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Tesla Price Reductions
Comments
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I'll be willing to bet pretty much everything I own I will not have any worried about battery degradation/wear till 2025 at the earliest:).
Well then you're the exception to the rule.
I'm using an HP Envy 13 laptop as we speak. Would be considered to be a premium ultrabook i guess - probably £1,000+ so not an insignificant purchase.. Took a new battery at 2 years old, and its probably half way through the life of its second one.
My Samsung S8+ phone. Cost £800 ish, so again, not insignificant, at 18 months old it has noticable battery life degradation and i expect to have to replace the battery at some point.
The battery in my son's BMW 120d went at 7 years old and 70K miles. Being a stop / start battery it needed to be coded to the car, so cost nearly £300 to get done. No-one but BMW would do it.
Do you think those experiences are untypical of the general publics experiences of batteries, and thus cant you see the skepticism that people might have?
And likewise 2025 is only 6 years away. People could be being asked to pay £30,000-£50,000 for a 7-8 year old Tesla knowing at some point it might need a ££,£££ battery pack.
Am not a betting man normally but on this issue I'm more than happy to take anyone up on this.
Yup, thats great, i'm really glad you have that level of confidence.
However as i've said for the general public, there is a fear that battery degradation will become a problem and there is very little published pricing about replacement costs.0 -
But I don't think PCP/PCH does anything to protect from this risk, that was the point I was trying to make.
All you do is substitute a potential cost that might never be realised, with a guaranteed cost in the form of interest.
Agreed RE: protecting you. It effectively mitigates or removes the risk because it no longer becomes your concern.
And to reiterate most new car PCP deals these days are on very low or zero rate deals which means it isnt such an issue, and PCH deals it isnt a factor at all as its purely a rental decision.
I think a used Tesla does even more to demonstrate how buying used is the most cost effective means at protecting yourself from depreciation. Particularly as used Tesla's come with a 4yr warranty.
Genuinely question - does this come with a 4 year warranty? I see no mention of it in the advert.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201902054624598?onesearchad=Used&onesearchad=Nearly%20New&onesearchad=New&sort=price-asc&postcode=bt622hb&advertising-location=at_cars&make=TESLA&radius=1500&page=1
And at 5 years old now, and assuming someone buys it with a view to keeping for say, 4-5 years, whos guaranteeing future battery life or would i possibly be facing a £10-20K bill for batteries in that timeframe?
Those are genuine questions BTW...
I don't live in London no, I work there but commute by train. As it happens I am perhaps the worse use case for trying to demonstrate the cost savings of a EV, as I do very little miles, don't have a home charger! However, even comparing it to a used petrol Mini that we've owned for over 5yrs that has cost very little in repairs or maintenance, the EV is still a considerable cost saving, comes better equipped and is nicer to drive!
Well, it works for you and thats the main thing. It may not work for others. I'm not adverse to an electric or hybrid car, but i'd have to want to own the car, and theres none at any reasonable price point that are currently doing that for me.0 -
Well then you're the exception to the rule.
I'm using an HP Envy 13 laptop as we speak. Would be considered to be a premium ultrabook i guess - probably £1,000+ so not an insignificant purchase.. Took a new battery at 2 years old, and its probably half way through the life of its second one.
My Samsung S8+ phone. Cost £800 ish, so again, not insignificant, at 18 months old it has noticable battery life degradation and i expect to have to replace the battery at some point.
The battery in my son's BMW 120d went at 7 years old and 70K miles. Being a stop / start battery it needed to be coded to the car, so cost nearly £300 to get done. No-one but BMW would do it.
Do you think those experiences are untypical of the general publics experiences of batteries, and thus cant you see the skepticism that people might have?
And likewise 2025 is only 6 years away. People could be being asked to pay £30,000-£50,000 for a 7-8 year old Tesla knowing at some point it might need a ££,£££ battery pack.
Yup, thats great, i'm really glad you have that level of confidence.
However as i've said for the general public, there is a fear that battery degradation will become a problem and there is very little published pricing about replacement costs.
I agree, the public perception is a big hurdle for the adoption of EVs and this is where education needs to come in to help people understand that their experience of Lithium ion batteries in their phones and mobiles will not be any way comparable to their experience of Lithium ion batteries in an EV.
