The Alternative Green Energy Thread

michaels

Reed_Richards said:

How many suppliers are actually participating in the DFS scheme this winter?  Mine, Eon Next, has dropped out.  Perhaps it has been watered down to beyond the point where it can be useful?

Yes - I read somewhere that 97% of signups this year were via Octopus.  I used an app based one last year, this year they are supposed to be taking part but said the details are still not clear

I would be happy to use my battery to move electricity from overnight to peak if offered £5.75 per kwh - even at 90p it would be profitable but I think Octopus is for their customers only.

JKenH

The debate continues 

NESO forecasting errors: the silent threat to energy security

https://watt-logic.com/2025/01/13/neso-forecasting-errors/

JKenH

Energy firms banned from applying for grid connections as wait times mount

Energy firms will face a temporary ban on applying for grid connections after wait times for the likes of new solar and wind projects have mounted.

Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) on Wednesday said new entrants would no longer be able to apply to join the grid from late January to allow time for reform.

Projects have come up against delays of up to 14 years when attempting to secure energy grid connections due to a backlog of often unfeasible plans being assessed on a first come first serve basis.

NESO said that 1,700 applications had been received last year alone, taking projects already in the queue above levels required for “the energy system in 2030 or even 2050”.

“This short pause in applications will allow us to work with colleagues across the network companies to prepare for the new processes we need to bring forward the electricity projects needed for the delivery of clean power by 2030 and beyond.”

Exemptions would be made, NESO added, including for the likes of "large industrial and commercial units" able to support "wider" energy needs and economic growth.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1064364/energy-firms-banned-from-applying-for-grid-connections-as-wait-times-mount-1064364.html

JKenH

Wow, we currently have a whole 0.09 GW of wind energy and 0.11 GW of solar energy at the moment! That’s less than 0.5% of demand. Thank goodness for gas. Still, once we have quadrupled our renewable generation capacity we will be fine. Oh, wait a minute, that will actually meet just 2% of demand so we will still need all the other sources of dispatchable generation.

Over the next few days we are likely to have far more renewable energy than we can deal with and will be paying people to take it off our hands. In a few years time on windy days we will probably have 3 or 4 or even more times as much generation as we need so how much are we going to have to pay to get rid of that or make constraint payments? How much will that add to bills? This isn’t working. 

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Edit: our operational wind farm capacity is 30.4 MW GW (https://www.renewableuk.com/energypulse/ukwed/) so the current output is just 0.36% 0.30% of capacity. 

% corrected. I had used the solar generation figure of 0.11 GW . Also corrected MW to GW.

michaels

As per the NESO net zero report.  Net zero is based on continuing to use gas when required and balancing this with exports of renewables.

How much of the wind energy would need to be curtailed (but still paid for) before the price per unit is equal to that of the Hinckley C contract?  50%?

Isn't curtailment / free or given away electricity likely to create a bigger market for storage technologies / uses that can work with an intermittent supply?

wakeupalarm

JKenH said:

Wow, we currently have a whole 0.09 GW of wind energy and 0.11 GW of solar energy at the moment! That’s less than 0.5% of demand. Thank goodness for gas. Still, once we have quadrupled our renewable generation capacity we will be fine. Oh, wait a minute, that will actually meet just 2% of demand so we will still need all the other sources of dispatchable generation.

Over the next few days we are likely to have far more renewable energy than we can deal with and will be paying people to take it off our hands. In a few years time on windy days we will probably have 3 or 4 or even more times as much generation as we need so how much are we going to have to pay to get rid of that or make constraint payments? How much will that add to bills? This isn’t working. 

Edit: our operational wind farm capacity is 30.4 MW GW (https://www.renewableuk.com/energypulse/ukwed/) so the current output is just 0.36% 0.30% of capacity. 

% corrected. I had used the solar generation figure of 0.11 GW . Also corrected MW to GW.

In the other extreme, if we have 99.99% of wind and solar energy being generated and 0.01% by Gas will the price still be set by the cost of the 0.01% Gas?

JKenH

michaels said:

As per the NESO net zero report.  Net zero is based on continuing to use gas when required and balancing this with exports of renewables.

How much of the wind energy would need to be curtailed (but still paid for) before the price per unit is equal to that of the Hinckley C contract?  50%?

Isn't curtailment / free or given away electricity likely to create a bigger market for storage technologies / uses that can work with an intermittent supply?

