Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

EVandPV

silverwhistle wrote: »

Yes, but the monthly battery lease cost is more than I currently pay for petrol, so they're a non-starter. A battery owned one, on the other hand...

You also need to take into account the benefits of the lease such as 24/7 breakdown cover, even if your battery runs out of charge plus a warranty on the battery which guarantees is to 75% capacity.
Not to mention the fact your not paying for the battery up front and could well end up paying less for it depending how long you keep the car.

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

It's worth reminding ourselves that BNEF have historically underestimated he rate of price reduction for batteries. In their 2017 report they thought it'd take about 5 years to hit the price we're looking at today, 2.5 years later.

Excellent point, and the best praise for BNEF is probably that they aren't as bad as the EIA.

Point of note however from the article, is that they do stress that the figures are 'industry averages'

Note that BNEF’s pricing data is based on the industry volume-weighted average, and is not intended to be representative of cost leaders such as Tesla/Panasonic, CATL, and others. Our understanding is that Tesla is already somewhere below $100/kWh at the cell level, and likely below $140/kWh at the pack level. Volkswagen has hinted that its cell prices (likely supplied by CATL, based on NCM 811 chemistry) are also below the $100/kWh level.

I hope I'm not cheating by assuming that with a relatively new industry (on this scale) prices should tend towards the industry leaders over time, as their production will continue/expand, whilst those at the tail end will shutdown, or install the 'better' production equipment, something seen in the PV industry as ever better factories started, and the older, smaller ones, would fall by the wayside.

Martyn1981

BEV's make up 36% of Norway's new car sales in October, and PEV's total 59%:

Plug-In Vehicles = 59% of Vehicle Sales in Norway in October

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Article on BNEF's battery cost analysis.

GM announces its own battery gigafactory with LG Chem, 30 GWh of capacity eventually below $100/kWh https://buff.ly/2YkJrm5

almillar

Ionic Hybrid £19,191
Ionic plug in £26,605
Ionic Full BEV £30,849 (before government bungs)

This should be an eye opener for people who think BEVs are close to ICE cars

I've bought 2 EVs, my eyes are open. But again, you need to take off the gov grant. You'll say it artificially lowers the price of EV (it does) and also the huge amount of tax we pay on petrol and diesel artificially raises the price of them (it does). But that's the price that we, in the UK, pay for our cars. There IS a grant. APPLY it.
So:
Ionic Hybrid £19,191 (no grant anymore)
Ionic plug in £26,605 (no grant anymore)
Ionic Full BEV £30,849 - £3,500 grant = £27,349

and battery will degrade somewhat

I think we've already disagreed about how fast/how much a battery degrades.

zeupater

EVandPV wrote: »

You also need to take into account the benefits of the lease such as 24/7 breakdown cover, even if your battery runs out of charge plus a warranty on the battery which guarantees is to 75% capacity.
Not to mention the fact your not paying for the battery up front and could well end up paying less for it depending how long you keep the car.

Hi

I think the issue at hand is that the post made was referencing your own post concerning pre-owned vehicles being available for ~£6k, to which the ongoing cost of battery leasing would be necessary ... effectively the car is depreciated, but the battery lease isn't, it's costed 'as new', no depreciation, no benefit to a buyer in the second-hand sector ...

As silverwhistle mentioned "the monthly battery lease cost is more than I currently pay for petrol, so they're a non-starter", on top of which the cost of electricity must be added which makes the cost/benefit analysis for a pre-owned Zoe with a leased battery as being pretty abysmal .... maybe the residual value in the vehicle simply needs to be addressed along the lines of a forecourt sticker price of £zero if the battery is leased would be considered more reasonable as an new owned battery pack costs around £8k (ZE40/50 leased to owned battery price differential). It's simply a case that ~£14k(8+6) would be far too close to the incentivised cost of a number of new BEVs coming to the market relatively soon ....

I'm pretty sure that both Renault & Zoe owners will need to reconsider the idea of the added complexity afforded by the lease option with Renault eventually backing down and offering battery pack lease buyouts at heavily discounted rates to enable the movement of vehicles from forecourt stock before they've turned to a pile of rust ..

HTH
Z

EVandPV

zeupater wrote: »

on top of which the cost of electricity must be added which makes the cost/benefit analysis for a pre-owned Zoe with a leased battery as being pretty abysmal ....

Unless you have PV and/or a cheap off peak tariff like Octopus Go, but I take your point.

EVandPV

zeupater wrote: »

I'm pretty sure that both Renault & Zoe owners will need to reconsider the idea of the added complexity afforded by the lease option with Renault eventually backing down and offering battery pack lease buyouts at heavily discounted rates to enable the movement of vehicles from forecourt stock before they've turned to a pile of rust ..

I can definitely see that happening.
Apparently, the ZE50 will initially only be sold without the lease in the UK.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I've bought 2 EVs, my eyes are open. But again, you need to take off the gov grant. You'll say it artificially lowers the price of EV (it does) and also the huge amount of tax we pay on petrol and diesel artificially raises the price of them (it does). But that's the price that we, in the UK, pay for our cars. There IS a grant. APPLY it.
So:
Ionic Hybrid £19,191 (no grant anymore)
Ionic plug in £26,605 (no grant anymore)
Ionic Full BEV £30,849 - £3,500 grant = £27,349

I think we've already disagreed about how fast/how much a battery degrades.

I was talking about the technology rather than tax arbitrage
How much does it cost to make a BEV Vs it's twin ICE?

Going by the ionic it's around £11,700 extra
Going by the E Golf it's around £7,500 extra
Going by the E Corsa it's £14,500 extra

The price differentials need to fall down towards £2,500 so a long way to go and really 200 mile range is a requirement below that can work but only for people who pay attention. And that range should be motorway range.

1 hour motorway trip @ 70mph and 1h return allowing a charge cycle from 10-90% and giving yourself 10% headroom means 195 miles minimum. If the infrastructure was in place 100 mile range would be fine if you could charge everywhere for a reasonable price (say 15p a unit)

GreatApe

Using the ionic as a baseline you can estimate a model 3 hybrid clone (let's call it the model 3H) would cost about $27,000

The same as a model 3 in design outside and in but with a hybrid ICE getting 55MPG (65MPG UK)

Sure it uses petrol but likely less much less than the average ICE it replaces and a model 3 uses coal or natural gas indirectly

In a Gas heavy state the EV is (185g / 55% efficiency / 90% grid / 85% charge / 440 grams per kWH into the car @ 3.5 miles per KWh Inc standing losses = 80g/KM Vs 100g/km for the hybrid petrol

And if they are in a coal marginal state the EV version is worse than the model 3H

For emissions reduction wind farms solar farms would do a lot lot more
Use the $13,000 saved into fitting an 8KWp solar system. On a CO2 per dollar investment it beats the EV by more than 50x, 100x if in a coal heavy state