Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

I think Japan has found a rabbit hole, and decided to investigate it.

So, they've argued for the removal of a, let's face it, weak 2030 target of 50% zero emissions vehicles, and had removed a 2035 target of all vehicles.

I can't understand what they are thinking opposing a 2030 target of just 50%. China and Europe should be closing in on 50% by 2025, and the US hopefully only a couple of years behind. That's roughly 70% of the World's car market.

Of the G7 only Italy (apart from Japan) is dragging its heels. So 50% by (before) 2030 is going to happen, regardless of what targets Japan signs up to. The World market will shift, and if Japan isn't ready to supply their share, then China will happily step in. Japan can't afford to lose all of these sales/exports, their economy will be heavily damaged, so they'll have to transition production anyway.

Exclusive: Japan pushes to remove zero-emission vehicle target from G7 statement, draft shows

TOKYO/BRUSSELS, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan is pushing to remove a target for zero-emission vehicles from a G7 communique expected this week, according to a proposed draft seen by Reuters, a move that would water down language on climate change from the leaders' summit in Germany.

The pressure from Tokyo, an influential member of the Group of Seven rich nations, comes as the Japanese auto industry has faced scrutiny from green investors who say it has been slow to embrace zero-emission vehicles and lobbied against regulations that would encourage quicker transition to the technology.

Reuters reported last week that Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) head lobbied the Japanese government to make clear it supported hybrid vehicles as much as zero-emission battery electrics. G7 leaders are meeting in the Bavarian Alps for a summit where climate change figures on the agenda. read more

Japan has proposed removing a reference to a "collective goal of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030", according to a draft of the communique reviewed by Reuters.

Exiled_Tyke

Martyn1981 said:

Well that's scuppered my plans to buy a £1m ICE Ferrari in 2030.

EU’s electric vehicle drive leaves supercars at the back of the grid

The EU this week agreed draft legislation banning the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2035, ignoring a plea from Italy for a “Ferrari exception” to allow its supercar industry to continue making its petrol-powered products.

Today I happened to walk directly past an Aston Martin garage. I did notice that every vehicle is 'G' on it's CO2 rating. Of course that's not a surprise and the number of vehicles they sell with these emissions will be very small but why on earth should they be still allowed?  Reflecting on this it also occurred to me that noisy cars may become socially unacceptable. As vehicles are slowly starting to get quieter the noisy ones are becoming more and more noticeable.  

CKhalvashi

Exiled_Tyke said:

Martyn1981 said:

Well that's scuppered my plans to buy a £1m ICE Ferrari in 2030.

EU’s electric vehicle drive leaves supercars at the back of the grid

The EU this week agreed draft legislation banning the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2035, ignoring a plea from Italy for a “Ferrari exception” to allow its supercar industry to continue making its petrol-powered products.

Today I happened to walk directly past an Aston Martin garage. I did notice that every vehicle is 'G' on it's CO2 rating. Of course that's not a surprise and the number of vehicles they sell with these emissions will be very small but why on earth should they be still allowed?  Reflecting on this it also occurred to me that noisy cars may become socially unacceptable. As vehicles are slowly starting to get quieter the noisy ones are becoming more and more noticeable.  

Same with aircraft.

We have old, dirty, noisy Ryanair 737-800s flying over constantly. Hopefully Jet2 (or another carrier that doesn't fly to our local airport) get stronger with 235/9 seat A321NEOs, which are quieter than the MAX, far more fuel efficient per passenger and from the business point of view cheaper to operate.

3.3kg/km for the NEO of fuel vs 3.6kg/km for the -800 on a comparable sector length with an additional 50 seats can only be a good thing.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

I think Japan has found a rabbit hole, and decided to investigate it.

So, they've argued for the removal of a, let's face it, weak 2030 target of 50% zero emissions vehicles, and had removed a 2035 target of all vehicles.

I can't understand what they are thinking opposing a 2030 target of just 50%. China and Europe should be closing in on 50% by 2025, and the US hopefully only a couple of years behind. That's roughly 70% of the World's car market.

