Options
Comments
-
moneyfoolish said:The thread has been silent because BrockStoker who was the main contributor has stopped posting. I don't know if he stopped because he got fed up of being called an "amateur" or whether it was because his investments were taking a bit of a bashing! It's a shame as I always enjoyed his posts and IMO he has a good knowledge of the biotech arena. I am still holding 3 biotech companies and all are still making losses but seem to have stabilized lately. I still have reasonable hopes for all 3 but any biotechs are a gamble but it won't be life changing to me if they were all to go bust or they were all to multiply by 10.
I think BrockStoker was happy to admit that he was an amateur, and for a long time this thread was an interesting case of what us amateurs can achieve against the finance professionals. We all knew that these companies were a far greater risk than the more established companies chosen by the likes of Polar and so accepted the possibility of very high losses. What is interesting is that the losses most of us have suffered seem to reflect a change in market sentiment rather than any serious problems in most of the companies in question (other than EVFM).
2 -
Hello all - hope everyone is well!Apologies for my long absence and lack of reply. In August I was up to my eyeballs. As usual everything came at me at once, and I'm still trying to clear the backlog. There are also times when I simply can't face typing (for me typing, even short posts, is often excruciatingly slow - I started typing this post @ around 7PM for example, and this is probably a better day for me!), and on top of that I have a bad habit of putting things off, then it gets too far gone.Anyway, I'm still fully invested (nothing bought or sold since earlier on this year) and keeping a close eye on the portfolios.@Worried_fool is correct - I see myself as an amateur, and I don't think MOST professionals have any significant advantage over someone like myself, providing I've done my homework. I think the internet (and general accessibility to financial services/brokers) has leveled the playing field in general, giving us most of the tools/info needed to compete with the pros.Regarding recent performance, again I think Worried_fool is spot on - Covid has been a bit of a double edged sword, pushing up the sector to begin with, but now holding back the sector, and I think because most investors are in risk-off mode due to general market worries. Biotech, which is seen as one of the riskiest sectors is bound to suffer at times like this, and especially companies which still don't have approvals/products on the market, so it's been a bumpy ride recently for the more speculative investors. It's not a problem with the companies themselves, so this is one of those times investors in risky assets need to hunker down and wait till the tide turns, or even buy more (if you have the stomach for it).Thank you also Worried_fool for the BBC link which I'll check out later.Regarding funds, I'm still a big fan of Polar Capital's Biotechnology fund which has performed very well since I bought it and held up much better than others (at least the few that I keep an eye on) during the choppy times. I'm not much of a fan of the Axa Framlington fund which I think is not managed as well as it could be, and likewise for The Biotechnology Trust, which I think took their eye off the ball a couple of years back, then tried to make up for it by buying into a bunch of very risky biotechs, which has come back to haunt them in recent months. Not very confidence inspiring to see them flopping back and forth trying to make up for past failures - which is about the worst thing any investor can do, let alone pros. Here's the chart I use to compare performance - I also hold the Worldwide Healthcare Trust:So yes, even the professionals struggle to get it right, but I have to say, I do sometimes wonder how competent some of these so called professionals are! Cathie Wood is another prime example - investing in heavily hyped names was never a good idea, at least for the poor suckers that bought in to ARK funds near the top. So many red flags with stocks like CRSP, I'm surprised she completely ignored them and carried on buying despite the warning signs.As for Arrowhead, it's never looked better IMHO. The pipeline is expanding faster than ever and I have no doubt the share price will eventually reflect this properly, especially since much of the gene editing hype is starting to abate now, hopefully setting the stage for the spotlight to fall on Arrowhead in the near future. As always, it's a long term play, so no point getting hopes up for fast profit, and perhaps I did slightly fall into that trap myself to begin with, although I was/am mentally prepared for the long haul.I think this post from ZAGLAND on the ARWR YF message board puts it nicely into perspective, and there is no reason to think more of the same is not to come:"Dear Arrowheads, with Halloween just 2 weeks away I wanted to haunt you tonight. Ready:
My favorite Halloween Candy is the 100,000 dollar grand candy bar. So now you bony skeletons here are some howlings
Take that 100,000 Grand Bar and go back to January 1st 2017 (5 years) and invest $ 100,000 in each of these
ABUS, CRISPER, ALNY, and others . Here is the spooky chart
January 1, 2017
ABUS Shares@$2.65 (37,735) Oct 15, 2021 @4.08 Profit $53,962
CRISPER Shares@$22.54 (4,436) Oct 15, 2021@98.70 Profit $337,888
ALNY Shares@$40 (2,500) Oct 15, 2021@208.56 Profit of $421,400
ARWR Shares@$1.94 (51,500) Oct 15, 2021@66.83 Profit $3,344,893
Other notables during same 5 year period:
NFLX Profit of $348,000
GOOG Profit of $253,000
CHIPOLTE Profit of $334,000
AMAZON Profit of $314,000
J&J Profit of $29,838
AMGN Profit of $32,000
Truly amazing what a $100,000 dollar grand candy bar could have made you with ARWR filling your bag with a profit of $3,344,893. Now I understand why so many want to partner with Arrowhead.Happy Halloween!"I'm still very bullish on AMRS too, with the new factory coming on leaps and bounds, and a revival in the prospects of their super-dense bio jet-fuel, but perhaps not so bullish on EVFM - there's no point selling now, I'll just let it ride, and hope that it will come good eventually.I'll try to post a bit more frequently but can't guarantee that I'll always reply promptly. Thanks to all for holding the fort/keeping the thread going especially @moneyfoolish .6 -
So two bits of arrowhead news.
