Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

And the upcoming milestone mentioned a couple of weeks ago has arrived. Though I think the article could have been a bit clearer at the start that these are BEV's.

Roll on a million, hopefully mid 2024(?)

Electric cars sold in UK passes half a million despite supply chain issues

The number of electric cars sold in the UK has surpassed half a million, according to analysis that underlines the rapid growth in demand despite supply chain problems caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The same article gives some insight into why manufacturers are focussing on EV sales in the UK.

Schmidt added that the manufacturers have been forced to prioritise the UK for battery car deliveries in order to meet CO2 emissions targets. Carmakers face steep fines if they fail to reduce quickly enough the average emissions of the cars they sell.

The targets were originally brought in by the EU, but the UK copied them into law after Brexit. When the UK was in the EU manufacturers could balance out the larger, more polluting cars preferred by Britons with smaller, lower-emissions vehicles preferred in markets such as Italy, but that is no longer the case.

JKenH

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

michaels

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

shinytop

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

It would be a huge change in buying patterns if a premium (£40k plus) car were to become the UK's best seller. If that persisted then in a few years time we would all be driving premium cars. 

I seem to remember new car sales being dominated by small/medium sized Fords,Vauxhalls and VWs.  I know volumes are down but aren't we going to hit a ceiling of people who can afford that much for a car?  

JKenH

shinytop said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

It would be a huge change in buying patterns if a premium (£40k plus) car were to become the UK's best seller. If that persisted then in a few years time we would all be driving premium cars. 

I seem to remember new car sales being dominated by small/medium sized Fords,Vauxhalls and VWs.  I know volumes are down but aren't we going to hit a ceiling of people who can afford that much for a car?  

Ford have cut back production of the Fiesta and Focus which were top 3 staples for most of the last decade to use their chips on more profitable models. I think PCPs and SS schemes have changed the mentality of the car buying public. It’s all about monthly payments now which while related to list price also depends on residual values and interest rates. Ford also used to heavily discount its models so we got used to very cheap Fiesta and Focus models. 

Perhaps the cash buyer faced with paying close to list price the Fords don’t seem quite so attractive now. It’s the same with the Leaf which has historically been heavily discounted so £28k for a Leaf now seems a lot of money to me and the price premium of other EVs has shrunk. (In the case of an N-Connecta Leaf to the cheapest 64kwh e-Niro it was about £12k when I bought my Leaf and now it’s half that).

Tesla’s problem is its limited range of cars. Individual models may be able to top the charts but Tesla will need a wider range of ‘affordable’ models to be top manufacturer. Ford’s top selling car, the Puma, makes up less than a third of its YTD sales whereas the TMY accounts for over half of Tesla’s and didn’t arrive until March. (I don’t have figures for what the  % was for the  TM3 in 2021 but I imagine it must  have been around 90% of Tesla’s sales.

1961Nick

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

With an entry level price of £48,490 it would be virtually impossible for Tesla to be the UK's best selling car in a calendar year. If Tesla ever get round to making the £25,000 hatchback (probably nearer £30K) then they could well have a spell at number1... quarterly probably & annually possibly.

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

With an entry level price of £48,490 it would be virtually impossible for Tesla to be the UK's best selling car in a calendar year. If Tesla ever get round to making the £25,000 hatchback (probably nearer £30K) then they could well have a spell at number1... quarterly probably & annually possibly.

I was just editing my post while you were typing to make a similar point. GM have announced 30 new EVs by 2025 and Toyota will have 30 EVs in their range by 2030. Perhaps none will sell half as well as the top selling Tesla but it is the sheer breadth of the ranges that will be Tesla’s competition, not individual models.

1961Nick

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Supply shortages shackle new car market performance

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2022/07/supply-shortages-shackle-new-car-market-performance/

4k Model Y and about 1700 M 3  Pretty carp Q for Tesla by recent standards but not surprising given Shanghai shutdown.  Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling?!

Could Tesla make the best selling UK car for a quarter or 12 months? Possibly 
Could Tesla become the UK best selling car maker for a quarter or even 12 months rolling? Probably  not, at least not this year. Ford have sold over 60k cars compared to Tesla’s 22k YTD so there’s a lot of catching up for Tesla to do.  Even had they matched their Q1 sales in Q2 Tesla would still only be around half Ford’s figure YTD. Kia is quite close to Ford though. 

With an entry level price of £48,490 it would be virtually impossible for Tesla to be the UK's best selling car in a calendar year. If Tesla ever get round to making the £25,000 hatchback (probably nearer £30K) then they could well have a spell at number1... quarterly probably & annually possibly.

I was just editing my post while you were typing to make a similar point. GM have announced 30 new EVs by 2025 and Toyota will have 30 EVs in their range by 2030. Perhaps none will sell half as well as the top selling Tesla but it is the sheer breadth of the ranges that will be Tesla’s competition, not individual models.

I have a feeling that legacy auto's blueprint of a huge range of vehicles with dozens of variants might have become unsustainable if they want to be competitive. VAG are certainly indicating that their range will be streamlined in the BEV future. 2 pages of options could also become a thing of the past... or become software activated by subscription or one off payment?

One of the key reasons that Tesla's direct selling model works, is because with virtually no options other than wheels & body colour, potential customers often don't need to visit a showroom to make a buying decision. Tesla therefore not only save the cost of manufacturing umpteen variants, they also avoid the running costs of operating the dealership model. It's not so much 'no frills' it's more a case of 'all frills are standard'.

Martyn1981

Yeah, too many models is going to cripple legacy, as they need profits to transition. Also lots of the figures given are just marketing bumpf, as they decide what to do. One company showed a large range of cars (electrified to full BEV) behind the boss as he went on about their future plans. Sadly, one or two cars behind had wheels that went slightly into the ground, so just CGI.

Munro and Associates have just dropped the structural battery pack out of a new TMY 4680, and pointed out again how few parts were in the front and rear structure due to the two large casting pieces. Munro has previously said that to cover the extra cost of these massive casting machines, a (each) factory using them will need to produce 100k+ cars pa.

In a funny way, perhaps we are back in the early Ford Model T days, where they cost a fortune (~$900) and choice was tiny, before falling to sub $400 over about 20yrs.