Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

QrizB

michaels said:

Do we know what the average mileage of a scraped leaf is? - I suspect in the UK at least, most are still on the road unless they have had expensive mechanical failure (rare?) or crash damage.

I don't know the mileage but howmanyleft.co.uk has some data on, er, how many are left.

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf

For that particular model, first registered in 2011-2013, the max number taxed was 1859 in 2023Q3 (+28 SORN) and the number in 2021Q4 was 1348 (+113 SORN). That's an attrition rate of ~27% over 8 years.

JKenH

EricMears said:

Does it really matter how long it takes an EV to 'repay its CO2 investment'  ?

Whilst it would be nice to 'repay' it in a few months,  as long as it has been 'repaid' before the car is scrapped the 'nett CO2 cost of ownership' will be negative.  Even if you keep an ICEV  for a hundred years a similar claim could never be made.

It does matter, actually. If we double the size of batteries we are doubling the CO2 emitted NOW. That CO2 hangs around in the atmosphere for around 100 years. The effect is cumulative. 

If we produce a 100kWh battery now it will take (roughly) twice the CO2 emissions to manufacture compared to a 50kWh. So (let’s say) 10 tons of CO2 compared to 5 tons. If the average car EV saves (say) 2 tons of CO2 per year (compared to running an ICE car)  then by building a 100kWh car we have cumulatively added a net 8 tons at the end of year one, 6 tons at the end of year 2, 4 tons year 3, 2 tons at the end of year 2 and zero tons at the end of year 5, -2 tons year 6, - 4 tons year 7 etc. (An EV does not actually reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere it just stops adding to it if run on fossil free fuel. The negative figures are purely CO2 savings compared to an ICE car, not CO2 reductions.)

By comparison a 50kwh car cumulatively adds a net 3 tons at end of year 1, net 1 ton at end of year 2 and -1 at end of year 3, -3 tons at end of year 4 and - 5 tons at end of year 5, - 7 tons year 6, - 9 tons year 7 etc

A 100 kWh car compared to a 50kWh car therefore has added cumulatively  5 tons at the end of year 1, 5 tons at the end of year 2, 5 tons year 3, 5 tons year 4 ad infinitum. That additional 5 tons is always (well we believe for around 100 years) going to hang around providing an additional 5 ton CO2 blanket. Both cars are saving the same CO2 per year for as long as they stay on the road but the additional 5 ton CO2 debt of the bigger battery is never removed from the atmosphere. 

That’s why it matters. 

michaels

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Does it really matter how long it takes an EV to 'repay its CO2 investment'  ?

Whilst it would be nice to 'repay' it in a few months,  as long as it has been 'repaid' before the car is scrapped the 'nett CO2 cost of ownership' will be negative.  Even if you keep an ICEV  for a hundred years a similar claim could never be made.

It does matter, actually. If we double the size of batteries we are doubling the CO2 emitted NOW. That CO2 hangs around in the atmosphere for around 100 years. The effect is cumulative. 

If we produce a 100kWh battery now it will take (roughly) twice the CO2 emissions to manufacture compared to a 50kWh. So (let’s say) 10 tons of CO2 compared to 5 tons. If the average car EV saves (say) 2 tons of CO2 per year (compared to running an ICE car)  then by building a 100kWh car we have cumulatively added a net 8 tons at the end of year one, 6 tons at the end of year 2, 4 tons year 3, 2 tons at the end of year 2 and zero tons at the end of year 5, -2 tons year 6, - 4 tons year 7 etc. (An EV does not actually reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere it just stops adding to it if run on fossil free fuel. The negative figures are purely CO2 savings compared to an ICE car, not CO2 reductions.)

By comparison a 50kwh car cumulatively adds a net 3 tons at end of year 1, net 1 ton at end of year 2 and -1 at end of year 3, -3 tons at end of year 4 and - 5 tons at end of year 5, - 7 tons year 6, - 9 tons year 7 etc

A 100 kWh car compared to a 50kWh car therefore has added cumulatively  5 tons at the end of year 1, 5 tons at the end of year 2, 5 tons year 3, 5 tons year 4 ad infinitum. That additional 5 tons is always (well we believe for around 100 years) going to hang around providing an additional 5 ton CO2 blanket. Both cars are saving the same CO2 per year for as long as they stay on the road but the additional 5 ton CO2 debt of the bigger battery is never removed from the atmosphere. 

That’s why it matters. 

