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I was actually pleasantly surprised when looking at the UK "clean energy" average figures over the last year compared to fossil fuels at grid.iamkate.com
When adding nuclear and bio to RE, the figure is 48% versus 43% fossil fuels.
So you could say we're 'marginal' clean. :beer:Scott in Fife, 2.9kwp pv SSW facing, 2.7kw Fronius inverter installed Jan 2012 - 14.3kwh Seplos Mason battery storage with Lux ac controller - Renault Zoe 40kwh, Corsa-e 50kwh, Zappi EV charger and Octopus Go0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »So let's look at 3.3%pa over 10yrs, that would be, oh tricky maths, let me get my calculator ...... 3.3 ....... add your age ...... divide by the first number you think of ....... reverse 3.3 ....... and I think it's roughly 33%?NE Derbyshire.4kWp S Facing 17.5deg slope (dormer roof).24kWh of Pylontech batteries with Lux controller BEV : Hyundai Ioniq50
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If 3.3%p.a. is compounded, it actually gives 38.76% after ten years.
It isn't compounded
The UK target is now 40GW by 2030 (I'm not sure if this is installed or installed and under construction it would make a difference)
That's ~30GW over 10 years which works out to 31.4% conversion but I assumed the new turbines might get a bit better so increased it to 33% or a linear 3.3% averaged per year0 -
I was actually pleasantly surprised when looking at the UK "clean energy" average figures over the last year compared to fossil fuels at grid.iamkate.com
When adding nuclear and bio to RE, the figure is 48% versus 43% fossil fuels.
So you could say we're 'marginal' clean. :beer:
That's not what marginal generation means nor even close
Also Half the UK nuclear reactors are closing in 2023/4
The lost generation is equal to every single offshore wind turbine ever built in UK waters upto today. Talk about taking two steps forward two steps back0 -
The shift to BEVs is actually much easier than the switch to electric heating. A typical gas boiler consumes 24kWh & that translates to 120amps of electricity if you switched to a resistance heater ... a typical supply is 100A. Heat pumps would solve the problem but they are prohibitively expensive & don’t easily retrofit into an existing property.
No
A typical gas boiler has a peak power supply of upto 24KW correct but That doesn't mean you need a 24KW electricity supply to replace the 24KW boiler
You can have a simple hot water tank instead
Those are typically 3KW immersion hesters and they do the job just fine
In fact I own a resistance heated terrace it's my old home
It has a 150 litre tank with a 3KW immersion heater
And a 4KW electric flow boiler
And the two can be set up so only one goes on at any one time
With the tank taking priority (tank is always on until it gets to the full 65 centigrade) and only then does the 4kw boiler go on and only when the thermostat calls for heating of the home
So you don't need 24KW you need 4KW
In fact 3KW tank for water and central heating would be just fine
Or 2KW tank and a 1KW resistance heater per bedroom/room which would mean probably 6 rooms for a typical house. This is if you don't want/have wet radiators. For new builds this would be cheaper easier. For existing systems a flow boiler using the existing radiators would probably be preferable by customers
Or a 11KW water heater like a business I have
Yes they can run a shower just fine
I don't think these are set up to be able to run wet radiators bit how difficult would it be
It's the exact same thing plus a pump
https://www.screwfix.com/p/strom-seih11kts1-touchscreen-instantaneous-water-heater-11kw/4681p
These are cheaper to install and much smaller than a normal gas boiler look at the dimensions
You can also sore them very close to the main hot water needs area aka the bathroom
I would do one of the above
Probably the cheap 3KW tank and radiator heater
But I'd also add a couple of air to air heat pumps to improve efficiency
This should be affordable even middle income hot countries can afford air conditioners so installed on mass air to air heat pumps aka air conditioners will be affordable how can they not be when much poorer countries like turkey have them everywhere.
