Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

zeupater

shinytop said:

zeupater said:

michaels said:

zeupater said:

Martyn1981 said:

Totally agree GC. For years I've been thinking exactly the same, especially when we're told that Toyota (and similar) will be fine for a decade+ as they can shift their HEV and PHEV sales to new markets, poorer countries etc etc..

I think the problem with that argument was always the failure to appreciate the second part you point out - cheap Chinese BEV's. This isn't meant to be derogatory about some nations, but they aren't at the levels for vehicle standards that Europe/US are, so the availability of super cheap and basic BEV's, will be fine. These are BEV's that legacy auto simply don't build, and would have to go head to head with China, if they chose too.

That's one of the reasons why I always get somewhat overexcited posting articles about cheap/simple BEV's emerging in Africa and Asia.
.....

Hi

Careful what you're saying Mart .... with the authoritarian change to 20mph speed limits in Wales there's a good chance that the number of poorer countries will soon be increasing ... ... mind though, with the speed reduction making the roads themselves inherently safer, there's a good argument that the country could afford to relax their local NCAP safety requirements, after all, with the chances of being involved in a 31mph collision being drastically reduced why not re-evaluate the safety rating test to (say) 20mph and therefore allow a home-grown manufacturing industry for cheaper BEVs to thrive ....   

.... mind though, there's two conflicting outcomes from applying the approach ... firstly the downside, the BEVs will likely not conform to the safety requirements of most nearby countries (  ), this reducing the opportunities for export and 'international' travel (eg England etc) but the upside is that in limiting the opportunity for long distance journeys you're effectively removing the need for large capacity battery packs ... Wales isn't all that big and most will get kinda bored driving anywhere at <20mph on a regular basis, so would a couple of PP3s for the odd trip to the supermarket do the job ? ... ....

 

HTH - Z (Former regular visitor and contributor to the Welsh economy ...  )

New road schemes to improve safety get the go ahead if the cost per life saved is less than £2m.  This scheme the cost per life saved is £20m.  Hmmm

Hi

Chances are that for the ~10 lives saved per year that the scheme claims as a goal the total project & economic liabilities are well in excess of £200million, an equivalent of around 17p per head of the Welsh population per day, so if average economic activity is reduced by something akin to not being bothered to take just one journey in which £10 is spent every other month, then the anticipated budget is blown. Putting things in context, the target of 10 should be considered statistically insignificant when measured against an average of well in excess of 1000 Welsh road accident deaths/year, so it's effectively impossible to make any claims of success until you have many years of data to analyse, however, in the meantime there'll be incremental levels of vehicle safety improvements to muddy the analytical waters ....

The issue is that although economic impact should have been considered, the figures suggest that it's not the case and a purely myopic approach has been utilised within the justification ...

HTH - Z (Should Welsh roads all be ripped up and everyone expected to walk everywhere ? ...  )

zeupater said:

michaels said:

zeupater said:

Martyn1981 said:

Totally agree GC. For years I've been thinking exactly the same, especially when we're told that Toyota (and similar) will be fine for a decade+ as they can shift their HEV and PHEV sales to new markets, poorer countries etc etc..

I think the problem with that argument was always the failure to appreciate the second part you point out - cheap Chinese BEV's. This isn't meant to be derogatory about some nations, but they aren't at the levels for vehicle standards that Europe/US are, so the availability of super cheap and basic BEV's, will be fine. These are BEV's that legacy auto simply don't build, and would have to go head to head with China, if they chose too.

That's one of the reasons why I always get somewhat overexcited posting articles about cheap/simple BEV's emerging in Africa and Asia.
.....

Hi

Careful what you're saying Mart .... with the authoritarian change to 20mph speed limits in Wales there's a good chance that the number of poorer countries will soon be increasing ... ... mind though, with the speed reduction making the roads themselves inherently safer, there's a good argument that the country could afford to relax their local NCAP safety requirements, after all, with the chances of being involved in a 31mph collision being drastically reduced why not re-evaluate the safety rating test to (say) 20mph and therefore allow a home-grown manufacturing industry for cheaper BEVs to thrive ....   

.... mind though, there's two conflicting outcomes from applying the approach ... firstly the downside, the BEVs will likely not conform to the safety requirements of most nearby countries (  ), this reducing the opportunities for export and 'international' travel (eg England etc) but the upside is that in limiting the opportunity for long distance journeys you're effectively removing the need for large capacity battery packs ... Wales isn't all that big and most will get kinda bored driving anywhere at <20mph on a regular basis, so would a couple of PP3s for the odd trip to the supermarket do the job ? ... ....