As I understand it, battery degradation is vastly reduced in an EV for two main reasons:
1/ The EV battery is much larger, and therefore is able to keep some of the battery capacity 'unused'. This is why you will often see the kWh of an EV being quoted as the 'usable capacity'. Doing so ensures the battery is never fully charged to 100%, and this not only helps from a battery preservation POV, but also with charging times. It also means that when battery degradation does occur, the manufacturer is able to unlock some of the used capacity, where the end user has not noticeable effect on range.
2/ EV's are equipped with BMS and battery cooling, which allows the temperature of the battery to be maintained in it's optimum temperature. High temperatures accelerate battery degradation, and on mobile phones and laptops, high work loads on the CPU/GPU can raise internal temperatures well above 90°C. An EV on the other hand can keep temperatures below 30°C and lower, dramatically slowing the degradation of the battery.0 -
Agreed RE: protecting you. It effectively mitigates or removes the risk because it no longer becomes your concern.
Hmmm! Well it's no longer a risk because you have decided to pay for it..! I guess I agree that it's not a 'risk' anymore, but I'm not sure it's an effective means of mitigating it....
I would much rather buy and see whether in this particular's car's ownership I see a sudden devaluation of £18k odd, than just accept paying an extra £22k in interest and wait till the end of the ownership to see if I was right or not!And to reiterate most new car PCP deals these days are on very low or zero rate deals which means it isnt such an issue, and PCH deals it isnt a factor at all as its purely a rental decision.
Completely agree, every car and deal at the time will be unique. I have yet to see a use case where buying used has not resulted in 99% of the same experience as new, for around 33-50% of the cost. This will more than cover the potential risk of unexpected maintenance or repair bills, which again like above, probably won't happen, and certainly won't happen consistently over the course XX cars over the 4/5 decades that people typically need to run a car.Genuinely question - does this come with a 4 year warranty? I see no mention of it in the advert.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201902054624598?onesearchad=Used&onesearchad=Nearly%20New&onesearchad=New&sort=price-asc&postcode=bt622hb&advertising-location=at_cars&make=TESLA&radius=1500&page=1
And at 5 years old now, and assuming someone buys it with a view to keeping for say, 4-5 years, whos guaranteeing future battery life or would i possibly be facing a £10-20K bill for batteries in that timeframe?
Those are genuine questions BTW...
Nah that one doesn't, it will be certified preowned Tesla stock, much like the used warranty that other manufacturers offer for their used stock.
Nobody guarantees the life of the battery on that car after 4/5yrs. Just as no one will an engine or a transmission or a drive train of an ICE on a car that is 8/10years old.
I wouldn't say that a replacement battery is in anyway inevitable or even likely though, just as when an Audi/BMW/Merc gets past 3yrs old you don't start worrying about engine replacement cost (or even 10years!). In terms of cost, it's really a bit of an unknown atm, but I wouldn't envision prices quite as high as £20k. There are even third party companies that are already doing repairs on individual cell packs in Nissan Leafs, as the first gen Leaf didn't have active battery cooling and so are prone to high degradation.Well, it works for you and thats the main thing. It may not work for others. I'm not adverse to an electric or hybrid car, but i'd have to want to own the car, and theres none at any reasonable price point that are currently doing that for me.
Absolutely. Sorry was just illustrating my surprise that it is intact cost effective, as I never suspected it to be! Completely agree, variety and personal use case will dictate the suitability of EV's. To be honest I was tempted to sell it to a dealer and make a little tidy profit from it as I don't find it excites me much (my last car was a Audi S5...), but it's such a cost efficient way to travel about on the occasion I do need it, that I've decided to keep it a little bit longer...
If I was driving more regularly, like commuting to work, I don't think I would keep it, even though it does what I need...0 -
Well then you're the exception to the rule.
I'm using an HP Envy 13 laptop as we speak. Would be considered to be a premium ultrabook i guess - probably £1,000+ so not an insignificant purchase.. Took a new battery at 2 years old, and its probably half way through the life of its second one.
My Samsung S8+ phone. Cost £800 ish, so again, not insignificant, at 18 months old it has noticable battery life degradation and i expect to have to replace the battery at some point.
The battery in my son's BMW 120d went at 7 years old and 70K miles. Being a stop / start battery it needed to be coded to the car, so cost nearly £300 to get done. No-one but BMW would do it.
Do you think those experiences are untypical of the general publics experiences of batteries, and thus cant you see the skepticism that people might have?
And likewise 2025 is only 6 years away. People could be being asked to pay £30,000-£50,000 for a 7-8 year old Tesla knowing at some point it might need a ££,£££ battery pack.
Your confusing the way batteries are used/regulated in consumer electronics versus something like a Tesla.