Also heating is more important and effective for the reason you say it isn't
My home uses 30,000 units of gas my car less than 3,000 units of oil
Much more carbon saving to be had electrifying the heating than the car simply because most households use many more units for heating than they do for driving0 -
That's not what marginal generation means nor even closeScott in Fife, 2.9kwp pv SSW facing, 2.7kw Fronius inverter installed Jan 2012 - 14.3kwh Seplos Mason battery storage with Lux ac controller - Renault Zoe 40kwh, Corsa-e 50kwh, Zappi EV charger and Octopus Go0
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No
A typical gas boiler has a peak power supply of upto 24KW correct but That doesn't mean you need a 24KW electricity supply to replace the 24KW boiler
Several years ago our boiler failed just before Christmas leaving us with just the gas fire in the lounge for heat. Adding 4 x 3kWh & 2 x 2kWh fan heaters managed to keep the house at a reasonable temperature but with some rooms closed off.4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North LincsInstalled June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus & 3 x US2000C Batteries - 19.2kWh0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »Thought I'd comment on this as it is either a trick meant to mislead, or a complete failure to comprehend?
So, is 3.3% a small number, yes I suppose.
Is 3.3%pa a small number, no, not at all.
Is 3.3%pa everything, no, just the off-shore wind element.
So let's look at 3.3%pa over 10yrs roughly 33%?
I didn't say 3.3% was small I said it was significant but for most people a 25-30 year transition is not seen as at all fast.
But bear in mind this is the UK not many countries have the same amount of resources
The plan for Germany for 2010-2030 is just 2.3% a year that's everything wind solar biomass the lot. The UK is also lucky in that we plan/hope to import lots and lots of nuclear and hydropower from next door neighbors
As for the UK while we will add 33% wind we will lose most the old nukes especially if your hated HPC gets scrapped 2030 would be just 2.8% nuclear so 17% points lost. Even with HPC we are set to lose 9% points of nuclear that's 3-6 years of wind power install canceled out by closing the nukes
And it would have been a 20 year journey roughly form 2010-2030 to 'fix' the grid
A lucky country with lots of offshore wind, low electricity consumption and near three big useful net exporting grids. Not really repeatable worldwide. Especially the net importing clearly the planet can't net import electricity where would we get it from Mars? For Germany it's a 50 year program from 1995 to 2045 going from 4% to net near 100% that's more representative and realistic
Re the UK doing significant onshore wind or solar PV I think this looks unlikely and unnecessaryIs there any scaleability issues regarding RE, nope, none at all. If we want to accelerate deployment we can
We're not a dictatorship
Just ask the Germans how their recent grid expansion and onshore wind development is going
Hint, not too good people are protesting and succeeding at it so wind deployment is down grid expansion is resisted and the 2020 target is going to be missed. Just because there is a resources doesn't mean it's going to happen. Nuclear energy for all intents is limitless doesn't mean it was or can be successfully deployedespecially as costs are now approaching subsidy free, and the public awareness of both RE and AGW are growing rapidly.
They still require subsidy
More importantly you are talking about electricity Vs electricity
But a huge amount of our energy needs are NG for heating
2.7p a unit delivered to my home 92% efficiency in my boiler....
How the hell are you going to get wind power that cheap
The simple overheads of the grid and other functions is about 12p a unit even of electricity was free you'd have 12p or so at your home. Can you get 3 COP from air to air heat pumps during winter temps when they are required? I am doubtful but even so that's at beast about 5p for heat Vs 3p now or 70% more expensiveLastly, regarding the rather silly comment of off-shore wind and shallow waters, and ignoring the development of floating PV, which is going very well, can I remind folk of 'reality' again, and point out that whilst the UK has great off-shore wind potential, most countries aren't going down this route, and global calculations of RE generation always suggest PV as the main source, typically around 70%+ of global RE supply, and most countries can and will generate leccy from PV at far lower costs than the UK will from off-shore wind.
