No deal Brexit or Corbyn government?

Herzlos

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Whatever justification you come up with makes no difference, so there is no point debating it.

Is there something wrong with the logic I've put forward? Am I missing something?

There’s not going to be a second referendum. End of.

Stranger things have happened. Who know if we'll get a 2nd referendum.


Why are you so scared about the idea? It'd break the deadlock and highlight how much support there is for Brexit.

SpiderLegs

Aegis wrote: »

You can't say that for sure, and you don't get to decide in any case. Johnson also recently said that there wouldn't be an extension past 31 October - pronouncements of the future just aren't reliable at the moment.

You’re right I don’t. Parliament and the eu do.

Neither of those wants it.

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

Is there something wrong with the logic I've put forward? Am I missing something?


Stranger things have happened. Who know if we'll get a 2nd referendum.


Why are you so scared about the idea? It'd break the deadlock and highlight how much support there is for Brexit.

Oh Herzlos you’re so focussed on this urge to stop Brexit but you’re making the classic mistake of starting at your desired outcome and working backwards. When you do that it’s all simple because any of the hurdles in the way only result in the consequences you want to happen.

A month ago you probably thought a second ref was guaranteed because BJ wasn’t getting a deal and was hurtling towards a no-deal exit that would have all parliament up in arms.

Start at today and work forwards instead. Today there’s a deal passed 2nd reading. The first, third and fourth biggest parties all want an election. The second party hasn’t got any kind of consistent plan. The eu won’t give an extension long enough for a second referendum. They won’t open the WA up again. The public wants a GE much more than it wants another referendum.
You tell me how this fantasy of yours is going to happen with all that lot in the way?


In fact I’ll do it for you. It only happens if labour win a GE and get the eu to extend again.

PixelPound

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Oh Herzlos you’re so focussed on this urge to stop Brexit but you’re making the classic mistake of starting at your desired outcome and working backwards. When you do that it’s all simple because any of the hurdles in the way only result in the consequences you want to happen.

A month ago you probably thought a second ref was guaranteed because BJ wasn’t getting a deal and was hurtling towards a no-deal exit that would have all parliament up in arms.

Start at today and work forwards instead. Today there’s a deal passed 2nd reading. The first, third and fourth biggest parties all want an election. The second party hasn’t got any kind of consistent plan. The eu won’t give an extension long enough for a second referendum. They won’t open the WA up again. The public wants a GE much more than it wants another referendum.
You tell me how this fantasy of yours is going to happen with all that lot in the way?


In fact I’ll do it for you. It only happens if labour win a GE and get the eu to extend again.

Tony Blair is now touting possibility of 2nd ref alongside an election. You are right with the timescale as it's reckoned 22 weeks to organise a second referendum, so that would be March

Sailtheworld

If there's one thing we've learnt it's that referendums are a ridiculous way to decide anything - they're a parliamentary cop out. However, brexit let the genie out of the bottle and it would be foolish to rule out another referendum.

The brexiteers can't have it all ways. They were all over the idea of a referendum in 2016 but, funnily enough, aren't quite so keen now.

Aegis

Sailtheworld wrote: »

If there's one thing we've learnt it's that referendums are a ridiculous way to decide anything - they're a parliamentary cop out. However, brexit let the genie out of the bottle and it would be foolish to rule out another referendum.

The brexiteers can't have it all ways. They were all over the idea of a referendum in 2016 but, funnily enough, aren't quite so keen now.

Indeed, and given how much the Leave side keep stating that it's "the will of the people" to push on with Brexit no matter the consequences, it would be nice to check that they are actually correctly interpreting the will of the people, as it would only have taken a net 4% of Brexit supporters in the last election either changing their mind or making it clear that they don't want either no deal or a bad deal to put Remain in the lead. Clearly the Leave side is terrified that if they put it back to the people they will find that the will has changed since 2016 now that new information is available.

Enterprise_1701C

Aegis wrote: »

You can't say that for sure, and you don't get to decide in any case. Johnson also recently said that there wouldn't be an extension past 31 October - pronouncements of the future just aren't reliable at the moment.

The only reason he has been forced to possibly accept an extension is because the toddler Corbyn wanted to try to make him look bad. Corbyn is playing politics, playing games with the future of the country, along with all the idiots forcing amendments just to stop Corbyn getting Brexit in time. In any normal sane times this Brexit would have been put through parliament with little or no problem.

