Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps worth moving to the discussion thread and we can look up articles on the longer distances that some BEV's are already clocking up, I can think of the heavy used TM3 (300k miles in Canada), but I think its battery degradation is a little high (20%) as it's almost exclusively supercharged.

If you can rustle up some 20-year-old TM3s we'll be able to see how good Tesla's metallurgy and paint shop are

No need, lots of BEV's exceeding 150k miles already, as per my posts, and the part you quoted.

Sorry, I can't have been clear enough - mileage isn't the issue here, it's age. Your quote is irrelevant unless you really do have data on a a 2002-model TM3.

Hiya, all of my comments were about mileage, that was the very issue I raised. I do appreciate you were talking about age, which will of course be an issue, though I have to say it's been a very long time since rust and welding was an issue for old cars I've owned, though a Ford Cortina was a right pig, I have to admit.

Looking at the high mileage BEV's, particularly those used for taxi like services, they are clocking up huge mileage. As I said, maybe it's something to chat about on the discussion thread. I seem to recall Tesloop saying they wouldn't operate their (luxury style) service with ICEV's over about 150k miles as the ongoing maintenance costs and down times would be too high. Though, on the other side, they have experienced problems with the batteries (S and X I believe) as they had early vehicles and life time free supercharging, so the batts suffered (but under warranty).

Edit - I've posted links to some of the points I made earlier on this thread, on the discussion thread, as GC seemed to miss my responses to his comments on here. Fun subject worth discussion (IMO) but I appreciate I do find this stuff overly interesting.

ABrass

If an EV outlasts an ICE in terms of high mileage vehicles then that's still a win for EVs.

No one knows how EVs will last against equivalent era ICE cars after 23 years, obviously, but given the experience with batteries they're likely to do as well or better.

Martyn1981

Good news, Tesla's share of the BEV market is falling fast. 

Tesla BEV Market Share Dropped From 25.1% In Q2 2020 To 15.6% In Q2 2022 — While Sales Grew 180.2%

“Troy Teslike” tracks Tesla data like no one else I know. In the past day, he published an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table, below, shows how Tesla’s share of major BEV markets has declined in the past couple of years.

Looking at the biggest market, China, first, Tesla’s share of that BEV market dropped from 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market dropped from 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at the USA (which is barely more than half the size of the European BEV market and far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), Tesla’s share dropped from 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in Q2 2022.

Combining all of these markets, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022.

EricMears

Martyn1981 said:

Good news, Tesla's share of the BEV market is falling fast. 

Tesla BEV Market Share Dropped From 25.1% In Q2 2020 To 15.6% In Q2 2022 — While Sales Grew 180.2%

“Troy Teslike” tracks Tesla data like no one else I know. In the past day, he published an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table, below, shows how Tesla’s share of major BEV markets has declined in the past couple of years.

Looking at the biggest market, China, first, Tesla’s share of that BEV market dropped from 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market dropped from 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at the USA (which is barely more than half the size of the European BEV market and far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), Tesla’s share dropped from 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in Q2 2022.

Combining all of these markets, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022.

I doubt 'the other EM' is quite so happy about it 

However I suspect it just means that a lot of new entrants to the market are accounting for a lot of extra sales rather than Tesla's absolute volume has dropped.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Good news, Tesla's share of the BEV market is falling fast. 

Tesla BEV Market Share Dropped From 25.1% In Q2 2020 To 15.6% In Q2 2022 — While Sales Grew 180.2%

“Troy Teslike” tracks Tesla data like no one else I know. In the past day, he published an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table, below, shows how Tesla’s share of major BEV markets has declined in the past couple of years.

Looking at the biggest market, China, first, Tesla’s share of that BEV market dropped from 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market dropped from 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at the USA (which is barely more than half the size of the European BEV market and far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), Tesla’s share dropped from 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in Q2 2022.

Combining all of these markets, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022.

By my maths Tesla would have need to more than triple their production to maintain market share - as even if they had simply increased production by 180% that would resulted in the totla market growing by even more than 180% so Tesla would have had to increase production by even more.  IN reality the Shanghai covid shutdown resulted in production and sales falling in Q2.