Yes in sunny locations PV is their offshore wind Equivalent
It will be cheap enough to displace a lot of FF electricity
But I wasn't saying there isn't enough space or RE potential
I was highlighting it's going to be slow. 50 years in the case of Germany and most other nations
25 years for the UK because we have lots of effective offshore wind and plan to be a big net importer and are a low electricity consumption nation.For those interested, be very careful when listening to comments about Germany and the rate of RE deployment v's CO2 reductions.
They are transitioning to RE at a very rapid rate, however, a lot of the RE generation is replacing nuclear generation, and they have increased leccy exports to Europe.
This graphic shows what they have achieved:
Not taking about CO2 emmissions but the rate at which the grid changed/will-change
1995 was 4% and 2030 they hope to be 65% that's 1.75% a year
If you say things are getting faster this is true, but by your own link they will be 40.25% renewables this year and hope to be 65% in 2030 that's 2.25% a year if they actually achieve their targetsObviously, as they start to run out of nuclear to displace, then their reductions on coal and lignite generation will accelerate. Again, German RE v's German CO2 reductions can be misleading if we don't look at the bigger, and long term picture of what they are doing and have achieved already.
Was not looking or stating co2 reductions but was talking about RE deployment on the grid
1995-2019 will have been 1.5% average
2019-2030 they plan to do 2.25% average
The story isn't over as in 2030 they are still 35% fossil in their grid
And they have yet to electrify heating or transport
When all is said and done this is going to be a 50+ year transition perhaps even closer to the 80 year mark0 -
Agreed, but ... I've had a look at our gas consumption & on the coldest days we use 220 kWh ... an average of 9.67kWh. The 9.67kWh isn't distributed evenly across the day either & the peak is about double that figure ... usually when the house is drawing peak load just to make matters worse.
Several years ago our boiler failed just before Christmas leaving us with just the gas fire in the lounge for heat. Adding 4 x 3kWh & 2 x 2kWh fan heaters managed to keep the house at a reasonable temperature but with some rooms closed off.
You need to fix your units
KWh is a unit of energy
KW is a unit of power
I'm not sure why or how you managed to use 220KWh of gas in a single day I'd suggest something is wrong with your recollection perhaps it is over two days use. I have a 6 bedroom solid wall 100 year semi home and I top out at about 200KWh and that's the peak days
That is an average 8.3KW of power
But that's gas you only need about 90% of that if using electricity so 7.5KW of electricity power would cover my heating needs
It doesn't matter that you use a kettle or do your cooking as you can set up even a semi smart heating system to not surpass X total amps. This means of the heating is pulling 8KW and you don't want to exceed 10KW in the home. You turn the 3KW kettle on the heating pulls back from 8KW to 7KW so the total does not surpass 10KW you've set
Anyway this is just not picking
Neither of us have typical heat demands
3KW would be perfectly fine for the vast majority of homes
This doesn't even mean they will use the full 3KW
Some smaller flats may only use 1KW average for heating
And we would hope a couple of air to air heat pumps, if Martyn propaganda of 3COP is correct, would reduce this 3KW for the average house to just 1KW. Or your or my 8KW to 2.7KW
I also envisage a transition period
For instance I could go on the agile octopus tarriff and buy a £10 smart plug and £15 heater
Set it up to only go on when prices are very low and there is excessive wind power
This way my home would be hybrid
Both natural gas and electricity
But only electricity for heating when there is excess
As more wind is deployed I'd have more hours of wind electricity and less hours of gas
So a controlled smart way to gradually concert from gas to electricity
Rather than all at once0 -
Agreed, but ... I've had a look at our gas consumption &
While I agree it won't be easy it's definitely not impossible
By the simple reality that there are indeed while countries which are electrically heated
They have no (or very limited) natural gas for heating
Norway is one such example
France is about mid way
They have millions more electricity heated homes vs the UK
I think it's something like 35% of their homes electricity heated mostly resistance heaters not hear pumps
They do consume a lot more electricity add have a bigger grid to handle it
And they consume a LOT less natural gas as a result
We won't go from near zero to 100% like Norway
But we will go towards France levels of electrification of heating and then beyond
Like with the grid it's likely a 30-60 year transition0
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