Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Bit embarrassing as I've forgotten where I saw this, but apparently (I'm leaving wiggle room) Tesla has overtaken BYD for most EV's built (ever) to take the No.1 spot. In fairness though to BYD, they've built a lot of buses, which are so important for reducing transport emissions, but also, I think the BYD figures also include PHEV's.

I'm guessing VW are up to the challenge though, going forward, and I assume Nissan are in the running too, and perhaps Toyota ahead due to PHEV's. All good news, but the more I think about it, the more I'm starting to doubt the claim(s) if HEV's are included.

I'll shut up now.

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

For those of us lucky enough to have solar panels and be at home in the daytime there are probably 6 months in the year when a BEV can be run from solar PV. (I imagine there is a high correlation between domestic PV and EV ownership.) As BEVs become more mainstream and wind power develops further the grid will be structured to accommodate overnight charging. Workplace charging might well also lead to roll out of more solar PV specifically for that purpose.particularly in sunnier climes. The argument that all the energy they consume is marginal generation powered by !!!!!! will then apply to a much more limited extent.

This is true only for a fraction of the time and yes that fraction will increase but very slowly.
You also need to factor in the fact that UK will be taking a few steps forward (deploying more wind) but also a few steps backwards (closing the old nukes in 2023/4) so that the position of the grid won't be substantially better come 2025 as it is in 2020

BEVs will either be fully green or fully gas powered in the UK at the point of charging
Yes the proportion of times they are fully green should grow as more wind is deployed
However right now the times they are fully green is low and not expected to greatly increase

As a proxy you can look at the agile tariff and anytime the price on that tariff is below 3p is likely marginal wind and other times marginal gas. Perhaps for around 0.5% of the time it's marginal green in 2019

The UK looks just about okay for BEVs but this is due to the coal phase out
The big auto markets of the world, China&Germsny is marginal coal, USA/Japan are marginal coal/gas. Where they are marginal coal it's 50% worse Vs a hybrid

The trick is most BEV cheerleaders compare a BEV to a low efficiency ICE rather than a Hybrid
They also confidently ignore the fact that while BEVs are efficient per mile they also self discharge have standing losses and you need to heat the cabin in winter which grabs the headline 4.2 miles per kWh to something closer to 3.2 miles per KWh

Overall my argument is BEVs don't offer much carbon saving Vs a hybrid in fact for the too 4 markets which are coal or a mix of coal and gas they emmit more CO2 than a hybrid

There are some exceptions to this
France and Norway for instance are already marginal green most the time so effectively their BEVs emmit zero carbon most the time

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

For those of us lucky enough to have solar panels and be at home in the daytime there are probably 6 months in the year when a BEV can be run from solar PV

If you are connected to the grid this is fake accounting

Say I have solar and I export 1000 units well that's 1000 units less gas the country burns
If I get an EV and instead use those 1000 units for the car well my car might be 100% solar but the nation now needs to produce 1000 more units from gas fired stations since I am no longer exporting to the grid.

Irrespective of if you have solar or not a BEV charged on a grid connected point is adding to marginal demand


BTW there is a way to fix this partially

BEVs can be built with solar roof
This way the car can self charge 15 miles a day as per Elon tweet (in sunny locations)
This would mean about 50% of miles are indeed solar the other 50% would be coal or gas but even if it was coal it would be more efficient than the hybrid by 25% and if gas fired 60% more efficient than the hybrid

But hybrids can fight back by having a tiny additional battery of as low as 15 mile range and they too would then be 50% solar 50% petrol

In fact that would be the very best option for the next 20 years
Solar BEVs and low range (just 20 miles) hybrid solar cars

The UK isn't very sunny but most of the world's population do live in sunny locations

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

For those of us lucky enough to have solar panels and be at home in the daytime there are probably 6 months in the year when a BEV can be run from solar PV. (I imagine there is a high correlation between domestic PV and EV ownership.) As BEVs become more mainstream and wind power develops further the grid will be structured to accommodate overnight charging. Workplace charging might well also lead to roll out of more solar PV specifically for that purpose.particularly in sunnier climes. The argument that all the energy they consume is marginal generation powered by !!!!!! will then apply to a much more limited extent.

Also interesting in the future many people (including me) will install smart resistance heaters and smart plus for immersion tanks to take advantage of times when there is excess wind and electricity is cheap (5p or lower) this will save fuel (gas or oil) and save curtailment of wind so BEVs are not required for that task when a £20 smart plug and a £20 resistance heater can solve curtailment and reduce fossil burn

Buy BEVs for fun or flex or tax saving but not for environmental reasons where they offer no significant benefits over a hybrid and are worse in marginal coal grids (China Germany Japan USA)

EVandPV

Someone posted this on the Zappi forum today ...... https://electrifylife.co.uk/
Thought some here might find it interesting reading.
Gives a detailed performance and financial account of their experience so far with EV's, PV, Powerwall and Octopus Go.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Bit embarrassing as I've forgotten where I saw this, but apparently (I'm leaving wiggle room) Tesla has overtaken BYD for most EV's built (ever) .....