Teslas EV market share remains remarkable and by value even more so.  To come from nowhere and already be hitting annual sales of 2m vehicles is unprecedented.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Good news, Tesla's share of the BEV market is falling fast. 

Tesla BEV Market Share Dropped From 25.1% In Q2 2020 To 15.6% In Q2 2022 — While Sales Grew 180.2%

“Troy Teslike” tracks Tesla data like no one else I know. In the past day, he published an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table, below, shows how Tesla’s share of major BEV markets has declined in the past couple of years.

Looking at the biggest market, China, first, Tesla’s share of that BEV market dropped from 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market dropped from 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in Q2 2022.

Looking at the USA (which is barely more than half the size of the European BEV market and far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), Tesla’s share dropped from 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in Q2 2022.

Combining all of these markets, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022.

By my maths Tesla would have need to more than triple their production to maintain market share - as even if they had simply increased production by 180% that would resulted in the totla market growing by even more than 180% so Tesla would have had to increase production by even more.  IN reality the Shanghai covid shutdown resulted in production and sales falling in Q2.

Teslas EV market share remains remarkable and by value even more so.  To come from nowhere and already be hitting annual sales of 2m vehicles is unprecedented.

Just been watching some more BEV news, and a comment stood out for me, which ties in with your 2m* comment. It's possible that in Q4 this year, Tesla will produce ~500k vehicles, which will be roughly the same as it produced in the whole of 2020. And even the 500k figure for 2020 is astonishing as Tesla said that was their aim in 2014 (I think Elon said it during an interview related to the model X launch), and analysts explained that it was simply impossible, requiring a level of CAGR (compound annual growth rate) that even Amazon hadn't achieved.

*Personally, I'm trying not to get too excited, and suspect that Q4 won't achieve 500k, perhaps 450k, but I do think Dec could reach 167k, as production continues to ramp in all 4 factories, which would still mean they reach an annualised production rate of 2m this year.

Also in the news were a few stories looking back in fun at all the promised Tesla killers, such as the Jaquar I-Pace, Audi E-Tron, Chevy Bolt etc.. But took a darker turn, when it was suggested that some of the Chinese vehicles, such as the MG4, could be VW ID3/4 killers, in terms of value for money.

Things are heating up, strap in for a bumpy ride.

silverwhistle

The MG4 is good, I had a test drive in one yesterday and should be picking it up Tuesday! I wasn't going to change my car but the dealer offered a wedge more for my two year old than I paid them for it! A purpose designed car with faster charging, more efficiency and another 50 miles range for a cost to change that can come out of my current account (which admittedly has too much in it at the moment). I'm getting the standard range model that has enough for all my regular needs and decent enough charging speeds for when I want to go longer distances.

michaels

silverwhistle said:

The MG4 is good, I had a test drive in one yesterday and should be picking it up Tuesday! I wasn't going to change my car but the dealer offered a wedge more for my two year old than I paid them for it! A purpose designed car with faster charging, more efficiency and another 50 miles range for a cost to change that can come out of my current account (which admittedly has too much in it at the moment). I'm getting the standard range model that has enough for all my regular needs and decent enough charging speeds for when I want to go longer distances.

Is this the standard range or long range? Apologies for not reading carefully

I think as a car it is directly comparable to the leaf or ID3? (it even looks quite like the current leaf from the side and rear)

Are they really rear wheel drive as this is (at last in ICE) pretty unusual in this segment.

silverwhistle

Standard range, as mentioned in my post!

Yes, rear wheel drive, and as the weight is distributed so well feels really secure. Certainly should be considered anybody looking at Leafs and ID3s at a very competitive price.

Currently at my desk trying to sort out insurance... aargh!

silverwhistle

Just to add that it also has V2L, so I might make my friend make up a lead Type 2 to standard three pin socket (I've seen the spec somewhere) and at least can avoid losing my freezer contents if we have any long power cuts this winter!