Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Good news from the US with California setting dates for the move from ICEVs to BEVs. 14 states are committed to follow California's standard, representing about a 1/3rd of US car sales.

California bans sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035 in milestone step

California has approved a ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035 as the state takes dramatic steps to reduce emissions and combat the climate emergency.

In a vote on Thursday, state regulators moved forward with a plan to phase out the sale of gas cars over the next 13 years in America’s largest auto market.

The move is being hailed as a major victory that could point the way forward for others. It gives the most populous US state some of the world’s most stringent regulations for transitioning to electric vehicles.

In 2021, only 12% of new cars sold in California were zero-emission, according to Carb, though about 16% of cars sold in the first three months of this year were electric. The new rule would require the state reach 35% of sales by 2026, 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. It would not affect cars that are already on the road.

2nd_time_buyer

Martyn1981 said:

First all-electric refuse collection vehicles help Wales clean up

worth it for the headline alone.

Martyn1981

Not the most interesting news/article, but I thought I'd post it simply as it gives prices for petrol and BEV van versions, so a direct comparison can be made. With a price difference of £10k, I'd suggest that works out reasonably well over say a 10yr period (one or more owners), with annual running cost and hopefully depreciation being lower for the BEV.

Nissan Announces UK Pricing For Townstar Electric Minivan

Customers wanting zero-emission vehicles will pay from £29,945 for a short-wheelbase Townstar with a 45kWh battery and a range of up to 183 miles WLTP combined or up to 269 miles in city cycle. A refined 1.3-liter TCe petrol engine that is fully compliant with the current Euro 6d Full emissions requirements offers 130 horsepower and 240 pound-feet of torque, giving power and efficiency in equal measure. Starting at £19,475 for gasoline versions, the Townstar offers a high equipment specification and a choice of either a short or long wheelbase.

Martyn1981

Great idea, I think. An easy e-motor swap for petrol mopeds. The benefits of this idea could be enormous in the areas of the World where mopeds and small motorbikes currently rule as the main form of transport.

Seems to be an early days idea, looking for funding, so it may not be a fully viable idea yet (I don't know), but I hope this works out for them or others.

E-Core Inventor Wants To Replace World’s Millions Of 50cc Engines With Electric Motors

Benjamin Surain of Belgium has developed a battery and electric motor package that would be a direct, drop-in replacement for the ubiquitous 50cc gasoline engines that power millions upon millions of mopeds and scooters all around the world.

Surain calls his idea E-Core. It incorporates a 1200 watt-hour removable battery pack that can be carried indoors for recharging and a 3 kW (4 hp) electric motor. The performance between the conventional engine and the electric drivetrain is about the same, except the motor has a peak power rating of 8 kW (12 hp), which could transform the driving characteristics of all those mopeds that have a maximum of about 2.5 kW (3 hp) available.

Martyn1981

So, last night I was trawling through the tech videos on Youtube, and suddenly saw something so incredible, I nearly spilt my Ovaltine.

Go to the Tandem Centaur feature at min marker 2.00.

It's a detachable electric battery, motor, extra axle and fifth wheel for trucks. So the diesel truck instantly becomes a hybrid, and the battery (being detachable) means it's also easily swappable for charging. Looks almost too good/simple to believe, one of those 'thinking outside the box' solutions.

Totally brilliant.

INCREDIBLE TRAILERS AND TRUCKS FOR THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVERYTHING

Here's a link to the company

Martyn1981

This news really jumps out due to the number of cities and the date, though the article points out this is early days (breaking news?) so the info / rules are currently vague.

Moves like these add a lot of legislative pressure against ICEV's.


Almost 150 Spanish Cities Rolling Out Low-Emission Zones In 2023

Spain is getting critical about cleansing up its air, and that’s the case in cities throughout the nation. As a result of the Local weather Change and Power Transition Legislation, most Spanish cities will probably be implementing low-emission zones inside their borders in 2023. Spanish municipalities with 50,000 residents or extra must implement such zones. In line with one Spanish information supply, that’s practically 150 Spanish municipalities.

Along with these core cities, any metropolis with greater than 20,000 residents and episodes of excessive air pollution additionally has to implement low-emission zones.

Martyn1981

Another "poor" month for Norway, though of course it's relative. Probably just down to tough times, and limited Tesla deliveries, which should pick up for Sept. But, perhaps it's a demonstration of how hard/slow it is to reach the last 10% in a disruption scenario - In this case roughly 14% (petrol + diesel + HEV's).

I would suggest/guess that the last 10-20% of ICEV sales will be easier to displace for most countries in the future, as Norway is well ahead of the trend and a relatively small market. But for the market as a whole, the economics of producing and selling ICEV's will suffer massively as demand falls by, say, 80%, so it might be that most supply dries up at that point, regardless of demand. We will also have improving BEV economics, and legislation too, all kicking in the mid to late 2020's.

Norway has an aspiration to reach zero ICE in 2025, but not yet a legal requirement. Their fleet is now closing in on 20% BEV's (25% PEV's), and transitioning at about 5%pa.

Norway’s Plugin EVs Still Falling, For Reasons

Norway, the country furthest along in the electric vehicle transition, saw a second consecutive month of falling plugin electric vehicle share, at 86.1% from 87.7% a year ago. Like last month, full electrics did see annual growth in share, but this was outweighed by the greater falling share of plugin hybrids. Overall auto volumes also declined YoY by some 25% to 12,363 units. The Volkswagen ID.4 was again Norway’s overall best seller.

August’s combined plugin result of 86.1% comprised 74.8% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 11.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). BEVs have grown share modestly YoY, from 71.9%, but PHEVs have lost share, from 15.8%.

michaels

UK BEV sales again up strongly YoY but again no Teslas this month (the July Shanghai shutdown?)  

UK new car registration data, UK car market - SMMT

Martyn1981

Massive shift to BEV's in New Zealand, or just pent up demand for a country often ignored. And/or reflecting shipments arriving. Fingers crossed for option one.

Electric Cars = 23% Of New Zealand Auto Market, Tesla = 12%

New Zealand has gotten the electric car fever, and August showed that more than ever before. Last month, 23% of new auto sales were sales of fully electric cars. (Adding in hybrids would bring the total share of “green(er)” vehicles to 44%.)

Interestingly, the electric vehicle market was dominated by two brands. Tesla and BYD accounted for 70% of the pure EV market. Taking that together, as you can imagine, Tesla and BYD had sizable shares of the overall auto market in August. Tesla accounted for 12% of the market while BYD accounted for 4%.

Overall, 10,940 new vehicles were sold in New Zealand in August, 2,577 of which were full electrics, 1,326 of which were Teslas, and 448 of which were BYD Atto 3s.

It may be a small market, but the EV revolution is clearly well underway in New Zealand.

Martyn1981

This bit of news has been hitting the Youtube channels hard the last couple of days, so I've found an article covering it.

In short, the Boston Consulting Group has been producing estimates of EV adoption in the US. They have produced four over the last five years, and their estimate for 2030 market share has risen (so far) from 21% to 53%. All projections show a solid 'S' curve, but the darn thing keeps getting steeper.

Worth noting that even their latest prediction shows sales trailing off around 80% in 2040, but I'd suggest supply of ICEV's by then will be minimal, regardless of demand. Plus the latest estimate was produced before the US Inflation Reduction Act was passed providing new subsidies for BEV purchases (and battery production), and California issued an ICE ban for 2035, with progression targets through to then.

U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.

Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.

“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”

He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”