Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Someone looking for a cheap runabout isn't going to put a BMW M3 or Mercedes C63 AMG on their shopping list. These are the cars that the TM3 competes with & it's £15K cheaper.

There are plenty drivers that aspire to a car with C63/M3 performance, and for some of them, the TM3 has brought that goal a little closer.

And that's fine

My point is using Tesla as an example of affordable EVs or using Tesla to bash the other companies for not electrifying is ridiculous

Tesla has proven a market exists for fast expensive flex EVs at price points of £43,000 and above
Nobody has yet proven a market for EVs at affordable prices that can compete with the polo or golf or even the A4

No one else even has a mass volume (100,000+ EV model) BEV on the market

We are at least two or three generations away (7-10 years) before EVs start to be competitive on the value and middle segments and even most the top segments and that's assuming EV powertrain prices can fall significantly from here. I'm not 100% convinced because just like with solar, prices fall a lot until they don't. A 4KWp solar system has been about £5k for many years now

zeupater

1961Nick wrote: »

Someone looking for a cheap runabout isn't going to put a BMW M3 or Mercedes C63 AMG on their shopping list. These are the cars that the TM3 competes with & it's £15K cheaper.

There are plenty drivers that aspire to a car with C63/M3 performance, and for some of them, the TM3 has brought that goal a little closer.

Hi

Agree, that's exactly what's happening - it's simply a case of the aspiration of those with the means to afford acting as the early adopters as has been the case in almost every release of new technology .... as time passes the volume related manufacturing economies of scale and technical enhancements will allow the required technologies to be migrated throughout the product offering line-up and in time become as affordable as equivalent ICE new vehicles are now which logically means that not everyone will either be able to afford to buy new or simply choose to not buy new, as many do! ... just like now!

By the time BEV/ICE price equivalence happens there'll be plenty of pre-owned EVs listed as available so I really don't see where the problem is ... thousands of used EVs available now will become tens-of-thousands in the future just because people get bored easily and like to show off their shiny new toys for little more than to maintain a mask of status, even if reality means that many can't really afford to do so, aka - living beyond means!

Anyway, that all this mention of TM3 prices having not changed? ... I thought that I'd posted a link to price change history to debunk this days ago ... ah well, I suppose that it's probably the same person arguing on a different thread, so nothing learned then!! ...



HTH
Z

GreatApe

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Agree, that's exactly what's happening - it's simply a case of the aspiration of those with the means to afford acting as the early adopters as has been the case in almost every release of new technology .... as time passes the volume related manufacturing economies of scale and technical enhancements will allow the required technologies to be migrated throughout the product offering line-up and in time become as affordable as equivalent ICE new vehicles are now which logically means that not everyone will either be able to afford to buy new or simply choose to not buy new, as many do! ... just like now!

By the time BEV/ICE price equivalence happens there'll be plenty of pre-owned EVs listed as available so I really don't see where the problem is ... thousands of used EVs available now will become tens-of-thousands in the future just because people get bored easily and like to show off their shiny new toys for little more than to maintain a mask of status, even if reality means that many can't really afford to do so, aka - living beyond means!

Anyway, that all this mention of TM3 prices having not changed? ... I thought that I'd posted a link to price change history to debunk this days ago ... ah well, I suppose that it's probably the same person arguing on a different thread, so nothing learned then!! ...

HTH
Z

Things don't continuously get cheaper

You're.claims were more or less the exact same claims for PV ten years ago
Sure prices kept falling.....until they didn't anymore and the price even today is above FF power stations

The same.is likely true for BEVs
Prices will fall but to a price point above ICE cars

Why am I confident in this prediction?
Well it's 400kg of fairly expensive stuff to make an EV powertrain or 100kg of fairly cheap steel to make an ICE. 400kg of expensive atoms won't be cheaper than 100kg.of cheap atoms irrespective of how much volume or learning goes on


Now EVs don't have to be as cheap as ICE cars
Just like PV doesn't need to be as cheap as coal
People are willing to pay a small premium.for the feel goods
Only they aren't willing or able to pay a large premium for this
As such EVs will be like PV
A slow and steady output that won't change the world overnight but will make a significant difference over 40-60 years

ABrass

$20,000 EV launched in India.