For a start all EV has extremely complex Battery Management Systems (BMS). These system are designed to ensure the battery is never allowed to be fully discharged or fully recharged as these two extremes are what cause most degradation.
When batteries are at 30-80% rather than 0-100% their life cycle is massively increased. Look at the number of Toyota hybrids on the roads, they have tiny battery packs which are cycles x100 more than any EV pack, but yet they last extremely well. This is because the Toyota BMS system keeps the packs operating at a very tight state of charge.
Your phone/laptop battery is cycled almost ever day and often 100-0%, as the batteries are small. So by 2 years old the battery will be approaching 700 cycles or higher. As you can see a standard Panasonic Lithium ion cell drops 30% capacity at 500 cycles hence why lots of consumer electronic batteries need replacing at 2-3years old. On an EV with a decent range if you assume 200 miles per cycle alone your be at 100K miles before 30% degradation if you assume the cell degrades like a phone/laptop battery.
But the chemistry used in EV cells also last ALOT longer than what's used in consumer electronics. Because EVs have proper BMS and heating/cooling they chemistry used can be much more aggressive at resisting degradation. The problem with the more degradation resistant chemistry is thermal run-away if you don't have proper cooling - Samsung exploding phones is a great example of this. With more aggressive chemistry Tesla cells have been shown to retain 80% degradation at 3000 cycles. Assuming 200 miles range per cycle, that's 600K miles before losing 20% range!!
Some people also worry about 'time based' degradation, but again this hasn't proven to be the case.
https://youtu.be/4bXYisWDGo0
Essentially when you add up limiting usable battery capacity via the BMS, reduced cycle count compared to consumer electronics, and degradation resistant chemistry most EVs today have battery packs that will out last the car!!
The proof though is in the real world, the database below contains real life data on how well Tesla packs are lasting in the real world. Essentially after an initial drop of about 5% in the first 50K, these battery packs virtually stop degradation, virtually no cars have lost more than 10% even 150K mies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=154312675
I can understand why people are concerned about EV battery life, I was too which is why I got a Leaf on PCP in 2015 first before committing to a much more expensive EV. But if you actually look at the data, for most people battery pack degradation will never be an issue, the rest of the car is likely to fall apart long before the battery does.
The average UK driver only covers 8K per annum, it'll take 18 years to hit 150K and even than the battery will still have 90%+ charge capacity.
Our EV is going to kept for at least 8 years, currently the car has done 20K in 18 months. My rough estimate of battery degradation is currently 1-2% at the most. I recon our car will hit just under 150K by the time we sell it.
I do have lots of concerns about owing such a complex car till 150K, but the battery condition is not one of them
. 0 -
However as i've said for the general public, there is a fear that battery degradation will become a problem and there is very little published pricing about replacement costs.
The reason there is so little real life examples of replacement battery costs is because so few EVs actually need replacement packs.
Don't forget Tesla have been making EVs since 2009, the Leaf has been around since 2011. The lack of new stories about owners paying ££££ for replacement packs on these early EVs should tell you something about how reliable battery packs in all EVs. 0 -
Hmmm! Well it's no longer a risk because you have decided to pay for it..! I guess I agree that it's not a 'risk' anymore, but I'm not sure it's an effective means of mitigating it....
It is if you've got a 0% or very low rate APR on a PCP or are renting using a PCH.
I would much rather buy and see whether in this particular's car's ownership I see a sudden devaluation of £18k odd, than just accept paying an extra £22k in interest and wait till the end of the ownership to see if I was right or not!
Agreed - if you're seeing dealers with £22K in interest, then that clearly does not fall into the realms of what i'm suggesting - 0% or very low rate APRs. For example, BMW were doing 0% APR for a period on the i8. That to me would be a great opportunity to mitigate risk, at zero cost.
Completely agree, every car and deal at the time will be unique. I have yet to see a use case where buying used has not resulted in 99% of the same experience as new, for around 33-50% of the cost. This will more than cover the potential risk of unexpected maintenance or repair bills, which again like above, probably won't happen, and certainly won't happen consistently over the course XX cars over the 4/5 decades that people typically need to run a car.
There are many, many reasons for buying new that would move someone significantly away from your 99% figure and if you're looking at 33-50% of the cost moreoften that will bring you in to the realms of an older generation car, so often not comparing like with like.
Nah that one doesn't, it will be certified preowned Tesla stock, much like the used warranty that other manufacturers offer for their used stock.
