Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

I have my doubts about the current hardware being adequate for the transition to robo-taxis. If Tesla want regulatory approval for robo-taxi use, they may have to go down the geofencing/mapping path & possibly reintroduce lidar.

Hiya Nick, I watched this episode of Tesla Daily and thought you may be interested, as Steve Westly really seems to have his finger on the pulse of current BEV issues, and very complimentary and supportive of Elon. However, in the last 1/4 or so of the vid they discuss Tesla's and LIDAR, and he strongly believes that Elon has got it wrong, and is digging in his heels on the issue.

Just a fun piece, but fits reasonably well with what you said/suggested. But of course carries the risk of 'betting against Elon'.

Former Tesla Board Member Steve Westly on Elon Musk, Tesla, & Venture Capital

Martyn1981

Very good news for VWG and BEV's in general.

Legacy auto face a major problem with the need to invest £bn's in the transition to BEV's, whilst their sales, profits and cashflow reduce from falling ICE sales. So this news suggests that VWG (and others?) can make the transition, and we need them to survive to maximise the speed of the transition. So good news all round hopefully.

Volkswagen Says EV Operations Will Be Profitable Earlier Than Expected

Prior to the Volkswagen Group annual meeting on March 15, the company told the press that several of its electric car models, including the Porsche Taycan, are sold out through the end of 2022. In addition, high demand is helping its electric car business become as profitable as its conventional car business more quickly than expected.

According to CFO Arno Antlitz, “We see better scale, we see better margins, we see high customer demand. Originally we thought it takes two to three years until we see the [profit] parity of ICE and battery-electric vehicles.”

Volkswagen has worked for several years on an aggressive plan to transition to electric vehicles, aiming to have EVs account for half of its global production by 2030. While the plan isn’t expected to hit its full stride until the middle of this decade, it’s already bearing fruit.

shinytop

Martyn1981 said:

Very good news for VWG and BEV's in general.

Legacy auto face a major problem with the need to invest £bn's in the transition to BEV's, whilst their sales, profits and cashflow reduce from falling ICE sales. So this news suggests that VWG (and others?) can make the transition, and we need them to survive to maximise the speed of the transition. So good news all round hopefully.

Volkswagen Says EV Operations Will Be Profitable Earlier Than Expected

Prior to the Volkswagen Group annual meeting on March 15, the company told the press that several of its electric car models, including the Porsche Taycan, are sold out through the end of 2022. In addition, high demand is helping its electric car business become as profitable as its conventional car business more quickly than expected.

According to CFO Arno Antlitz, “We see better scale, we see better margins, we see high customer demand. Originally we thought it takes two to three years until we see the [profit] parity of ICE and battery-electric vehicles.”

Volkswagen has worked for several years on an aggressive plan to transition to electric vehicles, aiming to have EVs account for half of its global production by 2030. While the plan isn’t expected to hit its full stride until the middle of this decade, it’s already bearing fruit.

Good for VWG but maybe not so good for customers?  High demand and better margins = higher prices = higher profits. 

Porsche Taycans aren't going to save the planet.

But better than them struggling and stalling. 

1961Nick

I'm quite optimistic that Ford will be an EV success story on the back of the F150 Lightening. The pre-orders & the market are there, the only question mark being Ford's ability to ramp up production & source enough batteries. I also suspect that Ford will be able to increase the F150 price in line with increasing raw material cost, but without significantly affecting the order book.

NA Ford dealers are already discussing how much over list they can ask for the early allocation. 

Martyn1981

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Just an out loud ponder, but speaking of e-fuels, if some countries have ~5% ethanol in petrol, then steadily removing the demand for petrol over the next few decades, might slowly free up more and more of that fuel for harder to tackle transportation?

Germany Gets On Board With EU ICE Ban

The European Union is in favor of banning the sale of cars with infernal combustion engines by 2035, but Germany has been reluctant to join in that commitment. Automobile manufacturing is big business in Germany, what with Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, BMW, and Mercedes Benz, plus Tier One suppliers like Bosch, Siemens, and Continental accounting for hundreds of thousands of jobs directly related to automobile production.

Last year, the Greens, Social Democrats, and Free Democrats all called for ending the sale of gasoline and diesel cars in accordance with the proposed 2035 moratorium on selling gasoline- and diesel-powered cars. That agreement would have allowed cars to continue using e-fuels — synthetic fuels that are chemically similar to fossil fuels — after 2035.