Article on this:

Tesla Passes BYD In Global EV Sales, + The History Behind BYD & Tesla’s Efforts At Global EV Domination


and an article on Tesla topping the Netherlands charts v's all cars, not just BEV's:

Tesla Model 3 Dwarfs The Competition In The Netherlands In November, & Is #1 Overall In 2019

almillar

GreatApe:

How are they skewed?

Comparing big expensive cars against little cheap ones, and deliberately using big dirty country's grids for EV. You're picking best and worst cases, to suit your argument. If you want to compare in the UK, stop talking about coal. If you want to talk about coal heavy countries, don't use the Hyundai i10 to compare against, I don't see them driving around the US!!

Model 3 is about 25% cleaner than a hybrid in the UK not including the higher up front manufacturing cost.

Excellent. Now, have you taken servicing into account?

No sir. You are jumping from one thing to another

OK then, you're comparing hybrids against a Model 3. AFAIK, there is no such thing as a Camry Hybrid in the UK, so you can scratch that off your list. If a hybrid works for you and suits your driving (as a gross generalisation - not a lot of long journeys, town driving good), go for it! If you can maximise your electric driving it'll be very efficient. Just don't call it 'self charging' ;-)

EVs add marginal demand
They can be either 100% clean or 100% not clean they aren't an average
For instance if you charged your EV last night it would have been 100% clean as we have too much wind and had to curtail. If you charge your EV right now it's 100% gas

No. You're talking about instantaneous, I'm talking about the whole, average grid mix.

And in a discussion about BEVs the UK is pretty irrelevant compared to the big 4 who are marginal coal/gas mostly coal actually since China is the biggest and it's almost all marginal coal

Since I don't live in China I feel it's highly relevant. My EV doesn't run on coal, and neither will your Hybrid. We can't solve 'the big 4''s problems and we don't run our cars off their grids.

I don't have any particularly reliable information about that but I think it's reasonable for our discussion to assume the mining transport processing shipping etc of coal and gas to a power station isn't much more efficient or clean than the mining refining and transport of petrol to your petrol station

Of course it is, getting it to a handful of power stations around the country is far more efficient than distributing it around hundreds of forecourts. And as before, a growing percentage of the electric in those cables is from a renewable source.

Efficient ICE are... efficient...emitting real world about 100g/km
BEVs in the big markets emmit somewhere around 75-150g/km depending on the local grid

Disagree, as above, you're comparing efficient ICE cars, with EVs running on an inefficient electric grid. In America, one of your big 4, there are plenty of Teslas running on coal, I accept, but there are NOT a lot of efficient 100g/km ICE cars running around. China might be different.

BEVs can emmit zero where the local grid is marginal green eg France about 8 months of the year, UK for a handful of hours a year, Norway all year round, etc. But mostly the big grids are marginal coal (Germany China) or marginal Gas (Japan USA etc) not marginal green

And are grids getting closer or further away from marginal green, if not already there? Compare this to the efficiency of ICEs and how they're improving. Still less than 50% of the energy being converted to kinetic?

Why is so much time and discussion energy spent on BEVs when personal cars produce so little CO2?

Dunno mate, you're the one attacking them!

silverwhistle:

Just an addendum really, but Renault must realise how many of us buy second hand, and transferring a lease is an additional issue. How did you find it?

Bit easier for me I guess since it went to my sister. Forms were filled in and emailed.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Comparing big expensive cars against little cheap ones, and deliberately using big dirty country's grids for EV. You're picking best and worst cases, to suit your argument. If you want to compare in the UK, stop talking about coal. If you want to talk about coal heavy countries, don't use the Hyundai i10 to compare against, I don't see them driving around the US!!

I wasn't comparing a big expensive Tesla to a cheap i10 this is the second time you've made up that lie

I was comparing any full BEV to any efficient ICE and defaulted to model 3 Vs a corrolla hybrid since the model 3 is the best known EV and the corrolla is the highest selling ICE model in the history of earth

So in the EV side use the e golf use the EV Ionic or use the model 3 it doesn't matter
On the ICE side use any efficient petrol or diesel it doesn't matter. I used the corrolla as an example because it's a car I'm thinking of getting. But use the Prius use more or less any hybrid use the efficient end if diesels any efficient ICE

And the sums are the same. An efficient ICE gets about 100g/km
A BEV gets 75-150g/km depending on the local grid being gas or coal

Like it or not China is the world's biggest car market and they are marginal coal and will be for at least the next 15 years life of a BEV so it's worthwhile pointing out that a BEV actually emmissions more CO2 if in a coal marginal grid which is the case for China Germany and much of the USA too. And in a gas marginal grid the emmissions are about 25% less

Excellent. Now, have you taken servicing into account?

Many people claim servicing will be cheaper but I don't believe the claim no one has really had EVs for that long and all the high mileage EVs with low serving have been clocked up on the motorway and the old fuel with ICE is 5-10 motorway miles is equal to 1 mile city.

