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  • EricMears
    EricMears Posts: 3,304 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Hi Eric, here I'll try to explain again.

    The comment by GA was: . . . .
    Afraid I didn't see the full context of your query - I just answered the one point i.e. what does a 3.3% increase get you after 10 years.
    NE Derbyshire.4kWp S Facing 17.5deg slope (dormer roof).24kWh of Pylontech batteries with Lux controller BEV : Hyundai Ioniq5
  • 1961Nick
    1961Nick Posts: 2,107 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    EricMears wrote: »
    Never said 3.3% p.a. ?
    I agree ... 3.3%pa suggests compounding - if you bought a 5 year ISA @ 3.3% you'd be pretty miffed if it only paid 3.3% on the principal each year.

    "33% over 10 years" would better reflect the assertion in this instance.
    4kWp (black/black) - Sofar Inverter - SSE(141°) - 30° pitch - North Lincs
    Installed June 2013 - PVGIS = 3400
    Sofar ME3000SP Inverter & 5 x Pylontech US2000B Plus & 3 x US2000C Batteries - 19.2kWh
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    Anyway it's good news the UK wind target for 2030 if met would mean wind power in the UK both onshore and offshore is about 50% of electricity an impressive figure and nuclear will be about 10% and hydro+PV will be about 10% too

    Leaving 30% to come from imports and NG which might be about 50/50

    That will take the grid to about 60g/KWh in 2030 which is a successful heavy decarb of the grid


    Next big challenge is heating

    The 2025 new build boiler ban should really have started this year this should be brought forward to 2021 that might help avoid 600,000 homes connecting a gas boiler in the first place.

    If agile type tarriffs come into existence people could install air to air heat pumps and run them off cheaper 20h a day electricity and use their gas boiler for the peak 4h. A hybrid system which I've always pushed. Even now the agile tariff is below 10p most the non peak 4h and hopefully as the grid expands as the interconntors come online and as more wind is deployed this below 10p most the time might become below 8p most the time and allow economic operation of air to air heat pumps Vs cheap NG
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 15,369 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    EricMears wrote: »
    Afraid I didn't see the full context of your query - I just answered the one point i.e. what does a 3.3% increase get you after 10 years.

    Thanks, I hoped that would clear this up.

    Now, and just for fun, 3.3%pa for 10yrs (as we are on a MSE site) doesn't actually mean compounded. You could of course assume it's compounded, or assume it's simple interest, but of course, unless it's stated, those choices will of course remain assumptions.

    Reading financial documents/brochures for my father when he's looking to invest/re-invest his monies it's noticeable that these details need checking closely.

    A policy that states it will pay 3.3% pa on the initial investment for 10yrs, in big print on the cover, might be simple, or compounded, interest repaid annually, or re-invested etc etc.. With all options changing the actual 10yr total return.

    On a £1,000 investment, it might mean a £1,033 return at year 10, with £33 annual payouts in the previous 9yrs. Or £1,330 payout in year 10, or somewhere in the region of £1,384 paid out in year 10 if compounded.

    Sorry for the waffle. :o
    Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • ABrass
    ABrass Posts: 1,005 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts Name Dropper
    This article piqued my interest.

    Apparently the efficiency of fossil fuels is much lower than generally thought due to losses in the production and transport processes. The Energy return on investment, or EROI, is closer to 5:1 than 30:1 and dropping. It'd be a surprise if those losses don't also have a matching increase in carbon costs.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-019-0425-z
    8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    A problem with BEV chargers is that if you have too many customers on a particular tarriff it can overwhelm the grid at certain times

    Imagine just 1 million BEVs (just 3% of UK cars) if they all start charging at once at 00:30AM at 7KW rate with that would be a massive instant 8GW spike at 00:30AM

    Even if a person has only driven just 4 miles that day and needs to top up just 1KWh the charger will pull the full 7KW at 00:30 of set to go on at that time

    There needs to be a way to charge the cars evenly over night rather than them all pulling max power at the same time. But I don't think smart internet chargers are a good idea they introduce a way to crash the grid if someone hacks the chargers which will eventually happen

    Perhaps simply limiting charger speeds to 1KW would be a solution
    Sounds terrible but most people sleep 8h and are at home even longer so that's still a minimum 8KWh charge = 32 miles per night which more than covers the 20 mile per day average UK distance

    Or dual speed chargers. 1KW rate for cheap 5p/KWh electricity and 7KW rate for 10p/KWh pick your choice

    Or perhaps the suppliers should have different cheap time rates for each batch of customers
    So place 5% of your customers on say 00:00 to 04:00 cheap rate
    5% on 00:15 to 04:15
    5% on 00:30 to 04:30
    5% on 00:45 to 04:45
    Etc

