Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

QrizB

Grumpy_chap said:

I am also not convinced that the ability of the drive train to do more miles is the most significant factor in the car becoming end-of-life.  My 15 yo 150k mile Focus is nearing end of life but the fundamental "driving" part of the car is fine.  It is other "stuff" that is the issue:

In my entire car-owning life I've only sold two cars as a runner (and both of those I sold to someone who I expected to be their last owner). All the others have been sold for spares or been taken away on a scrap dealer's lorry (even the one I PX'd will have gone for scrap).

In every case (bar the runners) the vehicles had faults that were Beyond Economic Repair, typically:

• Rust requiring extensive welding and/or replacement panels; or
  
• Wear-related engine / gearbox / running gear faults needing garage attention.

I don't think EVs are magically immune to either of these classes of fault, and even if EV drivetrains are longer-lived than ICE ones they are still built in the same way with the same steels and coatings so rust will eventually do for them.

Martyn1981

orrery said:

Martyn1981 said:

What battery reconditioning is needed for BEV's?

When batteries start to fail, it is usually just a few cells, or modules, that need replacing. There's no reason why that can't happen. We don't yet have a good 3rd party network of service stations that can do that. There are one or two, and there is a video of an old Leaf having a few modules replaced for a few hundred quid, then driving away "as new".

Yes, I could also only think of issues with some of the early Leafs.

Hopefully we'll get more info over time as we see some of the bigger battery BEV's already clocking up many hundreds of thousands of miles.

michaels

I guess if it is engine/clutch/gearbox account for a good proportion of 'beyond economic repair' for ice cars rather than suspension/rust/electrics then you can see how EVs would last longer - except perhaps EV motors/diffs are currently 'over-engineered' - once they know better how to build them down to minimum cost to last on average 10-15 years then presumably they will do so.....

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Hi GC, looks like batts and motors are good for around 500k, so probably 3 ICEV's 

I think this typically reflects the fact that older and higher mileage ICEV's tend to be used for shorter journeys, and/or lower annual use, whereas the BEVs should still be fine, even if after 150k miles they have lost 5-10% of battery capacity.

I am truly interested here to understand why an EV would have a life-span three times and ICE.  

That has to be linked to the suggestion that the comment about ICEs are used for less when they age but an EV would not be used less.
Presumably EVs will still have new car buyers that get a new vehicle every 3 or 4 years (company car, PCP, taxi etc) just the same as with ICE.  These new car buyers tend to be the higher mileage users.
The car gets sold on and the third or fourth or fifth owner is getting the car at 10 or 12 years old.  This owner of the older car is tending towards the lower mileage user.
The new car buyer is also wanting the latest features where the buyer of the older car is tolerating less features
So, that use profile reducing as the car ages will not substantially change, unless there is a consideration that ownership patterns will vary.
If the ownership patterns will vary so that the new car buyer buys and keeps for life, that won't be a quick change but a generational thing.

I am also not convinced that the ability of the drive train to do more miles is the most significant factor in the car becoming end-of-life.  My 15 yo 150k mile Focus is nearing end of life but the fundamental "driving" part of the car is fine.  It is other "stuff" that is the issue:

• Air con broken
• No milometer / message display (failed LCD module)
• Boot won't stay open properly (hydraulic strut)
• Generally squeaky and noisy / rattly interior
• Worn steering wheel all smooth
• Cracked gear lever
• Electric windows temperamental
• Rust setting in the body work

I think the Focus will easily keep going for another 50k miles (except I have no way of knowing on that anymore) and I'd assess then if it has another 50k, then the next and so on.  BUT, the other "stuff" that is all worn and makes it a less than wonderful place to be would all wear on an EV and cause the value / end-of-life to be reached.  If the drivetrain is going to do 500k miles, then so has the rest of the car.

I accept that my Focus is only one example and does not constitute a comprehensive data set, but I don't think the Focus is unusual. 
It "works" but there is a lot wrong with it.
I don't see any reason why the same would not be said for an EV as the age and mileage increases.

Happy to be explained why the EV will be different in either the ownership profiles and use for older cars and / or why all the "stuff" will suddenly last longer.

Hi. Obviously as cars clock up more mileage the moving parts of the ICEV suffer and maintenance costs rise to the point that it's not economical or reliable for higher mileage use. But BEV's don't appear to suffer those problems.

If you have a look at Tony Seba's presentations on TAAS (transport as a service), I think they were around 2017, he explains the cost savings given the vehicles expected ability to last significantly longer than an ICEV (I think he suggested 500k to 1m miles), which of course reduces the fare cost (by reducing CAPEX and OPEX). Well worth watching, and he pretty much called the dates of 2022+ right, as we see an expansion of autonomous vehicles this year as they learn to drive/operate.

I appreciate that it's not just the drivetrain, but I'd suggest that spending money on worn suspension (as an example) is worthwhile with a BEV whose motor is operating fine, and with a battery pack showing minimal degradation. However, with growing costs for an ICE, gearbox, clutch, exhaust etc, and perhaps struggling to meet emissions standards, spending on the rest of the vehicle may not be worthwhile.

Perhaps worth moving to the discussion thread and we can look up articles on the longer distances that some BEV's are already clocking up, I can think of the heavy used TM3 (300k miles in Canada), but I think its battery degradation is a little high (20%) as it's almost exclusively supercharged.

