Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

buglawton

I'd like to see where that prediction is cited.
Personally 2040 is the switch year for me.

ABrass

Which prediction? BNEF recon 2023 for price parity for ICE and EV drive trains. In terms of TCO EVs are already breaking even or cheaper. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost

The IEA think 30% EV market share by 2030 is possible. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019

VWG are on the aggressive side for the major manufacturers and they are aiming for 40% by 2030. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volkswagen-group-expands-electric-car-plans

GreatApe

buglawton wrote: »

Amen. And the Chancellor is hovering in the wings deciding exactly how he's going to raise the same personal mobility tax from BEVs as he does from the ICE. Once the 'introductory offer' is over.

This is likely but not for the next 5-10 years imo
My best guess is it will be a monthly mileage tax
Around 5p for motorbikes 10p a mile for cars 15p for trucks and 35p for HGVs

Fuel duties will then be removed so it will be 50p a litre

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

EVs will inevitably become cheaper than ICE vehicles..

Inevitably is a very long time are you talking 1000 years from now or 10 years from now?

Personally I Don't understand why people think useable BEVs will get cheaper than ICE cars
An ICE engine and powertrain is about 100kg of mostly cheap steel
A BEV is 300-600kg of heavy more expensive than steel batteries and power electronics

Anyway who cares it doesn't matter much one way or another

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

Which prediction? BNEF recon 2023 for price parity for ICE and EV drive trains. In terms of TCO EVs are already breaking even or cheaper. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost

The IEA think 30% EV market share by 2030 is possible. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019

VWG are on the aggressive side for the major manufacturers and they are aiming for 40% by 2030. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volkswagen-group-expands-electric-car-plans

It also depends what you mean by cheaper
An e golf is cheaper than most BMWs Audi's Mercs etc so you can say EVs are already cheaper but it's not quite apples to apples

I will remind everyone that the best selling car in the UK is the Ford Fiesta which costs about £14k new I would draw the line there. A 200 motorway mile (at least 150 winter) BEV for £14k built at a large scale (globally 500,000+) and done with no direct or indirect support. Right now we have no idea of the e golf is sold at s loss to meet regulations (probably) so it's hard to tell

Anyway there is no rush because for the next 10 years EVs are not cleaner than efficient ICEs do it doesn't matter

ABrass

Toyota may be going for an EV to replace the Aygo as it's too expensive to make small cars with ICE engines.

Replacing the Aygo with a new gasoline version could be unviable in such the price-sensitive minciar segment. The cost of cleaning up NOx emissions on a gasoline engine car to pass Euro6d Temp standards due in September next year is around 2000 euros a car, Ford has estimated.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/toyotas-next-aygo-could-go-electric

JKenH

ABrass wrote: »

Toyota may be going for an EV to replace the Aygo as it's too expensive to make small cars with ICE engines.



https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/toyotas-next-aygo-could-go-electric

That’s interesting. The argument used to be that it was uneconomic to make small BEVs. Small BEVs always made more sense to me because of their usage pattern fitting better with the limited range available from EV batteries.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

Toyota may be going for an EV to replace the Aygo as it's too expensive to make small cars with ICE engines.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/toyotas-next-aygo-could-go-electric

€2,000 euro for the powertrain of an ICE is still far more affordable than the probably >€10,000 Euro for the powertrain of an equivalent small BEV

There is also another problem for BEVs for small cars which is that they are less aerodynamic than sedans so their motorway miles are worse. This is the only reason stopping me from getting an e golf and is why I'm thinking of a hybrid corrolla both are roughly the same £22-23k but the e golf with perhaps as little as 80 motorway miles in winter isn't practical when I do 70-110 miles once or twice a week.

As a guess the powertrain for the e golf costs 8,000 euro more than the petrol golf because that's the price difference. So if the petrol costs €2000 then the batteries and power electronics cost €10,000 and this is for a car with less than worry free range.

But I have said many times if charging infrastructure was everywhere then BEVs become far cheaper and more practical. I would perfectly accept a e golf with even 1/3rd lower range and batteries if there was charging everywhere for 15p or less

Rather than give huge BEV discounts to new car buyers the government could and should just build 1 million charging points which may cost as little as £500 million and the infrastructure should last decades

EVandPV

Up here, we have the Charge Place Scotland network.
A £20 a year subscription gets you an RFID card and access to hundreds of rapid/destination chargers around Scotland, the vast majority of which are currently free to use.
Our local park & ride charging hub was recently upgraded to 20 charge points.
And Dundee just opened the first of 3 solar hubs with integrated battery storage.
So it can be done.

https://youtu.be/uDpblnu9xUE

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

That’s interesting. The argument used to be that it was uneconomic to make small BEVs. Small BEVs always made more sense to me because of their usage pattern fitting better with the limited range available from EV batteries.

Small BEVs don't make sense because they would be competing against the cheapest ICE cars and be targeting price sensitive customers

Things like the fiat Panda, Hyundai i10, Toyota ayyo which are in the £7-10k range
Those customers won't pay £7-10k more for a BEV clone of the above as it's double the price and they are not rich folk

Things like a 3 series cost £33,000 and those types of customers may consider paying £40k for a Tesla as it's just 30% more and they are rich folk

Also the problem is these hatchback little cars aren't very aerodynamic
The model 3 is more aerodynamic than a golf for instance especially on the motorway it makes a big difference. The e golf would have motorway range of 150 miles if it was as aerodynamic as the model 3 instead it's closer to 90 miles with its boxy shape