Of the G7 only Italy (apart from Japan) is dragging its heels. So 50% by (before) 2030 is going to happen, regardless of what targets Japan signs up to. The World market will shift, and if Japan isn't ready to supply their share, then China will happily step in. Japan can't afford to lose all of these sales/exports, their economy will be heavily damaged, so they'll have to transition production anyway.

Exclusive: Japan pushes to remove zero-emission vehicle target from G7 statement, draft shows

TOKYO/BRUSSELS, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan is pushing to remove a target for zero-emission vehicles from a G7 communique expected this week, according to a proposed draft seen by Reuters, a move that would water down language on climate change from the leaders' summit in Germany.

The pressure from Tokyo, an influential member of the Group of Seven rich nations, comes as the Japanese auto industry has faced scrutiny from green investors who say it has been slow to embrace zero-emission vehicles and lobbied against regulations that would encourage quicker transition to the technology.

Reuters reported last week that Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) head lobbied the Japanese government to make clear it supported hybrid vehicles as much as zero-emission battery electrics. G7 leaders are meeting in the Bavarian Alps for a summit where climate change figures on the agenda. read more

Japan has proposed removing a reference to a "collective goal of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030", according to a draft of the communique reviewed by Reuters.

There is a danger of looking at this from a European perspective and/or a climate perspective only. Let’s look at it commercially. 

Japan sells around 8 times as many cars in Asia as it does in Europe. Japan itself seems to be in no hurry to transition to EVs. China are targeting 40% EVs by 2030. It is expected that India, where Japanese cars make up around 60% of sales, is expected to reach 30-40% EVs by 2030. That still leaves a very large ICE market and given that European ICE production will be on its last legs by 2030 Japan is well placed to pick up ICE sales in the markets Europe can no longer supply. The ICE cake is getting smaller but Japan will have a bigger slice of it. The fewer players in the ICE market, then the less competition and ICEs may be profitable for some time, particularly if the European manufacturers are pulling out quicker than sales are falling. 

Meanwhile the Japanese are beginning to start EV manufacture and may just grow that production sufficiently to keep pace with the switch to EVs in Japan and India. The Japanese EVs that are being produced now such as the latest Nissan and Toyota offerings are receiving good reviews and are likely to do well worldwide. Most Japanese manufacturers are promising an extensive range of EVs so I don’t expect them to be left out. Japan is also planning to increase battery production to take a 20% share by 2030. https://www.silicon.co.uk/e-innovation/green-it/japan-battery-453402

Japanese manufacturers are also looking ahead to solid state batteries and at the same time keeping a foot in the hydrogen camp. 

We could not have predicted 10 years ago where the car industry would be today and we can’t predict where it will be in 10 years time. From a commercial point of view, I believe the European car industry, focussed on EU legislation, has jumped to end ICE production too soon. It may be the right thing to do from an emissions point of view but commercially it might come back and bite them. (Most EU manufacturers are already cutting small cars out of their ranges leaving the field wide open for Japanese and South Korean manufacturers.) 

We must remember that EV production is materials constrained and likely to be so for many years to come and although there may be the demand for EVs it is unlikely they can be built fast enough to meet that demand. China controls the materials needed for a large proportion of battery manufacture and strategically it is a mistake to be so dependent on what is not necessarily a friendly country (as we have seen with our dependence on Russia).

it may not be what we want to happen from a climate point of view but commercially Japan’s position makes a lot of sense. 

Edit: original post added for context as there had been subsequent posts in between. Also, a couple of typos corrected.

JKenH

Exiled_Tyke said:

Martyn1981 said:

Well that's scuppered my plans to buy a £1m ICE Ferrari in 2030.

EU’s electric vehicle drive leaves supercars at the back of the grid

The EU this week agreed draft legislation banning the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2035, ignoring a plea from Italy for a “Ferrari exception” to allow its supercar industry to continue making its petrol-powered products.