Nobody guarantees the life of the battery on that car after 4/5yrs. Just as no one will an engine or a transmission or a drive train of an ICE on a car that is 8/10years old.
I wouldn't say that a replacement battery is in anyway inevitable or even likely though, just as when an Audi/BMW/Merc gets past 3yrs old you don't start worrying about engine replacement cost (or even 10years!). In terms of cost, it's really a bit of an unknown atm, but I wouldn't envision prices quite as high as £20k. There are even third party companies that are already doing repairs on individual cell packs in Nissan Leafs, as the first gen Leaf didn't have active battery cooling and so are prone to high degradation.
Yup, and for a lot of people that "unknown" is a problem. If a battery pack overhaul / replacement was a known quantity on say an i8 or Tesla then you can budget for it, then you've the lack of expertise in doing it (not something your local mechanic is likely to undertake) and the unquantifiable (but likely to be low) probability of it happening.
Absolutely. Sorry was just illustrating my surprise that it is intact cost effective, as I never suspected it to be! Completely agree, variety and personal use case will dictate the suitability of EV's. To be honest I was tempted to sell it to a dealer and make a little tidy profit from it as I don't find it excites me much (my last car was a Audi S5...), but it's such a cost efficient way to travel about on the occasion I do need it, that I've decided to keep it a little bit longer...
If I was driving more regularly, like commuting to work, I don't think I would keep it, even though it does what I need...
Yes, it sounds like a bit of fun and its costing you very little so why not? :beer:0 -
Your confusing the way batteries are used/regulated in consumer electronics versus something like a Tesla.
For a start all EV has extremely complex Battery Management Systems (BMS). These system are designed to ensure the battery is never allowed to be fully discharged or fully recharged as these two extremes are what cause most degradation.
When batteries are at 30-80% rather than 0-100% their life cycle is massively increased. Look at the number of Toyota hybrids on the roads, they have tiny battery packs which are cycles x100 more than any EV pack, but yet they last extremely well. This is because the Toyota BMS system keeps the packs operating at a very tight state of charge.
Your phone/laptop battery is cycled almost ever day and often 100-0%, as the batteries are small. So by 2 years old the battery will be approaching 700 cycles or higher. As you can see a standard Panasonic Lithium ion cell drops 30% capacity at 500 cycles hence why lots of consumer electronic batteries need replacing at 2-3years old. On an EV with a decent range if you assume 200 miles per cycle alone your be at 100K miles before 30% degradation if you assume the cell degrades like a phone/laptop battery.
But the chemistry used in EV cells also last ALOT longer than what's used in consumer electronics. Because EVs have proper BMS and heating/cooling they chemistry used can be much more aggressive at resisting degradation. The problem with the more degradation resistant chemistry is thermal run-away if you don't have proper cooling - Samsung exploding phones is a great example of this. With more aggressive chemistry Tesla cells have been shown to retain 80% degradation at 3000 cycles. Assuming 200 miles range per cycle, that's 600K miles before losing 20% range!!
Some people also worry about 'time based' degradation, but again this hasn't proven to be the case.
https://youtu.be/4bXYisWDGo0
Essentially when you add up limiting usable battery capacity via the BMS, reduced cycle count compared to consumer electronics, and degradation resistant chemistry most EVs today have battery packs that will out last the car!!
The proof though is in the real world, the database below contains real life data on how well Tesla packs are lasting in the real world. Essentially after an initial drop of about 5% in the first 50K, these battery packs virtually stop degradation, virtually no cars have lost more than 10% even 150K mies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=154312675
I can understand why people are concerned about EV battery life, I was too which is why I got a Leaf on PCP in 2015 first before committing to a much more expensive EV. But if you actually look at the data, for most people battery pack degradation will never be an issue, the rest of the car is likely to fall apart long before the battery does.
The average UK driver only covers 8K per annum, it'll take 18 years to hit 150K and even than the battery will still have 90%+ charge capacity.
Our EV is going to kept for at least 8 years, currently the car has done 20K in 18 months. My rough estimate of battery degradation is currently 1-2% at the most. I recon our car will hit just under 150K by the time we sell it.
I do have lots of concerns about owing such a complex car till 150K, but the battery condition is not one of them.
Thanks for taking the time to explain all that. Interesting stuff 0 -
It is if you've got a 0% or very low rate APR on a PCP or are renting using a PCH.
Agreed - if you're seeing dealers with £22K in interest, then that clearly does not fall into the realms of what i'm suggesting - 0% or very low rate APRs. For example, BMW were doing 0% APR for a period on the i8. That to me would be a great opportunity to mitigate risk, at zero cost.