 

HTH - Z (Former regular visitor and contributor to the Welsh economy ...  )

New road schemes to improve safety get the go ahead if the cost per life saved is less than £2m.  This scheme the cost per life saved is £20m.  Hmmm

Hi

Chances are that for the ~10 lives saved per year that the scheme claims as a goal the total project & economic liabilities are well in excess of £200million, an equivalent of around 17p per head of the Welsh population per day, so if average economic activity is reduced by something akin to not being bothered to take just one journey in which £10 is spent every other month, then the anticipated budget is blown. Putting things in context, the target of 10 should be considered statistically insignificant when measured against an average of well in excess of 1000 Welsh road accident deaths/year, so it's effectively impossible to make any claims of success until you have many years of data to analyse, however, in the meantime there'll be incremental levels of vehicle safety improvements to muddy the analytical waters ....

The issue is that although economic impact should have been considered, the figures suggest that it's not the case and a purely myopic approach has been utilised within the justification ...

HTH - Z (Should Welsh roads all be ripped up and everyone expected to walk everywhere ? ...  )

I don't think there are 1000 road deaths pa in Wales.  There are less than 2000 in the whole of the UK.  Maybe you mean KSI rather than dead?

Hi

Apologies, you're right, meant to relate to deaths & serious injuries (KSI) as per the report I checked for details ( https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/statistics-and-research/2023-06/reported-road-casualties-2022-681.pdf ), however, this doesn't change the position that this will have huge impact on both societal and economic grounds for little gain ... why? ...

... So, within the referenced report, Figure 9 provides a breakdown of reported casualties by speed limit in force at the scene .... note that there is absolutely no data provided as to whether the accident was assessed to be due to speeding, and this is a highly important necessity when analysing potential outcomes from the changes that were proposed, effectively a fundamental flaw in the logic ... those that drive at 50mph in a 30 zone are probably just as likely to do so if the limit is 20 ... politicians and academics need to realise that it's not the establishment and passing of law that makes a difference, it's the will & ability to invest in the act of enforcement of the laws that they pass that delivers the changes they seek - if no-one is actively enforcing a 30mph limit, what real effect is there of changing the number on a sign with a red circle around it?

Looking at the report you can immediately see what's behind the measures ... the proportion of serious and fatal casualties measured against total injuries within each zone are ... 20mph:17.6% / 30mph:20% / 40mph:25.1% / 50mph:24.6% .... the thinking behind the proposal therefore would be to have more accidents happen in the 20mph zones and therefore decrease the KSI toll .... however, what's missed is that 20mph zones are specifically hazard related, so would a motorist inclined to speed be more likely to adjust to the conditions anyway? ... that's a very important point of logic which has likely been overlooked! ....

So, what's the outcome? .... I suggest that having spent money on implementation, there'll be considerable political & reputational risk linked to reversing the policy in the short term so the position will be one of 'wait & see'. After a few years of poor measured outcomes there'll be focus on economic harm and this will show in welsh polls, after which central pressure will be applied by national party leadership as well as directly from Westminster, probably with the UK Government offering to fund the reversal project because the Welsh economy has performed below the UK average .... 

Mark Drakeford & the Welsh Labour Party won't pick up the tab for their experiment, neither will the UK Labour party as a whole for not accepting any form of control responsibility over their Welsh colleagues, probably because they see them as running a 'limited liability lab' for their future national policies .... no, the cost for the reversing the ideological experiment, just like cost of the cost of implementing it, will be socialised - we'll all pay ... yet again!

HTH - Z 

zeupater

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

Hiya GC, I saw this article, and one of the charts jumped out at me, as it relates to your comment above, regarding small and medium BEV prices (v's ICEV's). Just to be clear/honest, 2026 seems a bit early to me, for price parity in Europe. I hope it's right, but perhaps 2027/28 may be slightly safer bets? [However - I'd also suggest that Tesla's today, are price comparable to equivalent ICEV's from BMW and similar, in the large and SUV segments. But I appreciate that's only one company, not a broad average, so the 2025 estimate may be fairer.]

The EV Revolution In 5 Charts

EV sales growth is on an S-curve, and one country after another is taking a similar path. In broad terms it is taking about six years for countries to go from 1 percent to 10 percent market share and then another six years or so for leading countries to get to 80 percent. Globally, nearly one in five car sales in 2023 will be an EV, up from one in ten two years ago.