Yes, NESO have acknowledged the case for some gas in the system. That might be 5% of annual generation but that isn’t  the same as 5% of capacity.  If demand grows (as is expected to accommodate more EVs and heat pumps) then faced with a situation like today, when renewables are barely contributing, there will be much more gas generation capacity needed than our current 27GW or so. If demand grows by 10GW as seems likely, then “when the wind isn’t blowing”, we will need almost a further 10GW of new gas capacity just to make up the shortfall. Some older nuclear plants will be retiring (along with some older gas plants) so there may be an even bigger gap to fill. Maybe more interconnects and some storage will come online but will it be at the rate needed? Remember, when we have low wind here, our continental neighbours will also be facing the same problem, so how much spare export capacity will there be? Given the risks to undersea cables from bad actors it seems that the senior bods at NESO are going to have to keep both their fingers and our toes crossed. 

I just wonder how NESO think that, say, 35 GW of gas capacity can be economically sustained for just a few days a year like this. It won’t be cheap. UK’s electricity is already the most expensive in Europe. Does that not matter?

I am perhaps being cynical, but the way to progress in an organisation seems to be to say what your masters want to hear, and hope that by the time the pigeons come home to roost, you will have moved on or be collecting a gold plated pension. If you tell your masters that their political promises are not possible to achieve you will soon be moved out of the way in favour of a Yes Man. 

It might all work out but not a lot of thought is being given to the possibility that it might not. 

JKenH

I hadn’t twigged that it was this bad.

The “dunkelflaute” spell sent winter wind farm output to what is thought to be its lowest since 2015 – when there were far fewer turbines.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/22/wind-power-collapses-less-1pc-uk-energy/

JKenH

Just a reminder that Europe is also suffering from electricity shortages driving up prices.

High electricity prices forced German GMH Group to halt production

The company points to systemic problems in the country’s energy policy. The abandonment of nuclear power was not accompanied by the construction of new gas-fired power plants, and proposals to stabilize electricity prices were never implemented. In addition, network tariffs for enterprises have doubled in recent years, which further increases costs.

For comparison, in 2019, spot electricity prices in Germany did not exceed €130/MWh. Now, the new price levels are forcing not only GMH Group but also other industrial companies to reconsider their operations.

“Billions of euros in lost revenue, two years without economic growth, loss of jobs and competitiveness are the consequences of our energy policy,” Grossmann summarized.

https://gmk.center/en/news/high-electricity-prices-forced-german-gmh-group-to-halt-production/

JKenH

wakeupalarm said:

JKenH said:

Wow, we currently have a whole 0.09 GW of wind energy and 0.11 GW of solar energy at the moment! That’s less than 0.5% of demand. Thank goodness for gas. Still, once we have quadrupled our renewable generation capacity we will be fine. Oh, wait a minute, that will actually meet just 2% of demand so we will still need all the other sources of dispatchable generation.

Over the next few days we are likely to have far more renewable energy than we can deal with and will be paying people to take it off our hands. In a few years time on windy days we will probably have 3 or 4 or even more times as much generation as we need so how much are we going to have to pay to get rid of that or make constraint payments? How much will that add to bills? This isn’t working. 

Edit: our operational wind farm capacity is 30.4 MW GW (https://www.renewableuk.com/energypulse/ukwed/) so the current output is just 0.36% 0.30% of capacity. 

% corrected. I had used the solar generation figure of 0.11 GW . Also corrected MW to GW.

In the other extreme, if we have 99.99% of wind and solar energy being generated and 0.01% by Gas will the price still be set by the cost of the 0.01% Gas?

Probably not, but then again it isn’t now -that’s just a convenient myth used to justify more renewables. 

As an example, here is today’s pricing chart. For most of the night gas is providing the lion’s share of generation but you will see that the day ahead price is actually £0.00. Gas generation cannot be sourced at zero cost so it would be untrue to say that gas is driving the price. It is the market. 

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?start=2025-01-22&&_k=7rk2ly

Gas as a fuel, itself, is not the problem. It is a shortage of alternative generation capacity when the wind doesn’t blow that is the problem. 

Perhaps it would make more economic sense if the government had encouraged a little more gas generation in the past rather than adding more renewables which aren’t needed. Renewables themselves aren’t price sensitive because of the CfD pricing structure. Counterintuitively, we would perhaps have less peaks and troughs in electricity prices if they operated in the free market. I have said many times that renewable generation contracts should only be awarded when there is a commensurate investment in storage. The two have to be linked.

There is BTW a report in the Telegraph today that NESO may be involved in a bidding war with other European grids for electricity from interconnectors for electric to meet tonight’s demand.