Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

Coastalwatch

Possibly world’s largest lithium deposits found in the USA

https://www.electrive.com/2023/09/14/possibly-worlds-largest-lithium-deposits-found-in-the-usa/

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

Yep, a long way to go for the smaller segment cars. I think the hope was that price parity might be reached in Europe somewhere around 2027, but it's a loose date, I'm sure I've seen earlier and later, and that may be an average for all cars. Battery cost reductions could be ~£1k+ per car over the next few years

Hopefully by 2025, leccy prices will be more normal, as Europe continues to reduce gas consumption. But I don't know what normal will be, given the high inflationary pressures pushing up all of the associated costs. Maybe 20p/kWh dayrate.

Was thinking that owners might save £500pa on fuel, but could be better. Using that 20p/kWh as an average for smaller cars (allowing for many, hopefully being charged far cheaper over night), then for smaller cars, with smaller batts, that should be a net 5p/mile cost (hopefully 5m/kWh gross when driving). Petrol at £7gall, and assuming an efficient 50mpg (maybe 40mpg for city driving is fairer?), would be 14p/mile. So over 7,000 miles, that's an annual saving of £630.

Hopefully that makes the BEV cheaper to run, after cost difference. But the MG range are already showing good price comparisons.

So many issues though at the moment, so the variables could go in all directions. Fingers crossed that many will be able to charge on a cheap rate of 10p or less, so 2.5p/mile, then the saving becomes £805. But 7,000 miles may be a high average for smaller city cars .... again, so many variables, just guessing away now.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

Yep, a long way to go for the smaller segment cars. I think the hope was that price parity might be reached in Europe somewhere around 2027, but it's a loose date, I'm sure I've seen earlier and later, and that may be an average for all cars. Battery cost reductions could be ~£1k+ per car over the next few years

Hopefully by 2025, leccy prices will be more normal, as Europe continues to reduce gas consumption. But I don't know what normal will be, given the high inflationary pressures pushing up all of the associated costs. Maybe 20p/kWh dayrate.

Was thinking that owners might save £500pa on fuel, but could be better. Using that 20p/kWh as an average for smaller cars (allowing for many, hopefully being charged far cheaper over night), then for smaller cars, with smaller batts, that should be a net 5p/mile cost (hopefully 5m/kWh gross when driving). Petrol at £7gall, and assuming an efficient 50mpg (maybe 40mpg for city driving is fairer?), would be 14p/mile. So over 7,000 miles, that's an annual saving of £630.

Hopefully that makes the BEV cheaper to run, after cost difference. But the MG range are already showing good price comparisons.

So many issues though at the moment, so the variables could go in all directions. Fingers crossed that many will be able to charge on a cheap rate of 10p or less, so 2.5p/mile, then the saving becomes £805. But 7,000 miles may be a high average for smaller city cars .... again, so many variables, just guessing away now.

It'll be interesting to see what Tesla have planned for their new plant in Mexico. It's certain to be a smaller vehicle & Tesla could go all out to break the $20,000 dollar barrier for the entry level model. Judging by the efficiency of the current RWD long range Model 3 & the improvements coming with Highland, a smaller model could achieve over 6 miles/kWh. A 250 mile range would then only require a 40kWh battery. The weight could be as low as 1200kg  based on the weight of the current Model 3.

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

Yep, a long way to go for the smaller segment cars. I think the hope was that price parity might be reached in Europe somewhere around 2027, but it's a loose date, I'm sure I've seen earlier and later, and that may be an average for all cars. Battery cost reductions could be ~£1k+ per car over the next few years

Hopefully by 2025, leccy prices will be more normal, as Europe continues to reduce gas consumption. But I don't know what normal will be, given the high inflationary pressures pushing up all of the associated costs. Maybe 20p/kWh dayrate.

Was thinking that owners might save £500pa on fuel, but could be better. Using that 20p/kWh as an average for smaller cars (allowing for many, hopefully being charged far cheaper over night), then for smaller cars, with smaller batts, that should be a net 5p/mile cost (hopefully 5m/kWh gross when driving). Petrol at £7gall, and assuming an efficient 50mpg (maybe 40mpg for city driving is fairer?), would be 14p/mile. So over 7,000 miles, that's an annual saving of £630.

