No deal Brexit or Corbyn government?

Takedap

A GE can never be considered as a "proxy referendum" due to the way the votes are counted.


A 20,000 majority for a Leave candidate in one constituency would be cancelled out by a 200 majority for a Remain candidate in another.


And vice versa of course.

Herzlos

But you can't with any confidence say that the leave candidate got the 20,000 majority because if their brexit stance, because there are so many other factors. If you want to know what the people think about brexit you need to ask them that in a controlled way.

For the dual question, you may end up with a bizarre result but the 2 should be quite well aligned. For instance if the brexit party got a government majority, it's quite likely they'll be asked to do a brexit. But taking the outliers out and you'll likely get a split party with a majority (or a coalition) and a clear direction on what to do.

If Labour wins, for instance, can we infer anything about Brexit?

Herzlos

If you refuse to ask the question directly and want to try to claim a GE answers the question then theres something wrong.

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

If you refuse to ask the question directly and want to try to claim a GE answers the question then theres something wrong.

Firstly, that’s just your opinion
Secondly, it’s an opinion that the majority don’t agree with.

Fran_Klee

Herzlos wrote: »

If you refuse to ask the question directly and want to try to claim a GE answers the question then theres something wrong.

That's not what people think.

With the Brexit deadlock continuing in parliament, opinion among the public is divided on what should happen next. The most popular option, although only by a very narrow margin, is to hold a general election to sort out the impasse. This is backed by 31% of people as the best way forward; 42% of Conservative voters back a general election, compared with 31% of Labour voters who support this as the next step.
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The next most popular option is to allow the House of Commons the necessary time to pass the Brexit legislation; this is backed by 27% of all voters, including 41% of Tory supporters and 24% for Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour


It's an interesting read which also contains this:

As Johnson prepares to push for a 12 December general election in a Commons vote tomorrow, the Conservatives are up three points compared with a week ago, on 40%. Labour is unchanged on 24%, while the Liberal Democrats are down one point on 15%. The Brexit party is down two on 10%, the SNP up one on 5% and the Greens down one on 3%.

Herzlos

I suspect that's because Leavers would rather have a GE than a referendum because they expect a leave coalition to get in but expect a referendum result to be remain.
Remainers want the opposite.

Herzlos

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Firstly, that’s just your opinion
Secondly, it’s an opinion that the majority don’t agree with.

It's just basic logic surely? If you want to know X then you ask X, rather than Y and try to infer it.
Take the MEP election; treated as a proxy referendum. Brexit party got a few seats so leave claims it's a clear mandate for leave. But remain parties got more candidates overall so remain claim it as a victory for remain.

What's so wrong about just asking the question directly? What are you scared of?

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

It's just basic logic surely? If you want to know X then you ask X, rather than Y and try to infer it.
Take the MEP election; treated as a proxy referendum. Brexit party got a few seats so leave claims it's a clear mandate for leave. But remain parties got more candidates overall so remain claim it as a victory for remain.

What's so wrong about just asking the question directly? What are you scared of?

Whatever justification you come up with makes no difference, so there is no point debating it.

There’s not going to be a second referendum. End of.

Aegis

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Whatever justification you come up with makes no difference, so there is no point debating it.

There’s not going to be a second referendum. End of.

You can't say that for sure, and you don't get to decide in any case. Johnson also recently said that there wouldn't be an extension past 31 October - pronouncements of the future just aren't reliable at the moment.

fewgroats

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Whatever justification you come up with makes no difference, so there is no point debating it.

There’s not going to be a second referendum. End of.

Democracy is about debating things, it's not just about referendum.

Will there be an inquiry even if there isn't another referendum?