The silly thing is all the idiots trying to make Boris look bad are simply making themselves look bad, they are playing with the future of the country and forcing the uncertainty to continue.

Corbyn is being forced in directions he does not want to travel, without Brexit he would not be able to nationalise the industries he wants to, his intention is to pay so far below the market rate it would be illegal within the eu, hopefully people will not let him anywhere near No 10 anyway so not too much of a concern. If he got in the problems people are saying would happen with a no deal Brexit would seem like luxury in hindsight.

Arklight

After 9 years of a Tory government:

Child poverty +50%
Food bank use +1000%
Homelessness +170%
NHS waiting lists +70%
Police numbers -20%
Crime +30%
Local government funding -50%
Public sector pay -15%
National debt +300%
Excess deaths caused by Tory austerity according to the BMJ +120,000
Tax lost to the Exchequer from cutting the top rate of income tax £8.6 BN
Brexit

Yet, those who want to kick this shower of absolute ****holes out of government are, "idiots."

Herzlos

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Oh Herzlos you’re so focussed on this urge to stop Brexit but you’re making the classic mistake of starting at your desired outcome and working backwards.

I don't actually care about stopping Brexit - I stand to profit from it quite handsomly. I just want to see it done properly if it's what we actually want. A 2nd referendum with a leave result would kill off most of the remain complaining. I could become a rampant Brexiteer if someone gave me a credible plan for it, which allowed any of the promises to be satisfied (beyond the blue passports).

When you do that it’s all simple because any of the hurdles in the way only result in the consequences you want to happen.

I'm just looking at it logically and without the emotion.

A month ago you probably thought a second ref was guaranteed because BJ wasn’t getting a deal and was hurtling towards a no-deal exit that would have all parliament up in arms.

No, I think it's more likely than a month ago.

Start at today and work forwards instead. Today there’s a deal passed 2nd reading. The first, third and fourth biggest parties all want an election. The second party hasn’t got any kind of consistent plan. The eu won’t give an extension long enough for a second referendum. They won’t open the WA up again. The public wants a GE much more than it wants another referendum.
You tell me how this fantasy of yours is going to happen with all that lot in the way?

But the 2nd biggests party doesn't want an election until no-deal is off, and they seem to still have enough sway.
Then the 2nd, 3rd and 4th parties want another referendum, though naturally this would happen after an election.


The EU won't open the WA again if nothing is going to change, but they'll be quite happy to re-negotiate with another government or to extend to allow a referendum. There was even talk of the EU only allowing an extension if it involved a referendum or GE.



Nothing at all is set in stone.

In fact I’ll do it for you. It only happens if labour win a GE and get the eu to extend again.

It's fairly likely a Labour coalition would win a GE, and it's almost certain the EU will extend again.


For the record, I think a GE is more likely than a referendum, but I suspect the outcome of that will be inconclusive.
I'm just saying that the best way to find out what people think about Brexit is to ask them about Brexit, not ask them about the Tories.


I'm also pretty confident that we'll have another referendum before this is all done. Maybe it'll be before we leave, maybe it'll be after. Realistically the longer we wait until a referendum the more likely it is to be a remain/rejoin win anyway, so the Leavers are just doing more harm to their goals.


If they were so certain that Leave is what the people wanted, why not confirm that and get it done?

Moe_The_Bartender

Arklight wrote: »

After 9 years of a Tory government:

Child poverty +50%
Food bank use +1000%
Homelessness +170%
NHS waiting lists +70%
Police numbers -20%
Crime +30%
Local government funding -50%
Public sector pay -15%
National debt +300%
Excess deaths caused by Tory austerity according to the BMJ +120,000
Tax lost to the Exchequer from cutting the top rate of income tax £8.6 BN
Brexit

Yet, those who want to kick this shower of absolute ****holes out of government are, "idiots."

I could refute every single one of these so called facts of yours but I really can’t be bothered.

Just a couple. Despite increases in the personal allowance taking a lot of low paid workers out of paying tax and reductions for higher rate taxpayers has resulted in the take increasing by more than a third. Not that that will bother you as you just want to screw the rich who already pay most of the tax.

The National Debt has increased by about 80% mostly thanks to the mess left by the previous government that you want to elect again. I think we all know who the idiots are.