Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

Moe_The_Bartender

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

adindas

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

BrockStoker

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

It'll probably take a catalyst/good news to trigger a short squeeze - perhaps the earnings, if they are a good surprise.

On another note, after thinking long and hard, I decided to buy some more AMRS for my GIA (I can't see the share price staying this low by the time I'm able to buy in my ISA), so I've set up a couple of limit buys. So far none have triggered by the looks of it, but was within 1-2 cents or triggering at one point - why is it I always seem to find the "edge", but never quite get over it!?

adindas

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

It'll probably take a catalyst/good news to trigger a short squeeze - perhaps the earnings, if they are a good surprise.

On another note, after thinking long and hard, I decided to buy some more AMRS for my GIA (I can't see the share price staying this low by the time I'm able to buy in my ISA), so I've set up a couple of limit buys. So far none have triggered by the looks of it, but was within 1-2 cents or triggering at one point - why is it I always seem to find the "edge", but never quite get over it!?

In my personal opinion you should be careful adding position in biotech stock in this climate. This Lady from FED Lael Brainard is saying that she will control inflation?? (Analysts translate that FED will be taking a hawkish action to combat inflation aggressively??)

https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-brainard-controlling-inflation-is-most-important-task-2022-01-12/

For that reason, you see why many growths stock, tech stocks keep dropping since this announcement. Also the inflation figure was just published recently and the inflation figure is the highest since 40yrs.

They will have no other option than raising interest rate, it might be 4 times this year (instaed of 3 previous planned). The more aggressive option is that they start balancing their book by offloading their bonds.

The high growth stock especially biotech, unprofitable tech stocks with very little revenue will become the first victim, however good they are.

If the Biotech stocks and have a lot of debt, which will normally the case, they will be suffering from interest rising. The bear market could take more than a year to turn back to bull market. For people with the view of long term holding and could sustain loss more than a year (say) might be ok.

BrockStoker

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

It'll probably take a catalyst/good news to trigger a short squeeze - perhaps the earnings, if they are a good surprise.

On another note, after thinking long and hard, I decided to buy some more AMRS for my GIA (I can't see the share price staying this low by the time I'm able to buy in my ISA), so I've set up a couple of limit buys. So far none have triggered by the looks of it, but was within 1-2 cents or triggering at one point - why is it I always seem to find the "edge", but never quite get over it!?

In my personal opinion you should be careful adding position in biotech stock in this climate. This Lady from FED Lael Brainard is saying that she will control inflation?? (Analysts translate that FED will be taking a hawkish action to combat inflation aggressively??)

https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-brainard-controlling-inflation-is-most-important-task-2022-01-12/

For that reason, you see why many growths stock, tech stocks keep dropping since this announcement. Also the inflation figure was just published recently and the inflation figure is the highest since 40yrs.

They will have no other option than raising interest rate, it might be 4 times this year (instaed of 3 previous planned). The more aggressive option is that they start balancing their book by offloading their bonds.

The high growth stock especially biotech, unprofitable tech stocks with very little revenue will become the first victim, however good they are.

If the Biotech stocks and have a lot of debt, which will normally the case, they will be suffering from interest rising. The bear market could take more than a year to turn back to bull market. For people with the view of long term holding and could sustain loss more than a year (say) might be ok.

I appreciate your note of caution adindas. It's not going to phase me however since I'm prepared to hold for many years, even deep in the red - remember, I was already holding around 1k AMRS @ around $16 (as well as another 1K @ under $3). This time I'll also try to hold back much more dry powder than I have done previously. At least I should be able to DCA down a bit if there are further dips. I'd like to think that EPS will turn positive for AMRS within the year, and AMRS should grow despite a hostile interest rate environment. So I'm covered either way.

I am fully committing here (as I have already with ARWR) and although it might seem counterintuitive, I believe that significantly increasing my holding might actually somewhat de-risk my investment in AMRS. Compare the following two scenarios for example:

1. (original plan) To hold ~2000 shares till around $1000 share price.

2. (new plan) Hold at least 10,000 shares, selling 1-2K at $100-$200 share price, and the rest at $500-$1000.

Obviously there's never any guarantee that any of these price targets will be met, but the chances of plan #2 succeeding (at least the first part, which would return all of my initial investment) are much better than plan #1's chances.

Keep in mind that Amyris' current valuation is equivalent to what it's Biossance brand is currently worth, and this is just one of multiple fast growing revenue streams, so AMRS is highly undervalued now IMHO. Could it go lower? Perhaps - markets can remain irrational longer than you/or I can remain solvent, so the saying goes, but in my case I don't necessarily ever need the money back, although it would be nice if I did get it back one day. However, I think this is bottom or at least near too it, and I think $20 share price or more is possible this year.

BrockStoker

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

AMRS may actually be the better bet for a short squeeze. Short % of Float (Dec 30, 2021) 20.26%.

Posted by someone on the YHF MB:

AMRS's short interest increased by over 3 million shares. When it comes to short selling AMRS's stock, here is a simple comment:
"Due, it is going to sting. That's all I can say." - Elon Musk
SETTLEMENT DATE SHORT INTEREST AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME DAYS TO COVER
12/31/2021 40,816,800 6,752,297 6.044876

adindas

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

AMRS may actually be the better bet for a short squeeze. Short % of Float (Dec 30, 2021) 20.26%.