Today I happened to walk directly past an Aston Martin garage. I did notice that every vehicle is 'G' on it's CO2 rating. Of course that's not a surprise and the number of vehicles they sell with these emissions will be very small but why on earth should they be still allowed?  Reflecting on this it also occurred to me that noisy cars may become socially unacceptable. As vehicles are slowly starting to get quieter the noisy ones are becoming more and more noticeable.  

I love to hear the wail of a Ferrari at full chat, even if it’s only in a race track. We get tractors going through our village at 30mph with empty steel bodied trailers bouncing over the potholes. That’s just noise pollution to me. We’re all different. 

JKenH

An article in Diesel and EcoCar reports that the Association of British Insurers has no record of any EV ever being stolen in the UK. Link below via Readly.

Suggestion about Diesel&EcoCar Magazine Issue 426 (June 22) page 16
https://go.readly.com/magazines/5ee0e1d8d9e84048232e84fe/627d6a2a99a301000aeff2ef/16

Martyn1981

And the upcoming milestone mentioned a couple of weeks ago has arrived. Though I think the article could have been a bit clearer at the start that these are BEV's.

Roll on a million, hopefully mid 2024(?)

Electric cars sold in UK passes half a million despite supply chain issues

The number of electric cars sold in the UK has surpassed half a million, according to analysis that underlines the rapid growth in demand despite supply chain problems caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

ed110220

Martyn1981 said:

I think Japan has found a rabbit hole, and decided to investigate it.

So, they've argued for the removal of a, let's face it, weak 2030 target of 50% zero emissions vehicles, and had removed a 2035 target of all vehicles.

I can't understand what they are thinking opposing a 2030 target of just 50%. China and Europe should be closing in on 50% by 2025, and the US hopefully only a couple of years behind. That's roughly 70% of the World's car market.

Of the G7 only Italy (apart from Japan) is dragging its heels. So 50% by (before) 2030 is going to happen, regardless of what targets Japan signs up to. The World market will shift, and if Japan isn't ready to supply their share, then China will happily step in. Japan can't afford to lose all of these sales/exports, their economy will be heavily damaged, so they'll have to transition production anyway.

Exclusive: Japan pushes to remove zero-emission vehicle target from G7 statement, draft shows

TOKYO/BRUSSELS, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan is pushing to remove a target for zero-emission vehicles from a G7 communique expected this week, according to a proposed draft seen by Reuters, a move that would water down language on climate change from the leaders' summit in Germany.

The pressure from Tokyo, an influential member of the Group of Seven rich nations, comes as the Japanese auto industry has faced scrutiny from green investors who say it has been slow to embrace zero-emission vehicles and lobbied against regulations that would encourage quicker transition to the technology.

Reuters reported last week that Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) head lobbied the Japanese government to make clear it supported hybrid vehicles as much as zero-emission battery electrics. G7 leaders are meeting in the Bavarian Alps for a summit where climate change figures on the agenda. read more

Japan has proposed removing a reference to a "collective goal of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030", according to a draft of the communique reviewed by Reuters.

At first it seems illogical that Japan, which is totally dependent on imported oil, should be so reluctant to give up ICE vehicles. But I think a big part is cultural and demographic. Japan had a massive boom from after the Second World War to the end of the 1980s. After that they suffered a bubble burst and the so called "lost decade" and since then their economy has been pretty stagnant. Japan's declining birth rate and aging society is well known. I think the two things have combined to produce a society that is particularly resistant to change.

I remember straight after uni, I went to Japan, about 15 years ago. There were smaller hotels that still only took bookings by fax. It was as if they had adopted the cutting edge of the 1970s-80s and then been frozen in time. I'd never used a fax machine and had to search around for web to fax services or find a print shop that offered a fax service. It was so bizarre. I get the impression Japanese corporate culture and government still very much lives in the past, in the days when they were at the forefront of technological innovation.

Martyn1981

ed110220 said:

Martyn1981 said:

I think Japan has found a rabbit hole, and decided to investigate it.

So, they've argued for the removal of a, let's face it, weak 2030 target of 50% zero emissions vehicles, and had removed a 2035 target of all vehicles.

