Will Brexit happen?

Filo25

The bit I find odd is that it almost seems most people have forgotten why they voted Leave in the first place, this forum has always had a fair sized vote Leave majority, and if I look back to 2016, I would say the number one concern of that group was immigration, and talk of the easiest deal ever as we had the EU over a barrel

Say what you will about the WA negotiated by May (it was certainly a harder Brexit than I found accepatable), but it addressed the immigration issue.

And yet it seems that is no longer acceptable to most Leave voters, I can only say that the right wing press and right wing of the Tory party, has done a remarkable job of convincing everyone that what they really voted for was the freedom to do FTA deals (which are often proving to be less comprehensive than the ones the EU had already negotiated), and the freedom to deregulate further.

It really is a remarkable achievement, and in the broader sense probably reflects the fact that many people view themselves as Leaver or Remainer and opinions have become more polarised as time has gone on, you can equally find Remainers now who are all for just for sticking two fingers up at the entire process and revoking Article 50.

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

The EU has been negotiating in good faith and has given us lots of leeway, extensions, handy charts, letting us borrow pens, and so on.
The problem is that the EU won't violate the core foundations of the EU for us; they've given us a series of options but none that is cake and eat it, and we can't decide what we actually want to do. That's being spun as EU intransigence in order to shift blame away from the UK negotiators.

It's remarkably hard negotiating with someone who doesn't know what they want, who'll agree something and then argue against it. The backstop was our idea.




Leavers have been very vocal about the 3 years of uncertainty and inaction, and the fact there's still no semplance of a plan.


Can you explain why? I've never heard of anyone making such a shift though I concede it's possible.


Bizarrely, I have to admit to having made the same shift, but purely because I think actually leaving on WTO terms is the easiest way to kill off the Brexit movement. Anything else will just cause a vocal minority to scream about betrayal for another 30 years.
The only way to get everyone on board with the EU is for the doubters to go "actually, this is pretty crap after all, maybe the EU wasn't so bad".

I agree that I think leaving with no deal would probably be eye opening for a lot of people, but you still won't be short of those who blame the enemy without "The EU" and the enemy within "Collaborating Remoaners", I'm not saying it makes much sense but the whole process hasn't made much sense, and I think you will find no shortage of people who will buy that narrative rather than face up to the fact that they were wrong, that isn't going to lead UK politics in a pleasant direction.

In any case even if we did subsequently change our mind, I don't see some of the EU nations being in any hurry to readmit the UK awkward squad on terms anything like as generous as we have now.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Money rules. Backed by her mate at Pimlico plumbers who is a self made millionaire thanks to the poorly employed immigrants who worked for him.

Poorly employed? Pimlico Plumbers??

Majority of their plumbers and heating engineers are on +100k annually.

Malthusian

phillw wrote: »

You haven't seen anything yet (and I'm not sure I believe you [saying you switched from Remain to no deal]).

If we take the turnout at the Brexit referendum and the expansion of the Leave / Remain margin from the 2016 referendum (52 / 48) to the 2019 European elections (58 / 42), those numbers indicate that approximately a net 2 million people have changed their minds from Remain to Leave.

It would hardly be a surprise if a few of those 2 million are on this forum. Myself included. But if it makes you feel better to believe we're lying, it's a free country.

There is more joy in heaven, etc etc...

Takedap

Malthusian wrote: »

If we take the turnout at the Brexit referendum and the expansion of the Leave / Remain margin from the 2016 referendum (52 / 48) to the 2019 European elections (58 / 42), those numbers indicate that approximately a net 2 million people have changed their minds from Remain to Leave.

It would hardly be a surprise if a few of those 2 million are on this forum. Myself included. But if it makes you feel better to believe we're lying, it's a free country.

There is more joy in heaven, etc etc...

Are you sure? If only there were some way of checking. Like maybe asking them perhaps?

Or are you scared of that?

phillw

Malthusian wrote: »

If we take the turnout at the Brexit referendum and the expansion of the Leave / Remain margin from the 2016 referendum (52 / 48) to the 2019 European elections (58 / 42), those numbers indicate that approximately a net 2 million people have changed their minds from Remain to Leave.

Can you explain exactly how you are misrepresenting the european election vote to come to that conclusion? There is a common way that people lie about them, I'm wondering if you're using that method or another.

Thanks

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

Did she or did she not restore Parliamentary sovereignty?
Do you or do you not approve of Parliamentary sovereignty?

Parliament has been sovereign the entire time we've been a member of the EU.

People just don't understand what it means. It's a brilliant sound bite when nobody cares to look up what it actually means.

Herzlos wrote: »

Bizarrely, I have to admit to having made the same shift, but purely because I think actually leaving on WTO terms is the easiest way to kill off the Brexit movement. Anything else will just cause a vocal minority to scream about betrayal for another 30 years.
The only way to get everyone on board with the EU is for the doubters to go "actually, this is pretty crap after all, maybe the EU wasn't so bad".

I think you underestimate their ability to delude themselves. They'll still be bending over saying "thank you sir, can I have another" for a long time to come.

Conina wrote: »

They did, they knew the people wanted to leave and that's why they implemented Article 50

They knew some people wanted to leave, less than half the total population of the country.

Conina wrote: »

but the mistake came in thinking that the EU would negotiate in good faith when their leaders had already told us that they would do all they could to make us suffer for daring to ask to leave.

What did they say exactly? The wording I heard was along the lines of "you can't have all of the benefits of the single market if you are outside the single market".

"Daring" sounds like it was brave, it was done out of fear. Project Fear (the real one by Leave.EU) did an amazing job of putting fear into people.

The brave voted to remain, we are the resistance. The rebels.

oldernonethewiser

Conina wrote: »

They did, they knew the people wanted to leave and that's why they implemented Article 50 but the mistake came in thinking that the EU would negotiate in good faith when their leaders had already told us that they would do all they could to make us suffer for daring to ask to leave.

Some people who chose to vote wanted to leave. They were more of them than those who voted to remain.


Neither of these groups can be said to represent "the people"

qwert_yuiop

lvader wrote: »

Besides the alternative is a neo marxist government which would be far worse for the economy.

Surely if a neo Marxist government is elected that’s democracy, a bit like the referendum? The difference is we can get Corbin out of number 10 when we want. Joining the eu again might be more difficult.

It’s true - 52% of those who voted is not enough to enact momentous change. Something to think about for Scottish and Irish nationalists.

Spy_Key

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

It’s true - 52% of those who voted is not enough to enact momentous change. Something to think about for Scottish and Irish nationalists.

So when you're asked and you give an answer, without any preset conditions stated, what percentage IS enough to enact momentous change?
Exact figure, please.