If the 100kwh car eventually does twice the mileage then in theory it can repay the CO2 debt (actually not twice the mileage as the battery is only a proportion of the total manufacturing footprint.

However I suspect a 24kwh leaf scrapped at 15 years and 100k miles has a lower per mile footprint than a model 3 with 200k miles at 20 years old.

1961Nick

QrizB said:

michaels said:

Do we know what the average mileage of a scraped leaf is? - I suspect in the UK at least, most are still on the road unless they have had expensive mechanical failure (rare?) or crash damage.

I don't know the mileage but howmanyleft.co.uk has some data on, er, how many are left.

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf

For that particular model, first registered in 2011-2013, the max number taxed was 1859 in 2023Q3 (+28 SORN) and the number in 2021Q4 was 1348 (+113 SORN). That's an attrition rate of ~27% over 8 years.

The attribution rate for a Model S of similar vintage is around 10%. The difference is the S can afford to lose a much bigger percentage of it’s battery capacity before it’s no longer viable. 

The early Leafs are also hampered by the fact that the value of a recovered battery pack is often more than the whole vehicle. Quite a few appear to have been broken for their batteries.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

EricMears said:

Does it really matter how long it takes an EV to 'repay its CO2 investment'  ?

Whilst it would be nice to 'repay' it in a few months,  as long as it has been 'repaid' before the car is scrapped the 'nett CO2 cost of ownership' will be negative.  Even if you keep an ICEV  for a hundred years a similar claim could never be made.

It does matter, actually. If we double the size of batteries we are doubling the CO2 emitted NOW. That CO2 hangs around in the atmosphere for around 100 years. The effect is cumulative. 

If we produce a 100kWh battery now it will take (roughly) twice the CO2 emissions to manufacture compared to a 50kWh. So (let’s say) 10 tons of CO2 compared to 5 tons. If the average car EV saves (say) 2 tons of CO2 per year (compared to running an ICE car)  then by building a 100kWh car we have cumulatively added a net 8 tons at the end of year one, 6 tons at the end of year 2, 4 tons year 3, 2 tons at the end of year 2 and zero tons at the end of year 5, -2 tons year 6, - 4 tons year 7 etc. (An EV does not actually reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere it just stops adding to it if run on fossil free fuel. The negative figures are purely CO2 savings compared to an ICE car, not CO2 reductions.)

By comparison a 50kwh car cumulatively adds a net 3 tons at end of year 1, net 1 ton at end of year 2 and -1 at end of year 3, -3 tons at end of year 4 and - 5 tons at end of year 5, - 7 tons year 6, - 9 tons year 7 etc

A 100 kWh car compared to a 50kWh car therefore has added cumulatively  5 tons at the end of year 1, 5 tons at the end of year 2, 5 tons year 3, 5 tons year 4 ad infinitum. That additional 5 tons is always (well we believe for around 100 years) going to hang around providing an additional 5 ton CO2 blanket. Both cars are saving the same CO2 per year for as long as they stay on the road but the additional 5 ton CO2 debt of the bigger battery is never removed from the atmosphere. 

That’s why it matters. 

If the 100kwh car eventually does twice the mileage then in theory it can repay the CO2 debt (actually not twice the mileage as the battery is only a proportion of the total manufacturing footprint.

Actually it can’t if you are only considering the battery element.  If you compare the environmental impact of a 100 kwh battery now with a 50kwh battery now and a replacement 50kWh battery in 15 years time (assuming the same technology) then the total CO2 added to the atmosphere will be the same but with the 100kWh battery half of the CO2 used in manufacturing the battery will have been there for an extra 15 years. The planet will have been wearing that 5 ton CO2 blanket for an extra 15 years which will have contributed to more warming. 

We are all hoping that in 15 years time battery manufacture will be much greener - powered by more RE - as well. That wasn’t actually part of my argument but it is worth bearing in mind. In 15 years time battery recycling will be well advanced so the old battery coming out will yield hopefully most of the materials required to build a replacement battery and coupled with much more RE the CO2 impact of future batteries will be much reduced. Given that we are aiming to keep total CO2 emissions down it is better to put in the smallest practical batteries now and put them in more cars. Battery availability is and will continue for some time to be a constraining factor on EV roll out and 100kWh spread over 2 cars is better for the environment than 100kWh in one. 

We are already talking about batteries outlasting the life of the car so I doubt in years to come the size of the battery will be the critical factor in a vehicle’s life any more than the engine in an ICE car is what limits its life (usually it is an MOT failure that does for most cars).

Like most people I want a bigger battery in the next EV I buy even though I know that it is worse for the environment than replacing with another 40kWh car  I understand why people don’t want to accept the argument I am making but what works for us best personally isn’t always what is best for the planet. 

JKenH

Fiat to only sell electrified* cars in the UK from July

* includes hybrids

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/355176/fiat-only-sell-electrified-cars-uk-july

zeupater

QrizB said:

michaels said:

Do we know what the average mileage of a scraped leaf is? - I suspect in the UK at least, most are still on the road unless they have had expensive mechanical failure (rare?) or crash damage.

I don't know the mileage but howmanyleft.co.uk has some data on, er, how many are left.

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf

For that particular model, first registered in 2011-2013, the max number taxed was 1859 in 2023Q3 (+28 SORN) and the number in 2021Q4 was 1348 (+113 SORN). That's an attrition rate of ~27% over 8 years.

Hi

I don't think that from simply taking the change in DVLC taxation status numbers over the period it's possible to infer that vehicles have been scrapped ... from memory (IIRC) it was reported a few years back that somewhere around ~20% of vehicles registered in the UK are eventually exported, so that may explain the disposition of a considerable proportion of the "~27% over 8 years"  mentioned, especially so considering potential demand for relatively cheap RHD leaf EVs around the world when UK used EV prices hadn't rocketed ...

Just food for thought ...

HTH - Z ...

michaels

zeupater said:

QrizB said:

michaels said:

Do we know what the average mileage of a scraped leaf is? - I suspect in the UK at least, most are still on the road unless they have had expensive mechanical failure (rare?) or crash damage.

I don't know the mileage but howmanyleft.co.uk has some data on, er, how many are left.

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf

For that particular model, first registered in 2011-2013, the max number taxed was 1859 in 2023Q3 (+28 SORN) and the number in 2021Q4 was 1348 (+113 SORN). That's an attrition rate of ~27% over 8 years.

Hi

I don't think that from simply taking the change in DVLC taxation status numbers over the period it's possible to infer that vehicles have been scrapped ... from memory (IIRC) it was reported a few years back that somewhere around ~20% of vehicles registered in the UK are eventually exported, so that may explain the disposition of a considerable proportion of the "~27% over 8 years"  mentioned, especially so considering potential demand for relatively cheap RHD leaf EVs around the world when UK used EV prices hadn't rocketed ...

Just food for thought ...

HTH - Z ...

Have we compared with similar non-EVs - for example a Nissan Pulsar to see if the attrition rate is higher (I would expect it to be because EV accident repairs are more costly and EV value as scrap is also higher)

JKenH

There certainly is demand for the Leaf electric drive train parts in addition to the battery. My son paid around £1k for an inverter/motor assembly from a 30kwh Leaf for an ICE conversion project he is working on.

CKhalvashi

michaels said:

zeupater said:

QrizB said:

michaels said:

Do we know what the average mileage of a scraped leaf is? - I suspect in the UK at least, most are still on the road unless they have had expensive mechanical failure (rare?) or crash damage.

I don't know the mileage but howmanyleft.co.uk has some data on, er, how many are left.

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf

For that particular model, first registered in 2011-2013, the max number taxed was 1859 in 2023Q3 (+28 SORN) and the number in 2021Q4 was 1348 (+113 SORN). That's an attrition rate of ~27% over 8 years.

Hi

I don't think that from simply taking the change in DVLC taxation status numbers over the period it's possible to infer that vehicles have been scrapped ... from memory (IIRC) it was reported a few years back that somewhere around ~20% of vehicles registered in the UK are eventually exported, so that may explain the disposition of a considerable proportion of the "~27% over 8 years"  mentioned, especially so considering potential demand for relatively cheap RHD leaf EVs around the world when UK used EV prices hadn't rocketed ...

Just food for thought ...

HTH - Z ...

Have we compared with similar non-EVs - for example a Nissan Pulsar to see if the attrition rate is higher (I would expect it to be because EV accident repairs are more costly and EV value as scrap is also higher)

I've seen RHD Leafs on the back of a lorry in Eastern Europe more than once. These didn't look like Japanese spec ones (not easy to explain, but if you know the subtle differences you know).

RHD non-EVs frequently appear on OLX in Poland, mainly on UK plates, but the above is not Poland.