But Lemke said Berlin will now clearly support the original Commission position, leaving no room for e-fuels. The government backs “all elements” of the Commission’s proposals, she said, calling Berlin’s readiness to accept Brussels’ plans a “very big step forward.”

orrery

Martyn1981 said:

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Their problem is that, even the 'experts' underestimate the pace of disruptive change. Kodak invented the digital camera and then went bankrupt through the loss of film sales just 10 years later.

EV sales have been exponential for years now, roughly doubling (or more) each year. Like all such curves, it will settle down to an 'S' shape, starting to slow as we pass 50% of sales, assuming manufacturers can keep pace. But at that point, we'll see the price of EVs dropping and fuel stations closing or converting to rapid charge points only.

It will all be over well before 2035.

Our own government never wants to interfere in the market, but has seen that it will all be (as far as sales are concerned) over, bar the shouting, by 2030 hence their acceptance of the ban by that date.

shinytop

orrery said:

Martyn1981 said:

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Their problem is that, even the 'experts' underestimate the pace of disruptive change. Kodak invented the digital camera and then went bankrupt through the loss of film sales just 10 years later.

EV sales have been exponential for years now, roughly doubling (or more) each year. Like all such curves, it will settle down to an 'S' shape, starting to slow as we pass 50% of sales, assuming manufacturers can keep pace. But at that point, we'll see the price of EVs dropping and fuel stations closing or converting to rapid charge points only.

It will all be over well before 2035.

Our own government never wants to interfere in the market, but has seen that it will all be (as far as sales are concerned) over, bar the shouting, by 2030 hence their acceptance of the ban by that date.

But digital is/was much better than film in almost every way. 

NigeWick

orrery said:

Martyn1981 said:

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Their problem is that, even the 'experts' underestimate the pace of disruptive change. Kodak invented the digital camera and then went bankrupt through the loss of film sales just 10 years later.

EV sales have been exponential for years now, roughly doubling (or more) each year. Like all such curves, it will settle down to an 'S' shape, starting to slow as we pass 50% of sales, assuming manufacturers can keep pace. But at that point, we'll see the price of EVs dropping and fuel stations closing or converting to rapid charge points only.

It will all be over well before 2035.

Our own government never wants to interfere in the market, but has seen that it will all be (as far as sales are concerned) over, bar the shouting, by 2030 hence their acceptance of the ban by that date.

The price of BEVs will be less than ICE vehicles once batteries get below US$100 per kWh and that is looking like being within two years. Then once manufacturers ramp up production we'll get economies of scale added to the mix. I suspect Tesla's $25,000 vehicle will be announced at the back end of this year and production will start in two years time. I think the tapering off of the 'S' comes at more like 80% rather than 50%.

All that said, I have been wrong innumerable times before...

QrizB

shinytop said:

orrery said:

Martyn1981 said:

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Their problem is that, even the 'experts' underestimate the pace of disruptive change. Kodak invented the digital camera and then went bankrupt through the loss of film sales just 10 years later.

But digital is/was much better than film in almost every way. 

*Now* it is.

I remember digital cameras from 20 years ago. Battery life was poor, resolution limited, cameras were expensive.

My first child was born in 2004 and almost all our photos of their pre-school years are film, not digital, because film was so much better then.

My first halfways-acceptable digital camera was a Kodak Easychare C340. Here's a contemporary review:
https://www.cnet.com/reviews/kodak-easyshare-c340-review/

QrizB

NigeWick said:

orrery said:

Martyn1981 said:

Germany to ban ICE sales by 2035, but confused me slightly as I thought they were going BEV by then anyway, but this seems to go beyond FF's to account for e-fuels too.

Their problem is that, even the 'experts' underestimate the pace of disruptive change. Kodak invented the digital camera and then went bankrupt through the loss of film sales just 10 years later.

EV sales have been exponential for years now, roughly doubling (or more) each year. Like all such curves, it will settle down to an 'S' shape, starting to slow as we pass 50% of sales, assuming manufacturers can keep pace. But at that point, we'll see the price of EVs dropping and fuel stations closing or converting to rapid charge points only.

It will all be over well before 2035.

Our own government never wants to interfere in the market, but has seen that it will all be (as far as sales are concerned) over, bar the shouting, by 2030 hence their acceptance of the ban by that date.

The price of BEVs will be less than ICE vehicles once batteries get below US$100 per kWh and that is looking like being within two years.

It was looking to be *this* year before all the COVID supply-chain issues.