Hi

I tend to agree with GC ... It's a case of what and when a comparison is done ...

take for example the chart above ... it claims to represent sticker price parity, but what's missing is that ICE car sticker prices have been increasing well beyond justification for more than a decade, a period where (apart from the last few years) inflationary pressures were historically low & engineering innovation really had little impact on vehicle build or typical specification ... the larger changes to standard specification which impacted prices (alloy wheels, sunroof, electric windows, air conditioning, ABS, sat nav ... etc) would have happened well before the period in question ....

So, let's look at a report made before the pandemic set in .... In 2018, HPI analysed the market ( https://www.hpi.co.uk/content/car-valuations/new-car-prices-rise-38-last-decade/# ) and reported that ...

....

Analysis by automotive data experts cap hpi has revealed the average price of a new car has risen 38% over the last decade.

The average offered price of cars has increased from £24,383 in February 2008 to £33,559 in February 2018.

The experts argue that while cars sold today are fitted with much more technology, from satellite navigation to self-parking, the increased cost is not always reflected in the price rise ....

Over the past decade I've also read plenty of articles that point to the auto-makers no longer being sensitive to sticker prices, being mode focussed on the PCP & finance side of things .... a number of manufacturers actually make more out of their finance arm than from manufacturing, so it doesn't matter what the list price is, it's the monthly cost of 'lease' that drives the marketing. 

So, think about it ... the customer goes into the dealership and has interest in a car with a sticker price of (say) £15k with a monthly financed cost offer of (say) £299 then goes into a different dealership where a sticker price of £20k is available at the same £299/month, is there a possible marketing ploy being employed? .... sticker prices no longer represent the price of the vehicle, they're more related to establishing a relative value to the consumer to encourage potential 'purchaser' to move away from the historical ownership model to simply buying a contracted service, not physical goods ... if you're going into a showroom with cash, be prepared to haggle hard because you're now the rare type of customer that they intend to fleece for as much as they can get away with, especially in pandemic/post pandemic conditions where many dealerships are reporting new car price margin increases of ~60% compared to what had previously been typical ... 

Price parity should be true parity, not a comparison to what, for a multitude of reasons, is in effect a temporarily or artificially (or both!) inflated position ... we should therefore be careful to understand what we're being told!

HTH - Z ...

Grumpy_chap

Coastalwatch said:

A visit to Farnborough for the Fully Charged show in late April saw lots of EV demonstrators to take for a spin, sadly no Vivaro’s, but couldn’t resist taking an M3 out for a jolly and hopefully impress my mate with it’s acceleration, albeit 0-30 or 50 as that was mostly the route the Satnav guided us along. Chatted with an assistant at the close and learned one could be available in a week if ordered today!  

A few weeks later and in a follow up to the test drive a mail from Tesla arrived with a £4k off incentive for any purchases prior to end of June.

 

Your post confused me initially by simply referencing "taking out an M3".  I thought you were referring to the BMW. 

The Tesla pricing for the June quarter-end were very keen.  Tesla did seem to have a pattern of heavy discounts in the final few weeks of quarter end.  The discounts in September were not as keen.

Martyn has commented on price-parity. This seems very odd in that the new entrants (EV-only manufacturers) seem to be able to offer close to price-parity for equivalent ICE cars.  That is, in part, possibly only down to legacy auto cutting the discounts on ICE models - that may be a state that cannot be sustained.  The legacy manufacturers, including the more recent entrants such as Kia / Hyundai, simply seem unable or unwilling to aim for price-parity.  I am unsure whether it is possible to find out whether the inflated prices for EVs are down to ability to price or willingness to price.

Martyn1981

Z & GC, yep totally agree that price parity is a very tricky thing to nail down. Not trying to be negative by questioning the 2026 date for small and medium segment cars, I hope it's correct and fair, it just seems a smidge early to me.  But, despite my optimism for cleaner, greener tech, I was surprised how fast PV and offshore wind got cheap in the UK, so my past record is not great.    Totally admit, that like most humans, I struggle to forsee exponential changes (damn this linear mind!). But that's OK as reality almost always beats my expectations.

I thought this chart was an excellent example, with the 2021 forecast pretty much showing a linear growth based on historical growth, to ~17% penetration in 2030, but the reality of exponential growth, making a total mockery of it. Even the doubling to ~35% in just two years, is clearly a vast under-prediction already. Boy this transport revolution is fun.



I suspect the vicious circle, of falling sales and the many negatives that that will bring, will bring ICEV prices up, perhaps to meet the falling prices of BEV's. But it is really interesting, as GC points out, that the BEV only manufacturers seem to be doing better.