Posted by someone on the YHF MB:

AMRS's short interest increased by over 3 million shares. When it comes to short selling AMRS's stock, here is a simple comment:
"Due, it is going to sting. That's all I can say." - Elon Musk
SETTLEMENT DATE SHORT INTEREST AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME DAYS TO COVER
12/31/2021 40,816,800 6,752,297 6.044876

To analyse the possibility of the short squeeze  12/31/2021 is too long as the shortsellers could literally cover their shorts in just a few days.

The data that support possibility of short squeeze available in Fintel

https://fintel.io/ss/us/amrs

Days to Cover (DTC) 5.47 days (this is high)

Short Interest % Float             20.07% - (this is enough to trigger a short squeeze). And this is keep increasing day by day basis. the last one increased by  8%

Dark Pool Short Volume        923,576 shares - source: FINRA

Dark Pool Short Volume Ratio          42.78% - source: FINRA

The actual data above is not really accurate as many of the shares are traded on the Darkpool. .e. g 42.78% are traded under the darkpool. This is normaly to hide their activities. You could see

Also fail to deliver (FTD). Literally they just pay the fine.

The data that against the short squeeze is

The cost to borrow (CTB) is also available here

https://iborrowdesk.com/report/AMRS

0.5 %   4,300,000        2022-01-14 16:45:03 (same as the one available in fintel)

The Cost to borrow of 0.5% is too low to trigger a short squeeze. They could comfortably pay that fee to maintain their short position as long as they want to. Also, there are still a lot of shares available to short e.g 4,300,000

Fintel and/or ortex normally produce a score (e.g 0-100%) to see the possibility of the short squeeze to happen. Unfortunately, this is just available to paid subscriber.

Some data is also available here

https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=AMRS&submit=Short+Quote™

BrockStoker

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Evofem pops around 30% intraday on news that health insurance providers will cover the costs of Phexi for those who want it. Super heavy volume too. 

And now it’s popped all the way back down again.

But on significantly lower volume. Shorts pilling in. However that will likely make for an even bigger short squeeze later on. EVFM looks like it will soon be very profitable. 70% Q on Q increase in Phexxi sales soon starts to add up.

I just checked it, the cost to borrow (CTB) on IBKR for EVFM stock is indeed high around 15% today which could also the same with other brokers, and only limited number of shares to short. Moreover the CTB keeps rising on day to day basis since recently. The short sellers are feeling the pain now paying that fees. That explains why the share price for this stock keep falling quite recently, e.g due to the shortsellers attack.

The probability of the short squeeze to happen is not only dictated by the CTB, but it also depends on Utilization percentage (U), Short Interest (SI), Days to Cover (DTC).

Unfortunately, this information is only available behind the paywall in Ortex or Fintel. Those who have access to this info mind to share it?

AMRS may actually be the better bet for a short squeeze. Short % of Float (Dec 30, 2021) 20.26%.

Posted by someone on the YHF MB:

AMRS's short interest increased by over 3 million shares. When it comes to short selling AMRS's stock, here is a simple comment:
"Due, it is going to sting. That's all I can say." - Elon Musk
SETTLEMENT DATE SHORT INTEREST AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME DAYS TO COVER
12/31/2021 40,816,800 6,752,297 6.044876

To analyse the possibility of the short squeeze  12/31/2021 is too long as the short squeeze could literally covert their shorts in just a few days.

The data that support possibility of short squeeze available in Fintel

https://fintel.io/ss/us/amrs

Days to Cover (DTC) 5.47 days (this is high)

Short Interest % Float             20.07% - (this is enough to trigger a short squeeze). But this is increasing day by day basis. the last one is 8%

Dark Pool Short Volume        923,576 shares - source: FINRA

Dark Pool Short Volume Ratio          42.78% - source: FINRA

The actual data above is not really accurate as many of the shares are traded on the Dark pool. .e. g 42.78% are taed under the darkpool. Thi sis normaly to hide their activities. You could see

Also fail to deliver (FTD). Literally they just pay the fine.

The data that against the short squeeze is

The cost to borrow (CTB) is also available here

https://iborrowdesk.com/report/AMRS

0.5 %   4,300,000        2022-01-14 16:45:03 (same as the one available in fintel)

The Cost to borrow of 0.5% is too low to trigger a short squeeze. They could comfortably pay that fee to maintain their short position as long as they want to. Also, there are still a lot of shares available to short e.g 4,300,000

Fintel and/or ortex normally produce a score (e.g 0-100%) to see the possibility of the short squeeze to happen. Unfortunately, this is just available to paid subscriber.

Some data is also available here

https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=AMRS&submit=Short+Quote™

Thanks adindas. Very interesting, and not quite what I expected.

BrockStoker

Why is it that growth stocks suffer in high interest rate environments?

Is it (at least partly) because a fast growing company needs to borrow to sustain growth, so in a high interest rate environment they are unable to borrow to the same extent without paying through the nose?

If that is indeed the case, then there is another reason to be bullish on Amyris in the near-mid term, because a few months back they raised money ($400m in convertible senior notes) that should see then through the next few years. At the time investors did not like this of course, and the share price plunged (partly due to this and partly due to the earnings miss), but it actually seems to have been a very shrewd move by Melo since the dilution is limited by capped calls, and unlike other companies, Amyris does not have to borrow at a high rate now.

Any way I look at it, the recent share price crash is not justified. Supply chain issues (which caused the earning miss) seem to be the main gripe with investors here, and they should melt away over the coming weeks/months. Markets for the most part only seem interested in the short term - that seems fairly obvious in this case - strongly suggesting that there's money to be made in the long term, at least for those with strong stomachs.