Also serving isn't just about how frequently things break but about the cost.
Plus the idea that serving a ICE is so expensive is nonsense they are very affordable to service and parts are common and cheap in the new and also extensive second hand parts.

OK then, you're comparing hybrids against a Model 3. AFAIK, there is no such thing as a Camry Hybrid in the UK, so you can scratch that off your list.

If a hybrid works for you and suits your driving (as a gross generalisation - not a lot of long journeys, town driving good), go for it! If you can maximise your electric driving it'll be very efficient. Just don't call it 'self charging' ;-)

You are fixated on a model 3 this comparison is any BEV Vs any efficient ICE
BTW a model 3 and Corolla hybrid vary in size by less than 5% it's the same segment in size.
But you can compare the hybrid corolla to the e golf if you want. If anything I was being generous using the model 3 because it is more aerodynamic the e golf gets worse mileage so if you want to compare an e golf Vs a hybrid the e golf even in marginal gas fired is probably about par in emmissions

No. You're talking about instantaneous, I'm talking about the whole, average grid mix.

BEVs charge up on marginal load when you plug in you can't order more wind power to charge your EV nor can you order 50% wind 50% gas. The power comes from a gas fired stations adding some more methane to the turbine.

BTW I have stated that sometimes in the UK it is 100% wind because during some nights we curtail wind so if you plug in a thousand more EVs at that point we may curtail one less wind turbine so it's filled with full wind.

Only the times we curtail are small I don't know the exact number off my head but it's probably about 1% of the time so you can say a UK EV is 1% wind 99% gas

Since I don't live in China I feel it's highly relevant. My EV doesn't run on coal, and neither will your Hybrid. We can't solve 'the big 4''s problems and we don't run our cars off their grids.

I understand this but I was obviously making s point that BEVs are not lower CO2 emmissions that it's mostly fake accounting

Add the standing losses
Add the energy used in winter for heating
Add the charging losses
Add the grid losses
Add the power station losses
It all ads up whereby a model 3 or equivalent uses 75-150g/km gas-coal
An e golf is worse being about 20% less efficient due to the lower aerodynamic so it will be 90-180g/km Vs a hybrid or efficient non hybrid ICE at 100g/km

Of course it is, getting it to a handful of power stations around the country is far more efficient than distributing it around hundreds of forecourts. And as before, a growing percentage of the electric in those cables is from a renewable source.

You have no idea what you are talking about
For instance are you aware coal fired stations use coal dust
They have to crush the !!!! out of it until it's s powder
Energy intensive and gives off volatile gases into the atmosphere

Plus an oil well especially in the middle East is very very efficient
Compare that to digging up coal where they move so much earth and use so many machines

I am good enough to say I don't know which requires more or less energy but it's probably reasonable to assume it's not vastly different Vs the energy content of either fuel. You are just hoping oil is more energy intensive to mine transport and refine than is coal

Disagree, as above, you're comparing efficient ICE cars, with EVs running on an inefficient electric grid. In America, one of your big 4, there are plenty of Teslas running on coal, I accept, but there are NOT a lot of efficient 100g/km ICE cars running around. China might be different.

What is the point of this statement?
That low efficiency ICE exist?
Sure, everyone knows this
So what's your point?
You're going to convince someone who buys Ford F150 monster trucks to use am e golf or a model 3?

And are grids getting closer or further away from marginal green, if not already there? Compare this to the efficiency of ICEs and how they're improving. Still less than 50% of the energy being converted to kinetic?

Are grids getting close to marginal green? No
#1 grid ( about 25x the size of UK grid) is marginal coal and this will be true for all the 2020s
#2 grid is marginal coal/gas depending on state and time of year
#3 grid is marginal coal and gas depending on time of year
#4 grid is marginal gas
#5 grid is marginal coal
None of these are becoming marginal green in the 2020s

With regards to the UK the answer is yes for the next 3 years we will have more periods of marginal green generation but it might be going from 1% to 3% (just as an example) and then for the 2-3 years after that things don't improve as half the nukes are closed. Then things improve a little for 3 years as more wind is deployed then things don't improve as the remaining half of the nukes are closed in 2028-2030




PS I don't care if anyone gets or doesn't get a BEV
It's just interesting to note how wrong the proponents of BEVs are with regards to their emmissions. BEVs look great Vs lower efficiency ICE cars if one ignores charging losses standing losses and the energy used for heating in colder months.

In the UK BEVs make sense to save tax they don't do much to save a households annual CO2 emmissions perhaps the difference is about 1% for s household with an EV Vs without one.

buglawton

Amen. And the Chancellor is hovering in the wings deciding exactly how he's going to raise the same personal mobility tax from BEVs as he does from the ICE. Once the 'introductory offer' is over.

ABrass

And by then EVs will be the same price as ICE vehicles, so they won't need the stimulus.

EVs will inevitably become cheaper than ICE vehicles. In the next ten years you'll end up paying a premium to buy a petrol car as well as higher running costs. What really confuses me is the predictions that ICE sales won't collapse at that point and somehow people will still want lots of expensive ICE vehicles that you can't drive into towns in 2030.