Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

tom9980

BrockStoker said:

tom9980 said:

BrockStoker said:

After looking over the YF message board today I'd be leaning even more towards buying ARWR rather than AMRS if you have not already MF.

Good points raised there, like why would JnJ release the REEF 1 trial data a year early if it was not a great success? No one in their right mind would schedule a conference, and invite highly respected specialists in their field to discuss poor or even mediocre results!

If this is as good as we are hoping, JnJ being the behemoth that is will effectively shine the spotlight on a small biotech called Arrowhead which carries a very bargain basement valuation - something we already know, but will become clearer to the market as the great data hits.. and hits again, and again, etc.  Monday is going to be interesting I think!

BioBoyScout's post also caught my eye. He says that the picture painted by the nay sayers who claim Arrowhead is struggling is way off. If you look at the long list of things they have going on or have guided to start soon, it paints a picture of a biotech that is laying the foundations for aggressive growth - a struggling biotech would have to be suicidal to initiate this much in such a short space of time, and that is a long way from the impression I have here of what is actually going on. It's all systems go/thrusters at max as far as I can see.

Then there is the news that "Dirk", a long time critic of Arrowhead, has completely reversed course and said "Amazing how this company executes. Basically no mis-steps since DPC disaster.". When the staunch critics start throwing the towel in I think it says something.

If you take all of this together, it suggests ARWR is a screaming buy IMHO.

Edit to add: Looking over what has been said about AMRS recently also makes me bullish that sooner or later it will bounce back and then some - consensus seems to be growing that the drop was a huge over reaction. The missing $millions from this quarter's earnings should be added to the next quarter's earnings, and expectations are for the best numbers so far. Revenue from consumer brands is growing at a zippy 3x every year, so those billions are soon going to start adding up in a very meaningful way.

I still see AMRS as more risky than ARWR due to the management issues, but along with this dip, and near term potential it would not surprise me if AMRS made a quick recovery and then went to $30-40, so it could turn out to be more lucrative in the short term. Which you go for (or went for), should do very well IMHO. It's hard to pick them apart at this stage!

If you haven't joined the arwr discord server you should! 

I don't suppose you could post an invite link here?

https://discord.gg/q7cyrSVN

I find it works best on mobile app.

BrockStoker

Thanks Tom. Using a PC but I'll give it a try.

moneyfoolish

I'm using it on a laptop, BS, and it's fine although I can't say I'm keen on the format. However, most of the people on it seem to have a good grasp of biotech and there are none of the annoying de-rampers who appear on the YF as soon as the price goes down. One of the things I like is that you get an email each day pointing you to posts you haven't seen previously.

moneyfoolish

Another day where ARWR was going to zoom but, instead, has fallen like a stone! It seems as though almost every announcement is regarded as being positive by brokers and investors but negative by the market!

BrockStoker

More of the same. Down nearly 10% on great news. I'm not going to let it phase me one bit. The real money, as was always the case, is in approvals (Edit: or rather approvals and what follows as well as milestones). Was it "Gooseman" on discord who said biotechs will always be volatile till the money starts to roll in? He's spot-on IMHO.

I do think we will get analyst upgrades which should help the share price, and wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying this dip.

Regarding discord, seems fine to me although I have to admit I have yet to have a proper look around.

Worried_fool

tom9980 said:

I don't suppose you could post an invite link here?

https://discord.gg/q7cyrSVN

I find it works best on mobile app.

Invalid link... does it dislike PC users or do they expire after 24 hours?

tom9980

Worried_fool said:

tom9980 said:

I don't suppose you could post an invite link here?

https://discord.gg/q7cyrSVN

I find it works best on mobile app.

Invalid link... does it dislike PC users or do they expire after 24 hours?

https://discord.gg/8e44w366

Links expire

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

More of the same. Down nearly 10% on great news. I'm not going to let it phase me one bit. The real money, as was always the case, is in approvals (Edit: or rather approvals and what follows as well as milestones). Was it "Gooseman" on discord who said biotechs will always be volatile till the money starts to roll in? He's spot-on IMHO.

I do think we will get analyst upgrades which should help the share price, and wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying this dip.

Regarding discord, seems fine to me although I have to admit I have yet to have a proper look around.

The problem now is that even many of the positive posters are talking in years before they see a P3 completion and see that as the only way the share price will rise significantly. Previously, many had marked the announcements this week as the time of a significant jump forward.

Moe_The_Bartender

BrockStoker said:

I'm still very bullish on AMRS too, with the new factory coming on leaps and bounds, and a revival in the prospects of their super-dense bio jet-fuel, but perhaps not so bullish on EVFM - there's no point selling now, I'll just let it ride, and hope that it will come good eventually.

EVFM is down 25% since this was posted less than four weeks ago. I take no joy in seeing someone losing money but you can’t say you weren’t warned. As for AMRS………

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

More of the same. Down nearly 10% on great news. I'm not going to let it phase me one bit. The real money, as was always the case, is in approvals (Edit: or rather approvals and what follows as well as milestones). Was it "Gooseman" on discord who said biotechs will always be volatile till the money starts to roll in? He's spot-on IMHO.

I do think we will get analyst upgrades which should help the share price, and wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying this dip.

Regarding discord, seems fine to me although I have to admit I have yet to have a proper look around.

The problem now is that even many of the positive posters are talking in years before they see a P3 completion and see that as the only way the share price will rise significantly. Previously, many had marked the announcements this week as the time of a significant jump forward.

Well I think best case for p3 completion was always going to be late 2022/early 2023, so it's not really a huge deal if you're holding for 5-10 years. Most programs are still on track, and there might well be more BTDs declared which the market should like. Of course it's still a bit disappointing that we had no jump forward with the recent data, but sooner or later that will come.

All that said, yesterday was certainly a significant turn of events which took everyone by surprise, and now there is one less RNAi player to distract from Arrowhead - not a bad thing, and hopefully it'll become clearer to the market just how much Arrowhead has to offer compared to the dregs that are left.