I also seem to remember some average mileage figures (though I can't recall where from) that were 135k miles in Europe and 150k miles in the US for ICEV's [edit, US car mag Car and driver suggest this may now be 200k miles as technology improves], but of course these will include accidents and other early life ending reasons. Perhaps someone knows the correct data, in case I've misrecalled those numbers.

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps worth moving to the discussion thread and we can look up articles on the longer distances that some BEV's are already clocking up, I can think of the heavy used TM3 (300k miles in Canada), but I think its battery degradation is a little high (20%) as it's almost exclusively supercharged.

If you can rustle up some 20-year-old TM3s we'll be able to see how good Tesla's metallurgy and paint shop are

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps worth moving to the discussion thread and we can look up articles on the longer distances that some BEV's are already clocking up, I can think of the heavy used TM3 (300k miles in Canada), but I think its battery degradation is a little high (20%) as it's almost exclusively supercharged.

If you can rustle up some 20-year-old TM3s we'll be able to see how good Tesla's metallurgy and paint shop are

No need, lots of BEV's exceeding 150k miles already, as per my posts, and the part you quoted.

orrery

Martyn1981 said:

No need, lots of BEV's exceeding 150k miles already, as per my posts, and the part you quoted.

Yes, they can, but will they? Will they start to have problems with individual cells as they get older - it must be a real risk when there are between 200 and 8000 per car.

Note how reliable LEDs are - I can't remember one failing in any kit that I own. But, stick enough of them on the back of every car and drive them hard and you often see the odd one failed.

We'll need to see 3rd party battery service agents who can replace the odd cell or module to 'refresh' battery packs.

Martyn1981

Quite a detailed report on China's EV market. Thought it was interesting as it mentions the large battery PHEV's that China offers, and I've read lots of comments about. But BEV's are the majority of the NEV (new energy vehicles) sales which includes all plug-ins. the writer makes a bold suggestion that the Chinese market could be BEV based by 2025, now that would be something.

China Electric Car Sales — 30% Share Of Auto Sales In August!

Plugin vehicles continue to be all the rage in the Chinese auto market. Plugins stayed in the fast lane in July, growing 92% year over year (YoY). They scored over 552,000 registrations last month. Plugin hybrids (PHEVs) surged 137% year over year (YoY). They reached 140,000 registrations in August, which is their fourth record month in row. It seems the Chinese version of PHEVs, with an average of 30-plus kWh batteries and working more as EREVs, has struck a chord with buyers. As for BEVs, they grew a “paltry” 80% … to 412,000 units.

Share-wise, with August showing another strong performance, plugin vehicles hit 30% market share. And the share could have gone higher, if the overall passenger car market hadn’t surged 29% last month thanks to recent registration tax reductions.

Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 22% of the country’s auto sales last month! This kept the 2022 share at 26% plugins and 20% BEVs.

If electrification continues at this pace, this market will be BEV-based by 2025! Imagine that: the largest automotive market in the world being BEV-based in three years time!

Martyn1981

Bit of a heavy article, but considers the issue of Lithium supply, and how it may hold back the BEV'olution. Simple issues such as Lithium extraction expansion taking years longer to build out than battery factories, but also that increased demand raises prices and the viability of more supply.

I wonder how similar this is to the issue of petroleum supplies as the World started to shift to motor vehicles 100yrs+ ago?

Lithium Bottlenecks — Real Risk For EV Adoption Or Overhyped?

The following is a wonderful article by Charles Morris that communicates several important points superbly. It presents a bit of a different take on lithium than we’ve typically been presenting, while still referencing a comment from a battery exec that emphasizing a key point we’ve been communicating for years. That key point is that while it may take just a year or two (this exec says two) to build a battery factory, it takes at least 5–7 years (this exec says 8 years) to get a new lithium mine into production.

I think it’s worth giving the argument Charles presents a lot of attention, but I still side with all of the lithium experts I’ve talked to in the past few years, who forecast a big imbalance in lithium supply and demand due to not enough firm commitments and financing for lithium years in advance (whether from battery makers or automakers, but stemming from not having firm enough commitments and orders from automakers). Aside from the supply-side issues here, I think one shouldn’t discount what could happen with regards to demand. We already see rapid adoption of EVs in Europe and China (and you might even say the USA), and it’s just 2022. We already see a good number of truly competitive mass-market EV models, and it’s just 2022. We’ve also already seen an enormous increase in lithium prices in the past couple of years. By 2025 onward, I think a good portion of the public in most of the world will realize that it makes little to no sense to buy a fossil fuel vehicle. They may want to buy an electric vehicle ASAP, or they may decide they want to buy one within the next few years, but the bottom line is that automakers will need to sell a ton of EVs in order to keep their sales up and not end up in bankrutpcy. That means they will need a ton of lithium (well, many tons of lithium), and I don’t think there will be enough lithium mined and refined by the end of the 2020s for global demand — not nearly enough. But we shall see.

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

Perhaps worth moving to the discussion thread and we can look up articles on the longer distances that some BEV's are already clocking up, I can think of the heavy used TM3 (300k miles in Canada), but I think its battery degradation is a little high (20%) as it's almost exclusively supercharged.

If you can rustle up some 20-year-old TM3s we'll be able to see how good Tesla's metallurgy and paint shop are

No need, lots of BEV's exceeding 150k miles already, as per my posts, and the part you quoted.

Sorry, I can't have been clear enough - mileage isn't the issue here, it's age. Your quote is irrelevant unless you really do have data on a a 2002-model TM3.