Hopefully that makes the BEV cheaper to run, after cost difference. But the MG range are already showing good price comparisons.

So many issues though at the moment, so the variables could go in all directions. Fingers crossed that many will be able to charge on a cheap rate of 10p or less, so 2.5p/mile, then the saving becomes £805. But 7,000 miles may be a high average for smaller city cars .... again, so many variables, just guessing away now.

It'll be interesting to see what Tesla have planned for their new plant in Mexico. It's certain to be a smaller vehicle & Tesla could go all out to break the $20,000 dollar barrier for the entry level model. Judging by the efficiency of the current RWD long range Model 3 & the improvements coming with Highland, a smaller model could achieve over 6 miles/kWh. A 250 mile range would then only require a 40kWh battery. The weight could be as low as 1200kg  based on the weight of the current Model 3.

Funny you should say that, as I've been pondering weights too. The Zoe 50kWh is about 1,500kg, which may be a rough starting target, that I think many will beat (easily?) in the future. Obviously different manufacturers seem to have different skills regarding weight - comparable Leafs, MG MG4s and Tesla 3's are around 1,700kg, but the ID3 starts at over 1,800kg. VW do seem to have a weight problem, as their ID5 starts at around 2,050kg, whilst the Model Y starts at 1,900kg. But the Y is a bit larger, and has twice the boot space of the ID5 if you include the frunk.

This will be a fun decade as we see BEV's continue to improve in all ways, batts, weight, price etc.. And in fairness to VWG their Trinity platform project does sound promising, they just need to get on with it asap.

Magnitio

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Potentially good news for manufacturers and buyers. Prediction that smaller BEV's will be profitable for European manufacturers by 2025. Study suggests that a €25k BEV with 150-180mile range would boost the number of people planning to buy a BEV today, from 25% to 35%.

€25,000 Small Electric Cars On Track To Be Profitable By 2025!

I'm not sure it is that good news - "B" segment I think means Fiesta and equivalent.
£25k is a lot for a Fiesta.
Up until COVID, £25k would have got a Mondeo.

You can already buy a Vauxhall Corsa for less than £20k with a range of over 200 miles. MG4, Peugeot 208, Fiat 500e, MG ZS, Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe and Vauxhall Mokka are also available under £25k. There are some large discounts to be had.

Martyn1981

That pesky 'S' curve and exponential growth is leading to ever higher estimates for BEV sales this decade. This article has a range of 62% to 86% for BEV car sales by 2030.

EVs To Surpass ⅔ Of Global Car Sales By 2030, Putting At Risk Nearly Half Of Oil Demand

Global EV sales are on track to meet or outpace even the most ambitious net-zero timelines and could account for more than two-thirds of market share by 2030, following exponential growth trends, according to new analysis by RMI in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund.

Combustion car sales peaked in 2017, and by the middle of the decade more will be scrapped than sold, meaning the overall fleet of combustion cars is about to peak and will be in freefall by 2030, the RMI research shows.

Following an “S-curve”* trajectory, already established by leading EV markets in Northern Europe and China, implies that global EV sales will increase at least sixfold by 2030, to enjoy a market share of 62% to 86% of new vehicle sales, the analysis shows. By contrast, current established projections see EVs reaching only around 40% market share by 2030, despite having been consistently revised higher to try and keep up with the exponential growth already underway.

For a deep dive into EV sales, and the leading countries, this long(ish) article has more info, including the utterly massive importance/numbers in China.

These Countries Are Adopting Electric Vehicles The Fastest

China is by far the biggest player when it comes to EVs. In 2022, 22% of passenger vehicles sold in China were all-electric, which adds up to 4.4 million sales. That’s higher than the 3 million EVs sold in the rest of the world combined. China’s support for EVs has helped drive down battery costs and make EV adoption easier all over the world.