    Or of course you can internet connect the chargers and have it controlled centrally somewhere so charge rate can be controlled by the grid but this is a big national risk which I think would be very dangerous to do


    When if BEVs become even mildly common (say 3% of the stock) this will start to be a major issue that will need to have a fix


    Before anyone say... Norway... They are at about 8% of stock of cars BEV
    But Norway grid is 5x as powerful per capita as the UK grid (because they have no gas grid their electricity grid and consumption is ~5x UK) so any EV charging problems are 1/5th as severe
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    I think it's likely future tarriffs will be a band of charges
    Something like The 8h of night rate cheapest at perhaps 6p
    The 4h of peak the most expensive at perhaps 25p
    And the 12h between those at 15p

    This gives 8 hours of low prices to charge with and upto 12h medium prices too

    Chargers could be variable speed
    When you plug in it assumes you will be charging for 8 hours
    Calculates energy needed and charges at the rate such that you are full in 8h
    If you need 8KWh charge you get 1KW rate
    If you need 40KWh charge you get 5KW rate
    If you need just 0.8KWh charge you get 0.1KW rate
    With ability to override max charge rate for a small additional fee

    This way all charging would be spread out over 8h (10pm to 6am)
    Average charge rate would be just 600 Watts
    So a million cars would only add 0.6GW to the grid over 8h
    Rather than 7-8GW if they all started at once

    You could even charge 10 million EVs over an 8 hour period and you'd only add 6-7GW to the 10PM to 6AM demand which is perfectly fine
  • JKenH
    JKenH Posts: 5,117 Forumite
    Sixth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    GreatApe wrote: »
    A problem with BEV chargers is that if you have too many customers on a particular tarriff it can overwhelm the grid at certain times

    Imagine just 1 million BEVs (just 3% of UK cars) if they all start charging at once at 00:30AM at 7KW rate with that would be a massive instant 8GW spike at 00:30AM

    Even if a person has only driven just 4 miles that day and needs to top up just 1KWh the charger will pull the full 7KW at 00:30 of set to go on at that time

    There needs to be a way to charge the cars evenly over night rather than them all pulling max power at the same time.

    That’s quite a change of position as when I raised this
    JKenH wrote: »
    I wonder if there are enough Octopus Go customers, yet, to cause a spike when they start charging at 00.30? My car starts to charge at 00.40, four minutes after I think (but am never outside watching the meter to check) my E7 tariff kicks in. Eventually that sudden switch on will need to be smoothed out.

    you responded
    GreatApe wrote: »
    During that time of night demand is falling by more than about 1GW/hr so it wouldn't be a spike up but it would be a slowing of the 'spike down' as most people turn things off and go to bed.

    It's not an issue anytime soon

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76597174#Comment_76597174
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, ex Nissan Leaf owner)
  • GreatApe
    GreatApe Posts: 4,452 Forumite
    JKenH wrote: »
    That’s quite a change of position as when I raised this

    you responded

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76597174#Comment_76597174

    I did type 'It's not an issue anytime soon'......It's a question of scale

    150,000 cars would be fine it would just arrest the falling demand for half an hour
    300,000 cars would be noticeable but no concern
    600,000 cars would be possible to handle but would probably require the UK pumped hydropower to kick in for half an hour or more
    1,200,000 cars or more would be the start of problems that need some level of solutions
    2,400,000 cars would definitely need solutions

    We aren't going to see 2.4m BEVs on UK roads anytime soon!
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 15,369 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Nothing new, but perhaps worth repeating the simple points to help hammer them home for the hard of thinking:

    Is It True That A Tesla Creates More Pollution Than A Conventional Car?
    This question gets asked a lot: “Is it true that a Tesla creates more pollution than a conventional car?” It is often asked without any real interest in the answer, but more as a statement that this might be a possibility. It is part of the propaganda against electric vehicles (EVs), and all things green in general. The question is like a fishing expedition: The hook is cast. The intended catch is negative thoughts in people’s minds, and hundreds of negative answers by all those antagonistic to EVs and any measures to combat climate change.
    We need to move electricity generation to 100% renewables, and also move to all-electric homes and transport. Considerations of what advantages might or might not exist in the interim are not particularly relevant. We just need to get there as soon as possible. Most nations are moving away from coal, are using less polluting and more efficient gas in the interim, and are building renewable energy plants at a steady rate. Even if it wasn’t an entirely fallacious argument that all the pollution is moved from the tailpipe to the smoke stack, the solution would be to stop generating electricity from dirty coal (and no, there is no such thing as “clean” coal) for transportation.

    All ICE vehicles need to be taken off the road and replaced by electric as soon as possible.

    All fossil-fuelled power stations need to be replaced by a new generation from renewable energy very soon.
    Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 20kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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