Tata Motors has just launched the home-grown Nexon EV in India for just under US$20,000 (₹1,399,000) with real-world range of around 120 miles (193 km), 1-hour DC charging, 8-year battery and powertrain warranty, and 5-star global NCAP safety rating.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/28/tata-nexon-ev-launches-in-india-from-under-20000-will-it-come-to-europe/

Taking a simple Rupee to pound conversion that's a hair over £15,000. It'd presumably be more if imported and I don't know if that includes any subsidies or taxes which could take the relative price up or down.

But those specs are pretty good. Price parity is approaching.

buglawton

GreatApe wrote: »

What's more important the results of actual real world efficiency from the world suggest maker of actual wireless chargers or some puff piece from some VI looking to get funding and or citations?

There is no use case for wireless charging
He can go out for 15 seconds and plug in/out
Or there can be a robot arm plug it in
Both of those would be cheaper and less energy losses
What exactly does wireless charging offer above and beyond a robot arm plugging in a wire?
Or even chargers and charge ports designed so you can just drive into it at slow speed

A queue of taxis edges towards as passengers board the one at the head of the queue. With every pickup all taxis move forwards one slot. 10 taxi drivers leap out, unplug their chargers, drive forward in unison then leap out again and plug back in.

It would make a delightful comedy sketch!

But I've a solution: You can have a 'charger boy' running up & down the queue doing the plugging so the drivers don't have to get out :rotfl:

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

A queue of taxis edges towards as passengers board the one at the head of the queue. With every pickup all taxis move forwards one slot. 10 taxi drivers leap out, unplug their chargers, drive forward in unison then leap out again and plug back in.

It would make a delightful comedy sketch!

But I've a solution: You can have a 'charger boy' running up & down the queue doing the plugging so the drivers don't have to get out :rotfl:

You're a genius

Wireless charging has its use!!
A huge market of Taxi drivers who earn near or below min wage
And work mostly off these taxi ranks rather than aps or calls
Will not only buy an expensive EV
They will be willing to pay an additional extra that will be at least hundreds perhaps thousands of pounds more
And will be willing to pay for electricity that might cost 50-100p/KWh at a wireless charger because it costs more to install operate and has higher losses

Genius just genius I wish more people were as smart as you!!



Taxi drivers will simply need to buy a a car with enough range to do their daily shift or just stick with their affordable Toyota Corolla/Prius hybrids. 200 mile range is more than enough for most taxi drivers daily shifts then charge at home. For those who need more they can top up 150 miles on a supercharger during a break they don't need to invest in expensive inefficient additional wireless chargers which will add cost and weight and things to go wrong.

almillar

You'd should patent this idea
Just buy everything on credit
It's more affordable that way
You've found the magic money tree ��

PCP? Loans? They're well established and I wouldn't be able to get a patent. I made the post without judgement of anyone who does, or does not, borrow to buy a car. I stated a fact that 'loans' are the most popular way (as it, the most people do it) to buy a new car. That's a fact. You seem to have come back with judgement, or that somehow this system does not work. Can you explain that? Do you think MSE says borrowing is bad? Don't lump it in with EVs anyway, they were the most popular long before EVs came along.

The only pure EV company is Tesla
How much has the model s price fallen since 2012?
How much has the model 3 price fallen by 2017?
Zeee..rooooww ?

Already answered this multiple times. You say prices aren't falling, at the same time as accusing them of being subsidised by other manufacturers. How many ways do you want it?

The Zoe is £25,348 before government bung it is therefore nearly £29,000 pre subsidy
How is that a good deal compared to say £18,000 for a Golf?

I'll stick my neck out and say that it's better specced, quieter, faster and better for the environment than the Golf. Both it its manufacture, and in running. I've sat in both cars and the new Zoe is really nice. Golf is about to be replaced (the reason it's so cheap) so maybe unfair on the Zoe price wise, and the Golf quality wise. And if you're a consumer, buying a car, you take the subsidy off, because you don't pay it. You accept the bung. We're talking about buying EVs here, not manufacturing them.

