Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Just a thought, don't know if anyone is interested, but I've been chatting on other forums about Ford and GM, and it looks like they are in for an absolute world of hurt.
The moment they start talking up BEV's they risk their customers waiting for them (the Osborne Effect) and their sales, cash and profits collapse. In the case of Ford, their losses increase. Even if they only lose a small percentage of sales, perhaps 10-15%, this might be enough to wipe out profitability as annual production runs lose the profit element off the top.
If they can drag things out slowly enough, and transition fast enough then they have a chance. For instance GM got a boost since they are talking big about BEV's going forward, they may even transition 40% of N. American sales by 2025 according to their claims, around 1m BEV's in total . But Reuters investigation early last year, based on the production plans they have with their suppliers is only 320,000 vehicles by 2026 ...... in fact that 320,000 figure is the combined figure for GM and Ford.

So we have two companies, already struggling financially, with business models based largely on leasing (with residual values expected to fall as BEV sales rise), having to invest $10bn's in BEV production, whilst writing down ICEV based assets, and having high financing rates. They also have the problem of selling at wholesale prices through their dealership networks, and the vast cost of buying those out if they have to take that route. [Recently GM paid $400m to buy out just 17% of their Cadillac dealerships, which is only a small(ish) sub brand.]

They might manage it, or there might be a bloodbath. Either way, this decade is going to be fascinating as we watch the old guard try to compete with the EV start ups ...... or merge with them perhaps.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

What an odd article. It states that shares were at $51.53 last week, which is true they were, but then uses that figure for 'so far this year' despite them closing at $49.97 on Friday. Even says they are up 20% this year so far (article dated 16th Jan) despite them being up 16.67% (v's 17.1% for Tesla).

Fingers crossed they and Ford don't go bust this decade, or have to merge like FCA did recently with PSA.

GM’s share price at close on 31/12/2020 was $41.64 and at close on 15/01/2021 was £49.97, an increase of 20% as reported. 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gm/historical

Martyn1981

JKenH said:

Martyn1981 said:

What an odd article. It states that shares were at $51.53 last week, which is true they were, but then uses that figure for 'so far this year' despite them closing at $49.97 on Friday. Even says they are up 20% this year so far (article dated 16th Jan) despite them being up 16.67% (v's 17.1% for Tesla).

Fingers crossed they and Ford don't go bust this decade, or have to merge like FCA did recently with PSA.

GM’s share price at close on 31/12/2020 was $41.64 and at close on 15/01/2021 was £49.97, an increase of 20% as reported. 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gm/historical

My apologies, my mouse must have scrolled a few days. [Edit - Nope, wrong again, I divided the difference by the wrong price. M.]
Nice to see GM up on their BEV promises, though I sadly doubt they will achieve them. I think falling (again) for their Bolt promises has now jaded me with respect to them actually taking this issue seriously enough, soon enough.
But best of luck to them, we need as many BEV's as possible.
Ford might stand a chance thanks to their tie up with Rivian.
Going to be one hell of a show.

Martyn1981

Ok, turned out to be a link to a rather dry report, but even so the list is important, and I think(?) all points are happening, to a degree, here in the UK.

5 Key Steps For Electric Bus Success In Europe

Based on the research and analysis, the following five key success criteria emerged:
 1) Political leadership often with an e-bus champion, or champion, is vital. This in turn leads to the knowledge-sharing, collaboration and alliance-building needed to put ebuses on the road;
 2) Financial support is central to e-bus roll-out, noting that analysis of total costs of ownership (TCO) increasingly shows that e-buses can have lower lifetime costs than comparable fossil fuel vehicles.
 3) Trialling, monitoring and evaluation in order to ensure the technology performs optimally over its lifetime and achieves desired outcomes;
 4) Proactive and innovative procurement to set the foundations for successful and cost effective e-bus implementation; and
 5) A considered and integrated design of e-bus services, which is complete, practical and user-centric.

Martyn1981

Carbon Commentary Newsletter extract(s)

6, Solar-powered electric car. Sono Motors launched its solar powered electric car at the Consumer Electronics Show (‘CES’). Virtually, of course. This car is priced at around €26,000 including sales taxes, making it relatively cheap for an EV. The 128 separate solar panels that coat the outside of the car can provide a daily driving range of 35 km in a sunny country. That nearly covers the average use of a European motorist. (Thanks to Gage Williams).

JKenH

UK Produces First Battery-Grade Lithium At Home

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Produces-First-Battery-Grade-Lithium-At-Home.html

michaels

https://electrek.co/2021/01/18/gm-invests-800-million-brightdrop-electric-vans-canada/

One of many pieces on new electric vans - are we about to see a flipping point where the economics of electric vans mean we see ice vans disappear very quickly?

Martyn1981

Change driven by young students, how greta is that.

Miami-Dade Starts Transition To Electric School Bus Fleet

Miami-Dade County Public Schools has made the decision to convert its fleet from diesel buses into an electric fleet. This push was driven by Holly Thorpe, a middle school student who used her science fair project to convince the school board that this switch was necessary.

Thorpe’s investigation found several alarming conclusions — more alarming than she expected. She found that carbon dioxide fumes inside buses were 10 times higher than the limits recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 10 times higher! Inside buses holding schoolchildren! After presenting her findings to school board members and urging them to switch to zero-emission buses, the district decided to take its first step one year later. The step they decided to take is great for students in Miami-Dade County, but it shows just how thick the red tape is — it took them a year to make the first step.

Martyn1981

Got quite excited when I saw this title, but as I read on it got a bit less impressive with these lines:

The batteries can be fully charged in five minutes but this would require much higher-powered chargers than used today. Using available charging infrastructure, StoreDot is aiming to deliver 100 miles of charge to a car battery in five minutes in 2025.

Sorry to go 'all Tesla' but the V3 chargers can charge big batt 3's & Y's at 250kW, or 1,000mph or 100 miles in ~6mins at the moment.

But then got excited again as it went on:

Research by Wang’s group is being developed by the company EC Power, which he founded. It carefully increases the temperature of the battery to 60C, which enables the lithium ions to move faster, but avoids the damage to the battery usually caused by heat. He said this allowed a full charge in 10 minutes.

and

Wang noted that fast charging must also be repeatable at least 500 times without degrading the battery to give it a reasonable life and that the EC power battery can do so 2,500 times. Myersdorf said the StoreDot battery could be recharged 1,000 cycles while retaining 80% of original capacity.

both of which suggest to me the ability to charge a smaller battery at these fast rates, with an acceptable penalty (80% capacity after 200k miles), which is impressive ..... I think.

Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced

Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles.

Electric vehicles are a vital part of action to tackle the climate crisis but running out of charge during a journey is a worry for drivers. The new lithium-ion batteries were developed by the Israeli company StoreDot and manufactured by Eve Energy in China on standard production lines.

JKenH

The true cost of charging an electric car using public chargers revealed

As I pointed out a few days ago if you don’t have access to home charging the cost of fuelling an EV can be as high as an ICEV (or higher if you choose the wrong public charger). 

In fact, using the Ionity charger takes away one of the big advantages of EVs: that they’re usually cheaper to run than their conventionally powered counterparts. Based on What Car?’s True MPG fuel economy figures, a diesel Audi Q750 TDI averages 27.2mpg, and that means it costs 22 pence per mile to drive. When exclusively using Ionity chargers, the similar-sized E-tron costs 34 pence per mile.

https://www.whatcar.com/news/the-true-cost-of-charging-an-electric-car-using-public-chargers-revealed/n21008