Yes very good point. Apologies I was conflating PCP vs cash and PCP vs used arguments! Yes 0% interest, if dead set on new, would be a good way to go!There are many, many reasons for buying new that would move someone significantly away from your 99% figure and if you're looking at 33-50% of the cost moreoften that will bring you in to the realms of an older generation car, so often not comparing like with like.
Hmmmm, yea i guess, but that seems like a pretty weak argument IMHO. Generation cycles tend to be around 5yrs, so it only requires waiting a couple of years, and considering the cost savings it seems like a small price. For example my 66-plate Zoe is the first of the bigger battery ones (41kWh). The new Zoe is likely to be 50/60kWh and will have CCS DC charging, both very useful upgrades. But that won't be released till end of 2019, with orders not making it till 2020. So all I have to do is hang on to this for about 4 years and look for another 2yr old/5,000mi used Zoe like the one I have bought....
Given that I estimate savings of up to £10k for each 'car cycle', waiting just a couple of years seems like a small sacrifice!
Without wanting to come across as humble bragging, affordability is certainly not a concern to me or my partner when it comes to finance, but I just cannot see how people justify the expense related to new cars....particularly on a rolling 3-yr basis! It's just such a large chunk of disposable income!
But then I guess I've never been one for buying the new phone, laptop, TV, console, etc etc...I
Yup, and for a lot of people that "unknown" is a problem. If a battery pack overhaul / replacement was a known quantity on say an i8 or Tesla then you can budget for it, then you've the lack of expertise in doing it (not something your local mechanic is likely to undertake) and the unquantifiable (but likely to be low) probability of it happening.
Yea fair points. I think anyone taking the time to look at it in any great detail will realise it is probably overestimating the risk and cost though.
But then our general ability to accurately quantify risk and determine the appropriate economic cost to circumvent it is probably well below average! After all, it's why companies do so well from products like extended warranties....!
I mean I'm a statistician and I still struggle...! What doesn't help is how little objective research there is out there to allow us to properly determine the risk of things like engine failures, transmission failures and battery replacements in all cars....
Maybe companies will start sharing their data....when the world ends!0 -
Without wanting to come across as humble bragging, affordability is certainly not a concern to me or my partner when it comes to finance, but I just cannot see how people justify the expense related to new cars....particularly on a rolling 3-yr basis! It's just such a large chunk of disposable income!
I'm with you on this - up to / down to a point.
I think theres a relatively low price point whereby i can still see the merit in buying new. I budget for 50% depreciation every 3 years, so around £20K means probably returning £10K after three years. Our MINI Cooper S was £24Kish list, £21K ish after discount so i'm probably OK with losing £10K over 3 years.
Over and above that to me it starts to get silly. A £50K Merc or BMW probably doesnt get you much more these days than a mid range diesel variant, yet you're still going to have to suffer £25,000 depreciation at least in three years. Up from there the numbers go crazy. £80K on a BMW can become £40K or £30K in three years time. :eek:
If i was intent on spending that on a car, it would have to be on something like a 911 or something where i'd know i was getting a good percentage of my money back come resale time.
But then I guess I've never been one for buying the new phone, laptop, TV, console, etc etc...
I like my toys but i tend to hold on to them a while. My HP Envy 13 is coming 3 years old, but it still looks well and i'd need to spend £1500 to get something better than it. Likewise my phone is an S8+ which replaced a Note 4. I dont see any particular advantage in getting say an S10+ as it wont do anything more than the S8+ does for me anyway.
Both the phone and my laptop are put through my company anyway, so theres the 40% or so tax saving and the VAT saving.
Cant get my Xbox One X past my accountant though...
Yea fair points. I think anyone taking the time to look at it in any great detail will realise it is probably overestimating the risk and cost though.
But then our general ability to accurately quantify risk and determine the appropriate economic cost to circumvent it is probably well below average! After all, it's why companies do so well from products like extended warranties....!
I mean I'm a statistician and I still struggle...! What doesn't help is how little objective research there is out there to allow us to properly determine the risk of things like engine failures, transmission failures and battery replacements in all cars....
Maybe companies will start sharing their data....when the world ends!
Indeed. Interesting that the Tesla Approved Used cars with a 4 year warranty on that link were around £45K, yet a non Approved Used car can be bought from a dealer for £35K. Big money in warranties as you say.
It does make you wonder though - would the £35K be better and just take your chances?
Interesting dilemma for someone.0
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