No one else even has a mass volume (100,000+ EV model) BEV on the market

Renault Zoe, Wikipedia: Since inception, global sales totaled 133,645 units through December 2018.
BMW i3, Wikipedia: 133,397 to end of 2018.
Nissan Leaf, Wikipedia: over 400,000 sold by March 2019.

Do you mean 100,000 per year, and if so, what's the obsession with this number?

Well it's 400kg of fairly expensive stuff to make an EV powertrain or 100kg of fairly cheap steel to make an ICE.

What if the 'stuff' gets cheaper, and the steel, and all the other complex bits that go with it, and any that get added on like cats, gets more expensive? I *get* your raw materials argument, I just don't agree with it.

We are at least two or three generations away (7-10 years) before EVs start to be competitive on the value and middle segments and even most the top segments

Er, what? 7-10 years? I'll go with that. What happened to 50 odd?!!

A huge market of Taxi drivers who earn near or below min wage
And work mostly off these taxi ranks rather than aps or calls
Will not only buy an expensive EV
They will be willing to pay an additional extra that will be at least hundreds perhaps thousands of pounds more
And will be willing to pay for electricity that might cost 50-100p/KWh at a wireless charger because it costs more to install operate and has higher losses

You been to London recently? Plenty of electric black cabs there. You'd love them, there's a tiny petrol engine there too. And stacks of Prius too. They've even installed chargers for the black cabs. If wireless can be added for <£1000 and can be 90% efficient, I'm all for it.

ABrass:

But those specs are pretty good. Price parity is approaching.

BURN THE WITCH WITH COAL

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I *get* your raw materials argument, I just don't agree with it.

How can you disagree with it?

Not only is it ~150 kg atoms Vs ~500kg atoms (M3 is 350kg heavier than Hybrid corrolla)
But it's mostly cheap atoms Vs more expensive atoms. If the price of atoms didn't matter why would Tesla have switched from aluminium for its model S to steel for the model 3?

Before you say well there are expensive atoms in ICE too.... Sure but not a lot hence why you can build and sell ICE cars at a profit for under £9,000 eg i10

Er, what? 7-10 years? I'll go with that. What happened to 50 odd?!!

I'm saying I'm confident it won't happen before then, not that it will happen by then or at all

At some point when AI arrives everything will cost the same...zero... so at some point BEVs will be exactly the same price as ICEs

Until then I see EVs like Solar PV
Prices will fall and fall and fall until they don't
And when they stop falling the price will still be above ICE cars
So their annual deployment will be low
But spread over 30-50 years it will be significant
In the same way how 125GW annual PV install isn't at all signifcant it isn't even enough to stop FF growth let alone cut down on it. However over 30-50 years this 125GW a year will add up to something significant

pile-o-stone

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Agree, that's exactly what's happening - it's simply a case of the aspiration of those with the means to afford acting as the early adopters as has been the case in almost every release of new technology ....
HTH
Z

As you say, it's true of every technology. I remember when CD drives for a desktop computer were over £300 and now they're £15!

My pal bought a DX2 processor for his PC for £400 and I got one about a year later at a quarter of that price. VCRs were hundreds of £s and can now be gotten for free at the dump

With cars it'll be a set price for a while but with larger and larger batteries for the same money. Eventually as they go mainstream the price will fall. With a lot of people using PCP instead of actually buying cars, its the monthly payment they're concerned about not the price of the car as they will never own it. I was offered a Nissan Leaf at £300pm. I have no idea what its purchase cost was.

andrewf75

pile-o-stone wrote: »

With cars it'll be a set price for a while but with larger and larger batteries for the same money. Eventually as they go mainstream the price will fall. With a lot of people using PCP instead of actually buying cars, its the monthly payment they're concerned about not the price of the car as they will never own it. I was offered a Nissan Leaf at £300pm. I have no idea what its purchase cost was.

The next step should be people paying a monthly cost for the shared use of a car, therefore reducing the numbers of cars on the road drastically.

But that's if the government are actually seriously about addressing the problems rather than simply selling us more stuff....