Have to say I'm getting pretty excited about the next 5yrs, as it looks like the major shift to BEV's being the majority of sales, worldwide, is likely to happen, especially with the speed of change in China, and the size of its automotive market. I'd guess at the UK reaching 50% PEV's in 2025/26, and 50% BEV's perhaps a year later.


Bus sales seem to be shifting even faster to BEV's now, which is excellent news. And in the US there's an event called 'Run on Less' which evaluates fuel efficiency for trucks. This has been running for a week already, and this year there are some Tesla semi trucks taking part (being monitored as they go about their work). Fun to see that on several days, the Tesla's have clocked up quite impressive stats, including driving over 800 miles in a single day whilst making 3 and 5 (different days) deliveries.

Hopefully there will be a good summary of the Run on Less event when it concludes for this year.


Dare I say all good news, especially the price parity issue?

JKenH

Guardian opinion piece on the 20 mph limit in Wales - “If elected, Labour should use this experience to adopt similar measures for the whole of the UK”

Dear drivers, steady as you go at 20mph. And welcome to the future

A new speed limit in Wales is the latest policy intended to prioritise people’s needs over cars. I believe that’s the way to go.

Of course, there is a slight contradiction within this set of policies, which opponents are all too quick to point out. Slowing down traffic may lead to a small increase in pollution unless people divert to walking and cycling, which it will encourage, or use electric cars. But taken together, reducing speed and car use will make residential neighbourhoods cleaner, quieter and less congested. 

The negatives, for the most part, seem trivial. Taking a longer way round to visit your grandmother may be a pain, but is it really worth the extreme anger it seems to elicit?

It is not a coincidence that it is in Wales that the 20mph speed limit has been adopted. The Labour-controlled Welsh government has a series of wellbeing goals enshrined in legislation that provide a framework for such policies. There is now talk of similar 20mph schemes in Scotland and Northern Ireland. If elected, Labour should use this experience to adopt similar measures for the whole of the UK, and show the same courage Drakeford has done.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/20/dear-drivers-steady-as-you-go-at-20mph-and-welcome-to-the-future

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

Z & GC, yep totally agree that price parity is a very tricky thing to nail down. Not trying to be negative by questioning the 2026 date for small and medium segment cars, I hope it's correct and fair, it just seems a smidge early to me.  But, despite my optimism for cleaner, greener tech, I was surprised how fast PV and offshore wind got cheap in the UK, so my past record is not great.    Totally admit, that like most humans, I struggle to forsee exponential changes (damn this linear mind!). But that's OK as reality almost beats my expectations.

I thought this chart was an excellent example, with the 2021 forecast pretty much showing a linear growth based on historical growth, to ~17% penetration in 2030, but the reality of exponential growth, making a total mockery of it. Even the doubling to ~35% in just two years, is clearly a vast under-prediction already. Boy this transport revolution is fun.



I suspect the vicious circle, of falling sales and the many negatives that that will bring, will bring ICEV prices up, perhaps to meet the falling prices of BEV's. But it is really interesting, as GC points out, that the BEV only manufacturers seem to be doing better.

Have to say I'm getting pretty excited about the next 5yrs, as it looks like the major shift to BEV's being the majority of sales, worldwide, is likely to happen, especially with the speed of change in China, and the size of its automotive market. I'd guess at the UK reaching 50% PEV's in 2025/26, and 50% BEV's perhaps a year later.


Bus sales seem to be shifting even faster to BEV's now, which is excellent news. And in the US there's an event called 'Run on Less' which evaluates fuel efficiency for trucks. This has been running for a week already, and this year there are some Tesla semi trucks taking part (being monitored as they go about their work). Fun to see that on several days, the Tesla's have clocked up quite impressive stats, including driving over 800 miles in a single day whilst making 3 and 5 (different days) deliveries.

Hopefully there will be a good summary of the Run on Less event when it concludes for this year.


Dare I say all good news, especially the price parity issue?

What is driving Chinese EV exports and their price competitiveness?

China produces EVs more cheaply than anywhere else.

That is mainly due to Beijing's decade-old industry promotion policy of incentives and subsidies that enabled China to become the world's biggest EV market and control the global EV supply chain, including raw materials.

In June, China unveiled a package of tax breaks worth 520 billion yuan ($72 billion) over four years aimed at boosting sales of EVs and other green cars.

Many local authorities continue to offer separate aid or tax rebates to attract manufacturing investment, as well as consumer subsidies. These have grown in recent years as the economy slows.

