No deal Brexit or Corbyn government?

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Correct.

Which means that some areas of trade are still conducted under WTO rules.

The brass neck of it.

Filo25

For as long as the US and China are at loggerheads, the UK certainly won't be setting up a trade deal with China either

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

For as long as the US and China are at loggerheads

Far more to the issue than just trade. Not stopping the Chinese pushing ahead with there Belt and Road Initiative either, which has a targetted completion date of 2049........

Poor_Leno

People forget that No deal brexit can effectively split into BP / Tory. So, I guess that makes this an even-ish poll. I mean, no point mentioning the SNP or Liberals cos any big gains they make means a Corbyn Government regardless.

So...I make it

32.84% Corbyn Government
33.58% No deal BP government
33.58% No deal Tory government

Just call me Alastair Campbell. Actually, no don't!.

Fran_Klee

Filo25 wrote: »

For as long as the US and China are at loggerheads, the UK certainly won't be setting up a trade deal with China either

What's with the fascination with trade deals just because of Brexit?
It's not a be-all and end-all you know.

China is the global number 2 in terms of international trade of goods and services, not far behind the USA.
As a country we have been trading with China for centuries.
As a country that was part of the EEC and is now the EU we have been trading with China for over 45 years.
None of this has been with a trade deal.
All this trade currently is on WTO terms.

So what difference will it make if we don't?

phillw

Fran_Klee wrote: »

All this trade currently is on WTO terms.

So what difference will it make if we don't?

I thought it was the only benefit of leaving the EU, once we throw away our close trading relationship with our next door neighbor that we'll be able to do trade deals with other supposedly more relevant countries.

If what you're saying is you think it's ok we go to WTO rules with everyone and we'll be fine without any trade deals ever, then I don't think you understand WTO rules.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

I thought it was the only benefit of leaving the EU, once we throw away our close trading relationship with our next door neighbor that we'll be able to do trade deals with other supposedly more relevant countries.

Europe isn't going to stop wanting to trade with the UK. Trade has to balance out. For every net exporter, i.e. Germany. There has to be a corresponding importer. The UK has to retain it's importance in Financial Services. Inherent danger is that Europe gets bypassed entirely. With primary trading centres being just the US and Asia.

Zuzel

phillw wrote: »

I thought it was the only benefit of leaving the EU, once we throw away our close trading relationship with our next door neighbor that we'll be able to do trade deals with other supposedly more relevant countries.

If what you're saying is you think it's ok we go to WTO rules with everyone and we'll be fine without any trade deals ever, then I don't think you understand WTO rules.

Important part highlighted for you: "we will be able to", not "we will" or "we will have to".

Yes, free of the EU's domineering policies the UK could form a trade deal with any more-relevant country it chooses (that is the UK chooses, not you personally).
Under EU law that is a luxury not allowed as a member country.


Also as the poster above very correctly says, the EU are already putting their own trading centres in danger because of their over-protectionist stance.
That's why the Swiss have seen a surge in trading while the EU's has plummeted since the EU tried bullying Switzerland over trading in EU shares.

It looks like you have a severely limited knowledge of how global trade really works, not just WTO rules.

phillw

Zuzel wrote: »

Important part highlighted for you: "we will be able to", not "we will" or "we will have to".

But we will need to, if we are to make up the lost money with the EU. You know that.

Zuzel wrote: »

Under EU law that is a luxury not allowed as a member country.

Right, it is a luxury. One that will cost us dearly.

Zuzel wrote: »

Also as the poster above very correctly says, the EU are already putting their own trading centres in danger because of their over-protectionist stance.

No, as you both have missed is that the greater danger to the EU is giving into our childish tantrum.

Zuzel wrote: »

It looks like you have a severely limited knowledge of how global trade really works, not just WTO rules.

Still more than you and your cult. The WTO is not your savior.

according to https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6

Only Mauritiania trades purely on WTO terms.

For those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.
It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.

If you have any specific questions about WHY trading purely on WTO terms is really stupid, then feel free to ask.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Europe isn't going to stop wanting to trade with the UK. Trade has to balance out. For every net exporter, i.e. Germany. There has to be a corresponding importer. The UK has to retain it's importance in Financial Services. Inherent danger is that Europe gets bypassed entirely. With primary trading centres being just the US and Asia.

That won't help us when we can't afford to import and our exports become too expensive, it will balance out but to our disadvantage. The EU has just done some really good trade deals, so they are in a much stronger position than us. I know it's not what you want to believe, but that isn't going to help you in the long run.

The UK doesn't have to retain it's importance. There are plenty of other cities that are vying for the same business, we just made ourselves much less competitive & there is nothing boris can do to change that (even TM knew this).

Zuzel

phillw wrote: »

But we will need to, if we are to make up the lost money with the EU. You know that.
Rubbish. Do I have to type it all in capitals? TRADE is what is needed, not trade deals.

Right, it is a luxury. One that will cost us dearly.
You now accept that being able to trade freely with other countries is an EU-imposed luxury which they do not allow of member countries; you're learning. Though how you can give cost analysis before the event is fanciful at best. Hint: That's why the EU are scared.



No, as you both have missed is that the greater danger to the EU is giving into our childish tantrum.
The proof though is that the EU is already suffering. Far more than the UK, I might add. Even the EU accept this but a forum internet warrior will not; who is surprised by that, I wonder?



Still more than you and your cult. The WTO is not your savior.
"Cult"? :rotfl: More remainer insults because they know they don't have a logical argument. Any way no, leaving the EU will be the UK's saviour if anything is to be so described.

according to https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6

Only Mauritiania trades purely on WTO terms.
But the UK won't be trading on purely WTO terms either, or are you seriously just going to ignore all the deals that have been approved. So much for your supposedly superior knowledge. The most recent deal being this: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-africa-trade/britain-agrees-post-brexit-trade-deal-with-southern-africa-idUKKCN1VW1N5

For those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.
It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.

Pure waffle and totally irrelevant; why you posted that is anybody's guess, unless you're comparing their slavery to the UK being part of the EU? :huh:

If you have any specific questions about WHY trading purely on WTO terms is really stupid, then feel free to ask.
Just whatever you do, don't ask this poster because as I have clearly shown they have no idea at all and would rather be dishonest than than accept what they do not like.



That won't help us when we can't afford to import and our exports become too expensive, it will balance out but to our disadvantage. The EU has just done some really good trade deals, so they are in a much stronger position than us. I know it's not what you want to believe, but that isn't going to help you in the long run.
If that was really true the EU would not be so scared of the UK being a huge success post-Brexit, and they are.
The UK doesn't have to retain it's importance. There are plenty of other cities that are vying for the same business, we just made ourselves much less competitive & there is nothing boris can do to change that (even TM knew this).

Many sensible people voted to leave the EU because they are aware that UK influence is diminishing; it has diminished considerably already because of the EU and as the world reaches ever more of a parity in living standards and incomes it is quite obvious that the global balance of influence will shift.
Fullfact say that the EU has already seen it's share of global trade decrease considerably over the past 20 years, so being a member of that club isn't going to help.
What will help is the ability to quickly target thriving areas for trade, something which the EU because of their own constrictions cannot do and something which EU member countries are not allowed to do.

It's time to stop the negativity and accept that the UK stands a pretty decent chance of doing very well after Brexit.