I can't understand what they are thinking opposing a 2030 target of just 50%. China and Europe should be closing in on 50% by 2025, and the US hopefully only a couple of years behind. That's roughly 70% of the World's car market.

Of the G7 only Italy (apart from Japan) is dragging its heels. So 50% by (before) 2030 is going to happen, regardless of what targets Japan signs up to. The World market will shift, and if Japan isn't ready to supply their share, then China will happily step in. Japan can't afford to lose all of these sales/exports, their economy will be heavily damaged, so they'll have to transition production anyway.

Exclusive: Japan pushes to remove zero-emission vehicle target from G7 statement, draft shows

TOKYO/BRUSSELS, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan is pushing to remove a target for zero-emission vehicles from a G7 communique expected this week, according to a proposed draft seen by Reuters, a move that would water down language on climate change from the leaders' summit in Germany.

The pressure from Tokyo, an influential member of the Group of Seven rich nations, comes as the Japanese auto industry has faced scrutiny from green investors who say it has been slow to embrace zero-emission vehicles and lobbied against regulations that would encourage quicker transition to the technology.

Reuters reported last week that Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) head lobbied the Japanese government to make clear it supported hybrid vehicles as much as zero-emission battery electrics. G7 leaders are meeting in the Bavarian Alps for a summit where climate change figures on the agenda. read more

Japan has proposed removing a reference to a "collective goal of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030", according to a draft of the communique reviewed by Reuters.

At first it seems illogical that Japan, which is totally dependent on imported oil, should be so reluctant to give up ICE vehicles. But I think a big part is cultural and demographic. Japan had a massive boom from after the Second World War to the end of the 1980s. After that they suffered a bubble burst and the so called "lost decade" and since then their economy has been pretty stagnant. Japan's declining birth rate and aging society is well known. I think the two things have combined to produce a society that is particularly resistant to change.

I remember straight after uni, I went to Japan, about 15 years ago. There were smaller hotels that still only took bookings by fax. It was as if they had adopted the cutting edge of the 1970s-80s and then been frozen in time. I'd never used a fax machine and had to search around for web to fax services or find a print shop that offered a fax service. It was so bizarre. I get the impression Japanese corporate culture and government still very much lives in the past, in the days when they were at the forefront of technological innovation.

Yeah it is strange. My worry for Japan is that resisting change within (fighting the G7 targets), and actively campaigning outside against targets that move to zero emissions quickly, will leave them in desperate straits. They are so dependant on the Motor Industry for jobs and foreign income, that if they fall much further behind the rest of the World, they may not be able to catch up, given their neighbour has its eyes on the World motor industry.

I think it's fascinating, as I mentioned before, that they are resisting an internal move to 50% BEV by 2030, when 70% of the market (Europe, China and the US) will beat that date, with Europe and China, possibly only 3 or 4 years away.

I guess the reason I find it hard to process, is that the Japanese often seem to be at the cutting edge, such as HEV's and PHEV's, but as you say their culture is somewhat resistive to change within.

Will be fascinating to watch the numbers now, over the next few years, as we see how adoption of BEV's grows. Looking to other parts of Asia and also Africa, they seem to be enjoying the rise of two and three wheel BEV's, and also some very cheap utilitarian four wheelers. I suspect the tiny Chinese BEV's, like the $5k Wuling Mini EV will do very, very well, as China expands sales outwards.

Exciting times. I'll be eagerly watching the news, and following monthly sales changes, as I think the world has reached a tipping point now(ish).

Martyn1981

Speaking of PHEV's, here's a fun story today about low emission vehicles with more than one power source.

Amazon: e-cargo bikes to replace thousands of van deliveries in London

Amazon is launching a fleet of e-cargo bikes and a team of on-foot delivery staff to replace thousands of van deliveries on London’s roads.

The online retailer is opening its first “micromobility” hub in Hackney, east London, which – along with an existing fleet of electric vehicles – will contribute to 5m deliveries a year across about a 10th of the capital’s ultra low emission zone postcode districts. The bikes will be operated by a variety of partner businesses, not directly by Amazon, it is understood.