China, which was far behind other countries in the production of internal combustion engine vehicles, saw EVs as a strategic investment in a new area of automobile manufacturing where it could develop an edge if it started early enough. It was also interested in the role EVs could play in reducing air pollution and dependence on imported oil.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

For a deep dive into EV sales, and the leading countries, this long(ish) article has more info, including the utterly massive importance/numbers in China.

The real news on that growth of EV's in China might not relate to China per se, or the developed world, but the potential for other parts of the developing world.

According to this, 2009 population for China 1.334 million and 2020 population 1.412 million.  Six percent growth.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263765/total-population-of-china/

According to this, 2009 car ownership 45.75 million and 2020 cars 242.91 million.  Over 500 percent growth.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/278475/privately-owned-vehicles-in-china/

Could it be that individuals in China finding they can afford a car for the first time are able to totally skip ICE and get straight into an EV?

If that is the case, we could see other developing countries follow a similar "straight to EV" path as their populations become more affluent.

That would have massive implications for legacy auto. 
I have queried before (in this and the EV discussion thread) legacy auto still launching new ICE models given the end-game being signalled for within the life-cycle of a new model launch. 
The counter argument has been put forward that these "best" ICE vehicles will support growth in the developing world as their populations become more affluent by offering cheap-as-chips end of life technology and better that than developing world all driving older polluting designs of ICE.

Look at the current mooted protectionist policies of EU and USA to prevent the low cost Chinese cars being sold into the markets.
Maybe China just won't care if they can sell billions of low cost EV cars to the developing world and new car owning populations never had an ICE but all just went for EV as first car.  Developing world markets have the potential to be far larger than developed world.
We may well look back in 2030 and see these massive Chinese automative brands with global dominance and the legacy auto totally unable to compete.  With large existing inventory of ICE, developed world will look like the backward nations.

Martyn1981

Totally agree GC. For years I've been thinking exactly the same, especially when we're told that Toyota (and similar) will be fine for a decade+ as they can shift their HEV and PHEV sales to new markets, poorer countries etc etc..

I think the problem with that argument was always the failure to appreciate the second part you point out - cheap Chinese BEV's. This isn't meant to be derogatory about some nations, but they aren't at the levels for vehicle standards that Europe/US are, so the availability of super cheap and basic BEV's, will be fine. These are BEV's that legacy auto simply don't build, and would have to go head to head with China, if they chose too.

That's one of the reasons why I always get somewhat overexcited posting articles about cheap/simple BEV's emerging in Africa and Asia.

I also think we have to consider the ever cheaper availability of PV, as this can bring 'fuel' to people at lower costs than transporting petrol and diesel, in many locations. It might not work for us*, but having a super light BEV, with a small batt, charging slowly from some PV, will be a great start for many people.

Not sure when legacy auto will start to buckle, but well before 2030 I suspect. Lots of rumours from China already that sales are slowing - Not sure if this is true, but heard that Audi is massively discounting many ICEV's, and offering 50% discounts on new BEV's to their Chinese workers.

*In theory, it could be great for us, but these will be vehicles not suited to European rules, regs, roads, and demands.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

I also think we have to consider the ever cheaper availability of PV, as this can bring 'fuel' to people at lower costs than transporting petrol and diesel, in many locations. 

This could be another reason to see developing nations leapfrog widespread ICE ownership to widespread EV ownership.
There must be some areas where the provision of petrol and diesel supply (petrol stations) is simply inadequate to support high levels of private ICE ownership. 
If you were a Government, or a company, investing in infrastructure to these areas, would provision of a network of petrol stations be a priority when, considering energy, an electric grid offers greater versatility?  Especially if that electric grid can include a large number of solar generating fields?  In water scarce geographies, with vast desert areas, the conundrum faced of using the land for food crops or energy is not a conundrum as the land is not supporting food crops in any case.

I can quite imagine an entrepreneurial EV company offering customers in sun-drenched but otherwise less developed communities a solar-EV solution including some element of domestic power from the battery and that would be very attractive to buy.