Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

MobileSaver

Ballard wrote: »

do yourself a favour and give up posting on this subject. I have strong views but don’t even talk about it any more.

An issue for me is that there are too many stupid people who will believe anything they read on the web. So when I see blatant lies from over-zealous Brexiteers I'm not going to sit back and do nothing but am going to call them out on it.

I'm sure there are Brexiteers who feel the same about Remainers but to my eyes at least it does seem to be predominantly Brexiteers coming up with the fake news; presenting speculation as fact and denying categoric statements from companies etc.

Tromking

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I am only responsible for what I say, not for what others say, and have no issue calling out what I think is nonsense, even if said by remainers.

I never said the UK cannot survive outside the EU. I have always thought and said it would be much worse off.
Why?

Because it does a lot of business with the EU. What would happen to all the trade now done on a zero-tariff base?

Maybe you can answer the question that Delingpole couldn't: what would happen to all the British sheep farmers? They currently export ca. half their lamb to Europe, with no tariffs. Under WTO rules, that lamb would be subject to a 40% tariff (as explained by the BBC - if you have more details I'm interested).

No, the country as a whole won't become Venezuela.
Over time, those farmers may even find other markets to sell to. But how long will that take? And what in the meanwhile?

As for other markets, how long do trade deals take? Surely you realise that the bargaining power of the UK is much smaller than that of the EU? Can you think of any single country that would want to prioritise the UK over the EU? And no, Trump's nonsense doesn't count - he has said many many things, mostly blatant lies.

And what if countries like India want us to relax immigration rules in exchange for trade deals? Many Leave voters didn't like the thought of mostly white, mostly Christian immigrants - are they going to be happy with non-white, non-Christian ones?

Or if the US want us to relax our food safety standards? Chlorinated chicken etc?


Maybe. Maybe a majority of EU citizens are well-versed in international law and comparative constitutional law, fully understand the exact mechanics of how the EU works, and don't like that.
Or, more likely, most EU citizens know next to nothing about how the EU works, don't know the difference between the Commission, the Council, and a group of mates down the pub, and simply vent their anger for a number of domestic issues which may or may not be the EU's fault.
I don't need to remind you that, since the dawn of time, directing people's anger at external culprits has always been a cheap political trick. E.g. Venezuela's conditions are not Maduro's fault, no, it's the economic war waged by US imperialism, etc.

Please explain. I am not following. What should they have done? The EU is a club with very clear rules. You can leave, but you can't expect the club to change its rules just for you. What do you think the EU could and should have done? Again, please explain. Should they have allowed the UK free trade without free movement? Is that what you mean? Or something else?


Care to elaborate? Was the bus thing a huge lie, yes or no?
If it was, what is wrong in pointing out that a key principle of the leave campaign was a lie? What's so wrong about that? I appreciate you may not like it, but so what? Please explain.


Please also explain how you think the 'democrative imperative' should be interpreted. "Leaving" could have meant a gazillion different things. For some people it means crashing out with no deal. For others it doesn't. How do you interpret the vote? Please explain. It's not a minor detail - it's kind of a biggie, you know...

Oh Dear.
Another one p*ssed at their world view not being shared by a majority of UK citizens and equally frit at the mere thought of an independent UK having an independent trade policy.
Most of the questions you've posed are a tad hackneyed now and have been answered to death on this thread, and TBH I can't be bothered to respond to them. Sorry.
Brexit is indeed a major leap of faith, which I thought long and hard about. If the UK does take a hit on leaving the EU, it'll be a hit consistent with the 6% of UK companies that trade with the EU.

SouthLondonUser

Oh, dear. Another one who can't answer a very simple question...

So what would you tell lamb farmers? Suck it up because, by trading with the EU, you are in the minority?

SouthLondonUser

Ps I wouldn't mind an independent trade policy if it were feasible. The problem is, Brexiteers have not shown it is. How long does it take to close trade deals? What before then? What bargaining power would the UK have? Surely you realise the empire is over, don't you? Very simple answers constantly met with a deafening silence.

Tromking

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Oh, dear. Another one who can't answer a very simple question...

So what would you tell lamb farmers? Suck it up because, by trading with the EU, you are in the minority?

A Geezer from South London says, think of the Lamb farmers.
You couldn't make it up.

Tromking

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Ps I wouldn't mind an independent trade policy if it were feasible. The problem is, Brexiteers have not shown it is. How long does it take to close trade deals? What before then? What bargaining power would the UK have? Surely you realise the empire is over, don't you? Very simple answers constantly met with a deafening silence.

Oh the Empire and colonial trope.
You're not very original are you?

Arklight

44% of the UK's trade is with the EU. Rather significant I think.

At this stage in the game anyone who is in denial about that isn't about to be talked around by mere facts and figures. Not when the game of raise you see you has got to where it has.

The problem is, Brexiters are bluffing the entire way and everyone can see their cards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43212899

LHW99

So what would you tell lamb farmers? Suck it up because, by trading with the EU, you are in the minority?

Perhaps to sell their lamb more into the UK? We appear to import almost as much mutton / lamb from around the world as we export:
beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/UK-Lamb-Trade-December-2018.xlsx
(also gives year to date).
If we wish to reduce emissions, using more local produce is the way to go IMO

Tromking

Arklight wrote: »

44% of the UK's trade is with the EU. Rather significant I think.

44% of the UK's export trade you mean of course.
I wouldn't want people to accuse you of hyperbole.

MobileSaver

Tromking wrote: »

Most of the questions you've posed are a tad hackneyed now and have been answered to death on this thread, and TBH I can't be bothered to respond to them. Sorry.

What you really mean of course is that you cannot answer the questions because they challenge your view that being part of the EU is a bad thing.