The EU said its investigation targets a broad range of possible unfair subsidies, from prices for raw materials and batteries, to preferential lending or cheap provision of land.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-is-driving-chinese-ev-exports-their-price-competitiveness-2023-09-14/

Coastalwatch

Grumpy_chap said:

Coastalwatch said:

A visit to Farnborough for the Fully Charged show in late April saw lots of EV demonstrators to take for a spin, sadly no Vivaro’s, but couldn’t resist taking an M3 out for a jolly and hopefully impress my mate with it’s acceleration, albeit 0-30 or 50 as that was mostly the route the Satnav guided us along. Chatted with an assistant at the close and learned one could be available in a week if ordered today!  

A few weeks later and in a follow up to the test drive a mail from Tesla arrived with a £4k off incentive for any purchases prior to end of June.

 

Your post confused me initially by simply referencing "taking out an M3".  I thought you were referring to the BMW. 

The Tesla pricing for the June quarter-end were very keen.  Tesla did seem to have a pattern of heavy discounts in the final few weeks of quarter end.  The discounts in September were not as keen.

Martyn has commented on price-parity. This seems very odd in that the new entrants (EV-only manufacturers) seem to be able to offer close to price-parity for equivalent ICE cars.  That is, in part, possibly only down to legacy auto cutting the discounts on ICE models - that may be a state that cannot be sustained.  The legacy manufacturers, including the more recent entrants such as Kia / Hyundai, simply seem unable or unwilling to aim for price-parity.  I am unsure whether it is possible to find out whether the inflated prices for EVs are down to ability to price or willingness to price.

Forgive my naivety GC, I wasn't aware of the BMW version, I did however wonder if my reference might be confused with the motorway M3 also mentioned in the passage.

Regarding price parity I was surprised when a friend told me recently he was quoted £18k for replacing his ageing i10 with a new one recently! I understand that lower spec models can start around the £15k mark so possibly not too far away from the cost of EV models available from China.

shinytop

I had thought, naively, that price parity meant EVs getting cheaper to match the lower price of ICEvs.  Looks like I was wrong. 

zeupater

JKenH said:

....

What is driving Chinese EV exports and their price competitiveness?

China produces EVs more cheaply than anywhere else.

That is mainly due to Beijing's decade-old industry promotion policy of incentives and subsidies that enabled China to become the world's biggest EV market and control the global EV supply chain, including raw materials.

In June, China unveiled a package of tax breaks worth 520 billion yuan ($72 billion) over four years aimed at boosting sales of EVs and other green cars.

Many local authorities continue to offer separate aid or tax rebates to attract manufacturing investment, as well as consumer subsidies. These have grown in recent years as the economy slows.

The EU said its investigation targets a broad range of possible unfair subsidies, from prices for raw materials and batteries, to preferential lending or cheap provision of land.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-is-driving-chinese-ev-exports-their-price-competitiveness-2023-09-14/

Hi,

Isn't it possible that the EU, whilst maintaining a thin veil of supporting free trade, is simply employing it's well known position of market protectionism? ... it's not as if the EU hasn't directly sponsored or allowed member states to incentivise the uptake of EVs through direct and indirect subsidy ... 

I take particular attention to ... "The EU said its investigation targets a broad range of possible unfair subsidies, from prices for raw materials and batteries, to preferential lending or cheap provision of land." ... seeing that the scope of the investigation should logically be widened beyond that related to China and include all global sources ... including the EU themselves! ... after-all, that's the fair way to properly address unfairness - isn't it?!

"Woe is me, my subsidies are being matched - they must be called out for cheating and stopped - I'm the only one allowed to cheat in this game!" .... oddly, they don't seem to recognise the level of hypocrisy they portray is open for all to see ... careful what you wish for EU, it may come home to roost!

HTH - Z

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

What is driving Chinese EV exports and their price competitiveness?

China produces EVs more cheaply than anywhere else.

That is mainly due to Beijing's decade-old industry promotion policy of incentives and subsidies 

AIUI, USA EV manufacturers also enjoy some certain incentives / tax breaks at the moment.  They have made big news.  I have no idea whether the USA tax breaks (IRA - is that what the programme is called?) are similar in magnitude to the incentives available in China.

I suppose the Chinese brands also benefit from lower labour rates.

Should Japan, Europe, UK, Korea, etc. subsidise their EV car industry in the same way?
Do these manufacturers receive subsidies in any case and managed to keep the news mostly below the radar?

It would seem a folly if EV production globally is to grow, but only ever on the back of subsidies from whichever country happens to be hosting the manufacturing facility.  The same outcome could be achieved if there were simply no subsidies.