First ARO-APOC3 is to advance to phase 3. This is not yet PR'd https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05089084
It could take them a month to beat the drum.
Second is Arrowhead are building a new facility in Verona California. This is ultimately for manufacturing and research facility breaking ground in December with the manufacturing facility operational in 2024. So they expect to need to manufacture their own drugs in 2024 all being well. Remember that does not include partnered drugs.When using the housing forum please use the sticky threads for valuable information.2 -
tom9980 said:So two bits of arrowhead news.
First ARO-APOC3 is to advance to phase 3. This is not yet PR'd https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05089084
It could take them a month to beat the drum.
Second is Arrowhead are building a new facility in Verona California. This is ultimately for manufacturing and research facility breaking ground in December with the manufacturing facility operational in 2024. So they expect to need to manufacture their own drugs in 2024 all being well. Remember that does not include partnered drugs.Thanks for posting Tom. Yes, the news about the new facility has been floating about for a while - more evidence (if it was ever needed) that Arrowhead is gearing up for big things! The phase 3 news has been anticipated for a while now, but great to see the first evidence that it will soon be underway.Also caught the news that Amgen is looking for a Phase 3 Medical Director with phase 3 Amg-890 not far away - it won't be long till there are multiple drugs in P3!Now lets hope the heavyweights of investing start to take notice!1 -
Another bit of good news today re Arrowhead although hasn't done anything for the price..
1 -
moneyfoolish said:Another bit of good news today re Arrowhead although hasn't done anything for the price..More buds that will eventually flower, and bear fruit in the not too distant future. There should literally be a bunch of fruit that ripen at around the same time - and I expect the share price will reflect this when it happens - that's not to say it couldn't happen before then.Hopefully the ride will get a little smoother soon (it'll never be very smooth but should improve with approvals/revenue/milestones), and perhaps our competition faltering will help investors see how solid ARWR is in comparison.I'm sure all the Arrowheads here noticed Anylam getting a fair size chunk torn out of it today over various woes - as noted on the ARWR YFMB, it and DRNA seem to have badly thought out business models which entail selling/partnering off their most lucrative indications while hanging on to their ultra-orphan indications, while Arrowhead is keeping almost all of it's potential blockbusters in-house and making very favourable deals for the few it partners.So with the competition faltering and with new data just around the corner in early November, I think we could have a nice end to the year, although as always it could go any way in the short term, but it's what happens in the long term that really matters.Edit to add: Also noticed that Biden has backed down on drug pricing - that should give the whole industry a tailwind.0
-
Good to see you back posting BS.I do detect some nervous people on the ARWR YFMB even from the serious posters (there do seem to be quite a few de-rampers posting daily) as there were expectations of more P3 news over the last couple of months which hasn't arrived as yet and worries over the ENAC.The feeling for ALNY price drop on the ARWR board seems to be that it is maily because the CEO is leaving.There is a lot I've read lately re AMRS that I find very positive also. New plant in Brazil seems to be moving forward very quickly, talk of bio-fuel testing with the US Air Force and new product lines. Price seems to be moving up again quite nicely after the big drop.0
-
Some cautious optimism I think, which may not be a bad thing. I do still like the way things are shaping up for ARWR this quarter, and it does look like we're starting to get a bit of love today - investors excited about upcoming conferences/data I'd guess, and with good reason!0
-
BrockStoker said:Some cautious optimism I think, which may not be a bad thing. I do still like the way things are shaping up for ARWR this quarter, and it does look like we're starting to get a bit of love today - investors excited about upcoming conferences/data I'd guess, and with good reason!
#DYK that up to 100,000 people in the United States will become infected with #HepatitisB this year alone? Learn about how an #RNAi therapeutic candidate developed from our TRIM platform could potentially help these patients: https://!!!!!!/3oCGJ7u
When using the housing forum please use the sticky threads for valuable information.0 -
tom9980 said:BrockStoker said:Some cautious optimism I think, which may not be a bad thing. I do still like the way things are shaping up for ARWR this quarter, and it does look like we're starting to get a bit of love today - investors excited about upcoming conferences/data I'd guess, and with good reason!
#DYK that up to 100,000 people in the United States will become infected with #HepatitisB this year alone? Learn about how an #RNAi therapeutic candidate developed from our TRIM platform could potentially help these patients: https://!!!!!!/3oCGJ7uYeah, I spotted that too. It's staggering how big an indication this is. If you consider that the numbers in China dwarf those in the US, and we are targeting China, then the numbers involved are mind boggling.On another note, nice surge from BNGO today - the portfolios are starting to look much better in a very short space of time.0
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 351.2K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.2K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 453.7K Spending & Discounts
- 244.2K Work, Benefits & Business
- 599.3K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177K Life & Family
- 257.6K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.2K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards