Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Tromking

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I don't think many people question the intention - I certainly don't. Sadly, that's totally, completely and utterly irrelevant. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
What matters is how correct it is that the country will be "better", whatever this means.

Road to hell or salvation? You pays yer money, you make yer choice.
You cannot reason with someone who’s entire argument for remaining is based on the fallacy that the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world cannot survive or indeed flourish outside of the EU.
With or without the U.K., the EU faces an existential crisis as regards how it is viewed by its citizens. For an increasingly large amount of Europeans it is seen as a monolithic out of touch entity that seems incapable or unwilling to represent the hopes and fears of its people. When the new European Parliament come July is made up of one third populists and assorted fascists many of our number will admit we’ve escaped a bullet by leaving I suspect.
Not for the first time, Brits have looked across the channel and decided that the direction of travel on the mainland is not for them.
It could have been so different, if only Brussels, Merkel and Hollande had read the runes and realised what was happening with the European people, but no they couldn’t wait to humiliate those notoriously poor Europeans, the Brits.
You can like most angry Remainers disappear up your own jacksey wobbling on about buses and Boris, but the democratic imperative as expressed in the referendum remains.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Furthermore why did Greece become the largest market in Europe for the Porsche Cayenne. With German Banks more than happy to provide finance for the buyers. Greece was exploited. National politics and big business are far too often interlinked. ( i.e. Brown\Blair and RBS\Goodwin).

I would like you to back up YOUR statement about Porsche Cayenne sales in Greece.
I am not calling you out but making statements like that need challenging. Perhaps you just made it up?
If you are repeating a lie then say so. If it is a lie does that make every “fact” you have repeated a lie?

Herzlos

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I don't think many people question the intention - I certainly don't. Sadly, that's totally, completely and utterly irrelevant. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
What matters is how correct it is that the country will be "better", whatever this means.


The NHS bus thing? Totally false.


The having cake and eating it? The holding all the cards? IMHO, totally false - where have seen any evidence of that in the negotiations?


All the questions about what happens in case of a no-trade deal? Still unanswered. Remainers cannot voice their concerns because, you know, project Fear etc etc, but Brexiters have still to explain what they think would happen and why. No, I take that back, one Brexiter at least, Boris, has said very clearly he doesn't care (F* business, remember?)


There's a very interesting video debate with James Delingpole, recorded a few weeks ago,
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/james-dellingpole-rinsed-after-stuttering-through-bbc-interview-talking-brexit-1-5866045

where he admits clear ignorance. When he's asked what would happen to the ca. 50% of lamb that we export to the EU (no tariffs no, high tariffs under a WTO-no-deal scenario), his reply was something along the lines of "I'm sure we'll find a way out". Ok, he may not be an expert in food commerce, but is there a single Brexiter who is and who can answer this question?

I think that's what frustrates me the most; the total lack of any plan or detail. I appreciate that we could do some great things whilst detached from the EU and could easily capitalize on it. But no-one seems to have even the most basic answers beyond soundbites.

It'd be easy to get behind a plan, but we've been waiting 3 years and seen absolutely nothing. The only plan I'm aware of is Mays attempt to force her Brexit and keep her party together, I don't think there's any idea about what'll happen next.

SouthLondonUser

Tromking wrote: »

Road to hell or salvation? You pays yer money, you make yer choice.
You cannot reason with someone who’s entire argument for remaining is based on the fallacy that the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world cannot survive or indeed flourish outside of the EU.

I am only responsible for what I say, not for what others say, and have no issue calling out what I think is nonsense, even if said by remainers.

I never said the UK cannot survive outside the EU. I have always thought and said it would be much worse off.


Why?


Because it does a lot of business with the EU. What would happen to all the trade now done on a zero-tariff base?


Maybe you can answer the question that Delingpole couldn't: what would happen to all the British sheep farmers? They currently export ca. half their lamb to Europe, with no tariffs. Under WTO rules, that lamb would be subject to a 40% tariff (as explained by the BBC - if you have more details I'm interested).


No, the country as a whole won't become Venezuela.
Over time, those farmers may even find other markets to sell to. But how long will that take? And what in the meanwhile?


As for other markets, how long do trade deals take? Surely you realise that the bargaining power of the UK is much smaller than that of the EU? Can you think of any single country that would want to prioritise the UK over the EU? And no, Trump's nonsense doesn't count - he has said many many things, mostly blatant lies.


And what if countries like India want us to relax immigration rules in exchange for trade deals? Many Leave voters didn't like the thought of mostly white, mostly Christian immigrants - are they going to be happy with non-white, non-Christian ones?


Or if the US want us to relax our food safety standards? Chlorinated chicken etc?

Tromking wrote: »

With or without the U.K., the EU faces an existential crisis as regards how it is viewed by its citizens. For an increasingly large amount of Europeans it is seen as a monolithic out of touch entity that seems incapable or unwilling to represent the hopes and fears of its people.

Maybe. Maybe a majority of EU citizens are well-versed in international law and comparative constitutional law, fully understand the exact mechanics of how the EU works, and don't like that.
Or, more likely, most EU citizens know next to nothing about how the EU works, don't know the difference between the Commission, the Council, and a group of mates down the pub, and simply vent their anger for a number of domestic issues which may or may not be the EU's fault.
I don't need to remind you that, since the dawn of time, directing people's anger at external culprits has always been a cheap political trick. E.g. Venezuela's conditions are not Maduro's fault, no, it's the economic war waged by US imperialism, etc.

Tromking wrote: »

It could have been so different, if only Brussels, Merkel and Hollande had read the runes and realised what was happening with the European people, but no they couldn’t wait to humiliate those notoriously poor Europeans, the Brits.

Please explain. I am not following. What should they have done? The EU is a club with very clear rules. You can leave, but you can't expect the club to change its rules just for you. What do you think the EU could and should have done? Again, please explain. Should they have allowed the UK free trade without free movement? Is that what you mean? Or something else?

Tromking wrote: »

You can like most angry Remainers disappear up your own jacksey wobbling on about buses and Boris, but the democratic imperative as expressed in the referendum remains.

Care to elaborate? Was the bus thing a huge lie, yes or no?
If it was, what is wrong in pointing out that a key principle of the leave campaign was a lie? What's so wrong about that? I appreciate you may not like it, but so what? Please explain.


Please also explain how you think the 'democrative imperative' should be interpreted. "Leaving" could have meant a gazillion different things. For some people it means crashing out with no deal. For others it doesn't. How do you interpret the vote? Please explain. It's not a minor detail - it's kind of a biggie, you know...

Ballard

I haven’t posted on one of these Brexit threads for ages. Why do you lot (both sides) still bother? Neither side will change their minds so just accept that and do something more interesting with your time.

My prediction is that through April and beyond Leavers will be telling us how wonderful everything is and how much freer they feel whilst Remainers will be saying that we are massively worse off.

I personally think that Brexit is something that the vast majority of us will regret whilst hoping to be wrong but I have completely accepted that it’ll happen regardless of my view. If I am right then I will get angry when (it’s definitely not an if) Leavers as a whole blame Remainers for the mess. I don’t intend to vent that anger on here though.

My message to both sides - do yourself a favour and give up posting on this subject. I have strong views but don’t even talk about it any more. Life is so much better without it.

Herzlos

I'd have thought the brexiteers would be more worried about the lack of any kind of plan. The most obvious reason there's no plan for brexit is that no-one actually intends it to happen.
How can you guys be so confident that you're not getting stitched up?

buglawton

gfplux wrote: »

I would like you to back up YOUR statement about Porsche Cayenne sales in Greece.
I am not calling you out but making statements like that need challenging. Perhaps you just made it up?
If you are repeating a lie then say so. If it is a lie does that make every “fact” you have repeated a lie?

Numbers are hard to come by but from a 2012 news article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17702226
2003 - 2012 Porsche had sold around 1,500 Porsche Cayennes in Greece since the launch of the luxury car nine years before.

In same article:
Income tax receipts in Greece as a percentage of GDP in 2012 were only 4.7%, the lowest in the eurozone and less than half the 10% in the UK.

Not sure what was meant by the income tax figures. I've seen figures of 39 and 34 percent respectively.

SouthLondonUser

Ballard wrote: »

I haven’t posted on one of these Brexit threads for ages. Why do you lot (both sides) still bother? Neither side will change their minds

It's a weird mix of sad and amusing to listen to the flawed reasoning of the Brexiteers. When you hear someone, like the genius earlier on this forum, say that the EU and the other European countries are "one-party states" because they don't have explicit shadow cabinets, well, I don't know if to laugh or cry. Laugh at how nonsensical, stupid and factually wrong such a statement is. Cry because democracy means that all votes count the same, so the votes of misinformed people who don't know what they are talking about count as much as those of those who do. There are many parts of the world where, if they were to hold a referendum, vaccines would probably be banned; but that would be a triumph for idiocy, not for democracy.


You see, 3 years ago, Brexiteers could stil say: don't worry your pretty little head, everything will be fine, we'll get a great deal, we hold all the cards, we'll have our cake and eat it, etc etc. But now? We are just a few weeks away from crashing out with no deal - what's the brilliant plan of the Brexiteers? What are they going to tell to all the people who currently trade with the EU on zero tariffs? This is a very specific and practical question; generic answers along the lines of "we'll be fine in the long run" don't cut it. Again, what do Brexiteers say to the sheep farmers whose business would die instantly in the case of no-deal? That they should hold tight till new trade deals with other countries are agreed? Again, the silence of the Brexiteers is deafening.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

I would like you to back up YOUR statement about Porsche Cayenne sales in Greece.
I am not calling you out but making statements like that need challenging. Perhaps you just made it up?
If you are repeating a lie then say so. If it is a lie does that make every “fact” you have repeated a lie?

On a per capita basis, that is actually true up to the point where the crisis hit Greece.

Arklight

Post Brexit, Brits saying "Oooarr," and "There be a Frenchman washed up from't shipwreck what lives in a tiny cage and is arlll covered in furrr." Expected to rise by 8000%