Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

orrery said:

JKenH said:

Once the current supply crisis is over then those sort of discounts will reappear on less popular ICE models.

... and as we approach a more mature EV market, we'll see routine discounts appear there too, but this may take some while.

There are a lot of things that we just can't factor in, because we just don't know. What will happen to s/h and residual prices of ICE and EVs as we approach 2030? We may see ICE prices firm up, as people dash to grab an ICE before the deadline, but we may have already started to see ICE prices fall as garages close and petrol prices start to climb.

I've just got an Enyaq on a 4 year PCP, so that will go back as s/h in 2026, so these dates are approaching fast.

And ironically, we may also have to consider rising ICEV costs as manufacturers lose profitability on ICEV lines as sales fall. Profits aren't linear, and tend to be made on the top 10% or 20% of sales, with the other sales covering costs.

I don't know if this is possible, but legacy auto may try to drop some models, hoping to maintain sales number on the remaining lines. Better to lose one out of 10 lines, than lose 10% of sales across all lines?

But the disaster rapidly approaching for legacy, is that they can't ramp up BEV sales as fast as ICEV sales fall, thus maintaining revenue and profits to fund BEV investment. Going to be a tough decade for legacy auto as we head for a tipping point where it's simply a bad investment to buy an ICEV, which could result in ever faster falling demand for ICEV's and lack of profits and cashflow just when they need it most.

JKenH

The disaster for legacy auto at the moment is that they can’t meet demand for either ICE or EVs because of chip/materials/part shortages. JLR have stopped taking orders for some models because they don’t want to quote delivery times of more than 12 months. 

This has impacted on secondhand prices and hence residuals. A 2 year old 1.6tdi VW Golf Match is now around £20,000 from a main dealer.  When I bought a 2 year old example of the same model in 2019 from a main dealer I paid just under £12,000. 

CKhalvashi

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

PCP / lease tricks and company car tax may work for the first owner but someone, somewhere has to meet this uplift across the life of the vehicle.  The delta of £25k is too great to support the mass conversion to EV.  Plus, that is using interpretations that would work towards making the EV become more favourable.

This has been troubling me for some while as everybody now seems able to afford premium marques on PCP or lease because of the higher residual values. Once upon a time fleets were made up of Vauxhalls and Fords but now you are more likely to see Mercs, Audis and BMWs. Ditto with the private purchaser buying on PCP. 

For this to work it relies on used car buyers being prepared to shell out extra for a premium brand which so far they seem willing to do. With the premium brands though come premium parts prices and you would expect the bubble to burst sometime soon. Some people were expecting this to happen around 2020 then COVID came to the rescue and the shortage of new vehicles is keeping used prices high so it will go on a little longer.

Pre COVID there were huge discounts available on some premium brand vehicles. Back in 2015 I got around 30% discount on a new Mercedes and I think discounts of around 40% were available on some S Class models (if not new, then on pre registered models). Once the current supply crisis is over then those sort of discounts will reappear on less popular ICE models.

The other issue here is going to be the pricing for higher mileage used EV's, especially from those who need the longer range (sales rep types).

I'm down to about 20k miles/year now, but if I end up doing several drives to Poland (where we have temporarily relocated our Customer Service Centre from Ukraine), the mileage will end up rising quickly. Luckily Wroclaw is close to Germany, but we are planning to expand the services offered from this office so may end up with multi-city offices as a lot of smaller office space has been turned into hostel space in Poland pre-invasion for city centre tourism purposes, and even more so now as a temporary measure outside the centres, and rightly so.

It's going to be interesting to see if values hold on a 3 year old, 150k mile executive-style car over the long term.

Coastalwatch

Reckon we could all agree that this a good move and money well spent by our government in helping to reduce pollution in urban areas. When I think back to the days when an evening in a pub meant all clothing had to be discarded and put in the wash. What controversy there was about banning smoking in such premises. Not sure many who remember would wish for a return to such conditions today!

ZEBRA: UK Gov’ funds nearly 1,000 zero-emission buses

The British Government, through its Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas (ZEBRA) scheme, has granted £198Mn to twelve towns and cities. The money will fund 943 battery-electric and hydrogen buses plus associated infrastructure and is the largest funding route to date.

The second instalment of ZEBRA is equivalent to €237Mn and much more than was spent earlier. The first round in November 2021 resulted in 335 zero-emission vehicles coming to towns in England as the DfT granted £71Mn.

In addition, Coventry reportedly became the UK’s first All-Electric Bus City with 300 electric buses with another 100 having come through previous schemes.

https://www.electrive.com/2022/03/28/zebra-uk-gov-funds-nearly-1000-zero-emission-buses/

JKenH

Coastalwatch said:

Reckon we could all agree that this a good move and money well spent by our government in helping to reduce pollution in urban areas. When I think back to the days when an evening in a pub meant all clothing had to be discarded and put in the wash. What controversy there was about banning smoking in such premises. Not sure many who remember would wish for a return to such conditions today!

ZEBRA: UK Gov’ funds nearly 1,000 zero-emission buses

The British Government, through its Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas (ZEBRA) scheme, has granted £198Mn to twelve towns and cities. The money will fund 943 battery-electric and hydrogen buses plus associated infrastructure and is the largest funding route to date.

The second instalment of ZEBRA is equivalent to €237Mn and much more than was spent earlier. The first round in November 2021 resulted in 335 zero-emission vehicles coming to towns in England as the DfT granted £71Mn.

In addition, Coventry reportedly became the UK’s first All-Electric Bus City with 300 electric buses with another 100 having come through previous schemes.

https://www.electrive.com/2022/03/28/zebra-uk-gov-funds-nearly-1000-zero-emission-buses/

Never missed a Friday or Saturday night in a smoke filled pub - loved it. Proper pubs don’t exist anymore - no atmosphere now 😉.

Martyn1981

I don't think this will surprise any BEV'ers (is that a thing?) on here, but nice to see the experts suggesting 15yrs+ for BEV batteries. But just as ICEV's get less reliable and take on secondary roles as they age, I think it's reasonable to assume that those ageing BEV's, with some range degradation, will simply make for excellent second cars, young drivers first cars, perhaps even (expensive) gifts from parents to children, when they buy a house or go to college, to help minimise their monthly fuel bills.

Tesla Founder, Ex-CTO Says EV Batteries Will Last 15 Years

“It’s a subjective thing depending on what people’s goal is for the car,” says Straubel. “… but I think it’s going to easily be 15 years in most cases. I think battery life will probably track the life of the vehicle life. Personally, I think it’s less likely that people will place a new battery in an old car.”

JKenH

Teslas to get 28% higher energy density LFP cells

https://youtu.be/9LvS8tuABEc

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

I don't think this will surprise any BEV'ers (is that a thing?) on here, but nice to see the experts suggesting 15yrs+ for BEV batteries. But just as ICEV's get less reliable and take on secondary roles as they age, I think it's reasonable to assume that those ageing BEV's, with some range degradation, will simply make for excellent second cars, young drivers first cars, perhaps even (expensive) gifts from parents to children, when they buy a house or go to college, to help minimise their monthly fuel bills.

In a similar vein, I'm in need of a new car (I had the last one put down) so I've been browsing the virtual pages of AutoTrader for a few weeks.

I'm beginning to see £5k Leafs again, but we're not quite back to the days of £4k ones.

JKenH

It has been pointed out on another thread just how dirty our electricity generation currently is in the East Midlands, averaging 535gCO2/kWh and that is the average!

If you put your car on to charge here the marginal generation would be coming from coal at 937gCO2\kWh, or around 200gCO2/km. 

https://carbonintensity.org.uk/

JKenH

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

I don't think this will surprise any BEV'ers (is that a thing?) on here, but nice to see the experts suggesting 15yrs+ for BEV batteries. But just as ICEV's get less reliable and take on secondary roles as they age, I think it's reasonable to assume that those ageing BEV's, with some range degradation, will simply make for excellent second cars, young drivers first cars, perhaps even (expensive) gifts from parents to children, when they buy a house or go to college, to help minimise their monthly fuel bills.

In a similar vein, I'm in need of a new car (I had the last one put down) so I've been browsing the virtual pages of AutoTrader for a few weeks.

I'm beginning to see £5k Leafs again, but we're not quite back to the days of £4k ones.

If you are seriously interested join the UK Nissan Leaf Owners Facebook group.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/UKNissanLEAFOwnersGroup/?ref=share